SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v REAL MADRID and INTER MILAN v NAPOLI both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V REAL MADRID
7pm It’s a blockbuster Sunday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! We have some top class action from the Spanish Super Cup in Saudi Arabia and then we have the big two clashing in Serie A later as Inter Milan host Napoli. We kick off the action with an El Clasico Spanish Super Cup Final – Saudi Arabia definitely got the results they wanted in the Semi-Finals as Barcelona beat Athletic Bilbao 5-0 and Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid 2-1. I know we might lack the Spanish atmosphere, but every El Clasico has fireworks on the pitch and we have a trophy at stake here too. These two are going to battle it out for the La Liga title as well, so every blow is a mental edge as well – Real Madrid dealt Barcelona the first blow of the season with a dominant 2-1 win back in October. At that stage, they had a five point lead but then Real went through a very difficult run starting in November which seen only one win in five La Liga games. That also came at a time when we had rumours of the players not being happy with Xabi Alonso in training too. In fairness to Real, anyone looking at their performance levels knew they were still playing great football; it was just an unlucky run.
They basically finished each game with an xG of close to or over 2.0; they could have easily won them all. These two sides have actually been exceptional in attack this season – Barcelona marginally have the better attacking figure with an average xG created of 2.22 with Real just 0.01 behind that. Barcelona have also been marginally better at the back – they have an average xG conceded of 1.09 with Real just 0.07 off that too. There’s barely anything between the sides on performance levels. Barcelona come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with Real Madrid 3.55 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Given how close the sides have been this season, I do feel that the 2.04 is a little short on Barcelona – granted they have got the more results in La Liga. In the first El Clasico of the season, Real were much the better side – but they are without Mbappe here. We usually see goals at this tournament, and we usually see drama when these meet too – I feel this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.44 so the market is expecting goals, and Both Teams To Score is a little bit below that price too. I feel Overs will collect, but from a value point of view I prefer the Barcelona lay – I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Real Madrid at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SCBaRe
INTER MILAN V NAPOLI
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Sunday with another blockbuster clash! This time the big two clash in Italy as Inter Milan host Napoli. We had to go down to the final day of the season last time to find a title winner between these two with Napoli holding on – this season it looks like Inter Milan can take control and a win here would definitely put them in a very strong position. Inter dropped a few points early in the season, but anyone who likes xG figures knows that they have been playing the best football in Italy for a while now. They are just starting to pull away from AC Milan and Napoli – you’d could probably argue that Napoli need to get a result here to stay in the title race. More dropped points last weekend leaves them four points behind Inter now, and they aren’t going to close a seven point gap. Inter currently have an average xG created of 1.96 and an average xG conceded of just 0.99. That’s the best attacking and defensive figures in Serie A – the only team with an average xG conceded under 1.0 which is very impressive. Basically, they are title winning figures.
Compare that to Napoli who have an average xG created of 1.55, but they do have the second best defensive figure with an average xG conceded of 1.09. This should be an interesting game – obviously both sides have been very impressive at the back, but Inter have been much better going forward and also have home advantage. It’s no surprise then to see Inter come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.8 with Napoli 5.6 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. While Inter have been exceptionally strong this season, the 1.8 doesn’t jump off the page as massive value – it’s hard to make a very strong argument that they should be 1.7 for example; especially with Napoli so strong at the back as well – they have grinded out plenty of results this season and already bagged the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia. I feel we’ll get quite a cagey game here, and Under 2.5 goals looks nice value at 1.86 – at six ticks bigger than the Inter win, I feel that offers a lot more value.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAInNa
