PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MANCHESTER CITY, ARSENAL v BRIGHTON and CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We have a massive Saturday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! With Christmas falling on a Thursday, Boxing Day was the calm before the storm this year with just one game for Friday Night Football and seven to enjoy on Saturday! With Manchester City, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Chelsea all in action in the Top Four, we should have a cracking day ahead. We kick off the action with Nottingham Forest hosting Manchester City – this is a chance for the first time in a very long time for Pep Guardiola’s men to go top of the table before Arsenal kick off at 3pm. Forest have been on a run of win-lose for the last six Premier League games – the good news for them is after losing last weekend against Fulham, they win here if that streak continues! City have really hit form though; especially since they got back into the race for the title. They have won their last five Premier League games; some crazy late goals involved but recently they have started to dominate. They come into this game off the back of three straight 3-0 wins; they did come against the likes of Sunderland, Crystal Palace and West Ham but it’s no surprise they come into the game as the odds on favourites.
Manchester City are trading 1.61 with Nottingham Forest 6.0 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. You’d have to say that Forest are still involved in the relegation battle for the time being given their position in 17th. However, they do have a five point cushion on West Ham and they are creating a lot this season – ironically, they are creating more this season compared to last season! The problem for Forest this season though is that they are basically conceding what they create – it’s hard to get away from City here at 1.61. They have been very impressive at the back lately; three clean sheets since the crazy 5-4 win. I actually feel we’ll see a pretty open game here – Forest games have been quite open this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading seven ticks bigger than the City win at 1.68 – the main worry with that bet in Sean Dyche setting his Forest side up to defend for 90 minutes. As he says himself, he changes his style of play to suit sides and I can’t see him going toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola. I do feel Forest will leak chances though, and while I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, I feel the City option offers marginally more value at 1.61.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNoMc
ARSENAL V BRIGHTON
3pm We have five games kicking off at 3pm, and easily the pick of them is Arsenal hosting Brighton. We also have Liverpool in action, but they will be fully expected to win at home to Wolves. Depending on the Manchester City result earlier in the day, Arsenal could kick off this game sitting in second spot for the first time in months. Obviously we still have that question of how will Arsenal handle the pressure of a title run-in hanging over them, especially with home easily they crumbled the last time City chased them down. Of course, it’s only halfway through the season so there’s plenty of drama to come! This should be an entertaining game – Brighton aren’t the type of side to just come here and defend – hopefully they will have a proper go. It’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.44 with Brighton 9.0 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Arsenal have been exceptional this season – they have the second best attacking figure and the best defensive figure in the Premier League. An average xG conceded of just 0.85 is the best defensive figure in Europe.
That’s an exceptionally impressive stat in a league as competitive as the Premier League. For example, Bayern Munich have an average xG conceded of 0.88 in the Bundesliga this season and we all know the gulf in class between them and the rest in Germany. While Arsenal have been controlling games and winning – Brighton approach things differently. They like to play an open game, however their last three Premier League games have had Under 2.5 goals collect. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Overs here either – Arsenal really like to keep their games tight and their defensive record speaks for itself. I was actually surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.74 when I clicked into the market – I felt it would be more 50/50. Although if Brighton go behind early, they will certainly chase the game and open things up. I couldn’t put anyone off a small bet on Under 2.5 goals here, but everything points to another Arsenal win here and the 1.44 is my most confident bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Arsenal to beat Brighton at 1.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLArBr
CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish Saturday with a cracker as Chelsea host Aston Villa. Surely we have to call this the highlight fixture of the day, and it’s a massive game for both sides too. Unai Emery and Villa have put together seven wins in a row in the Premier League – they actually have eleven wins from their last twelve Premier League games with the one loss coming away to Liverpool. Not only that, but Villa have been winning in Europe at the same time too. It’s exceptionally impressive considering they failed to score for the first four Premier League games and they only have an average xG created of 1.34 which is a mid-table attacking figure in the Premier League. They are actually conceding more chances than they are creating because their average xG conceded is 1.44 – talk about getting the most out of your resources. Villa find themselves coming into the weekend just three points behind Arsenal at the top of the table – they have a cushion of seven points on Chelsea who sit in fourth. If Villa win here – do we start including them in the title race discussion? I think we have to!
We should have a fascinating game ahead. Chelsea have been playing the better football compared to Villa this season, but they haven’t been getting the results. Just one win from their last five Premier League games means they come into this game under pressure – they aren’t massively under-performing in attack or defence; they just haven’t been getting over the line in games recently. We have a very interesting market – I’m sure there’s going to be some big opinions on the Chelsea price here! Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.92 with Aston Villa 4.3 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. I have to say, I’m in the lay camp on Chelsea – I really wasn’t expecting to see them trading odds on when I clicked into the market. I know Villa have been over-performing this season compared to their performance levels, but confidence in the camp must be sky high at the moment and you have to respect them for grinding out so many results. I just see this game being a lot closer than odds of 1.92 suggest on Chelsea, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the lay in what should be a close game.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Aston Villa at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLChAs
