SONY OPEN: It’s a new year and a new season on the PGA Tour, which means the Hawaiian Islands are at the center of the golfing universe this week, specifically the island of Oahu, where Honolulu’s Waialae Country Club will host the event now known as the Sony Open for the 70th consecutive year. This tournament’s list of champions includes some of the greats of the game, names like Nicklaus, Trevino, and Crenshaw, and in more recent years players like Justin Thomas, Cam Smith, and Hideki Matsuyama. But it’s also carved out a reputation as an “everyman’s tourney” where some of golf’s grinders, strivers, and journeymen find success that, in some cases, they may never find again (Fabian Gomez, Patton Kizzire, the late Grayson Murray…). There is a hopeful, low pressure, “game on” type of vibe at this event that always makes it a fun watch.
Waialae is a par-70 that tips out at just 7,044 yards, making it one of the shortest layouts on Tour, but it challenges players with tight doglegs, well-placed bunkers, sticky Bermuda rough, and tricky green complexes that nearly always play firm and fast. When the wind lays down the course will yield plenty of birdies, but if it starts blowing things can get really tricky out there, and we’ve certainly seen years — Cam Smith’s victory in 2020 comes to mind — when it’s a 4-day grind and the winner is lucky to reach 10-under. Canada’s Nick Taylor got the job done last year, shooting 65-65 on the weekend to post 16-under 264, and then going birdie-birdie in the playoff to outlast Nico Echavarria. It was Taylor’s fifth PGA Tour win but his lone victory of 2025, and after a few uninspiring months he’s now slipped outside the top-50 in the world rankings and is trading at a longish 70.0 this week. (take note, Taylor believers!)
This feels like a week with no clear-cut favorite, though Russell Henley (12.5) has assumed that mantle in the worldwide markets and on the BETDAQ exchange. He’s joined at the top of the market by the likes of J.J. Spaun (20.0), Collin Morikawa (21.0), and Hideki Matsuyama (24.0), and there appears to be some nice value a bit further down the board, with both proven champions and some young up-and-comers sitting with fat prices next to their names. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Corey Conners (29.0)- It’s been a while since Conners won — the 2023 Valero Texas Open, to be exact — but he’s maintained a very high level of play, posting seven top-10 finishes in 2025, and he enters this week on a bit of a hot streak, having finished 4th in the Tour Championship, 7th in December’s Hero World Challenge, and T5 in the Grant Thornton Invitational the following week, where he posted 23-under over three rounds. He’ll be looking to start the year off with a bang at a place where he’s had lots of success in the past, posting four top-15 finishes at this tournament in his past six appearances, including a 3rd-place showing in 2019. Clearly, Conners feels comfortable with the sightlines around Waialae, a course that favors the right-to-left ballflight that has become his calling card. If he catches some heat with the putter this week, look out: he’ll be awfully tough to beat.
Maverick McNealy (55.0)- While McNealy has only one PGA Tour victory on his resume, the 2024 RSM Classic, he’s an ascending player who had his best season yet in 2025, logging five top-5 finishes, including a runner-up at the Genesis Invitational, and moving all the way up to No. 21 in the world rankings. He finished the year hot, with a 3rd-place finish at the BMW Championship, the next-to-last playoff event, and a T13 at the Procore Championship in a one-off Fall Series start. He should have plenty of confidence at Waialae after making the cut in all four of his career appearances at this event and finishing 7th in 2023. McNealy is an elite young player trading at a whopping 55.0 this week… he might be the best value on the board at that price. A definite contender.
Eric Cole (75.0)- Cole is your consummate journeyman, a longtime veteran of professional golf’s “mini tour” circuit before finally breaking through and earning his PGA Tour card in 2023, at the age of 34. He then went on to win Rookie of the Year and has been a fierce competitor in his three years on the big circuit, though he has yet to break through with his first PGA Tour win. If you’re looking for a dark horse this week, though, a true “live dog” who has the ability to shock some people and make you rich while doing so, Cole just might be your guy. He played really well throughout the Fall Series, finishing T9 at Sanderson Farms, 10th at the WWTC, and 21st at the RSM. He now comes to one of his favorite venues on Tour, Waialae, where he has made the cut in all three of his appearances and has improved his finishing position each year, from 61st in 2023, to T13 in 2024, to solo 5th last year. He has all the ingredients and has shown the ability to compete at a high level at Waialae. Cole is a great bet this week at a price like 75.0.
