PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews LEEDS v ARSENAL, CHELSEA v WEST HAM and LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V ARSENAL
3pm Another cracking Saturday in the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have had a massive week of football with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stages finishing, so we don’t have an early kick off to enjoy this Saturday. We kick off the day with a fascinating fixture as Leeds host Arsenal at Elland Road – could we say that Arsenal are coming under a little pressure after dropping points for three games in a row last weekend against Manchester United. Manchester City have dropped plenty of points too recently, but the gap is at four points coming into this weekend now. You have to feel that this is a huge game for both sides for totally different reasons – Arsenal need to steady the ship and the nerves in the title race while Leeds are trying to stay clear of the relegation battle after West Ham picked up back-to-back wins. Leeds come into this weekend with a six point cushion over the bottom three, but you have to feel they’ll be looking over their shoulder for the time being. Leeds have been playing some decent football this season when you look at the underlying numbers. Their average xG created is 1.42 which is a solid mid-table figure in the Premier League; you’d expect them to avoid relegation if they continue to play like that.
As you would expect, Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.58 with Leeds 6.8 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Arsenal have the best defensive record in the Premier League, they have been immense at the back. Their average xG conceded is just 0.89 – that’s sensational – the most impressive defensive figure from any of the top leagues in Europe. With that being said, I still feel the criticism they face is valid – they created very little from open play and Arteta always tends to be too cagey. They are trading a similar price here to the Liverpool and Manchester United games when they had home advantage – I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.58. Leeds will make this difficult at home – Elland Road is a tough place to go and Leeds have shown they can create chances. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, and although I feel this is a game for small stakes, I do feel Leeds can get onto the score sheet at some stage. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.1 and that looks a shade of value in my opinion. I know Arsenal have been superb at the back, but Leeds have been impressive going forward and with home advantage, I’d have BTTS a little shorter.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLeAr
CHELSEA V WEST HAM
5.30pm Next we have a London Derby as Chelsea host West Ham. Chelsea were involved in a massive midweek Champions League game away to Napoli. It was a very entertaining game, and Chelsea scored late to win 3-2 and knock Napoli out of the Champions League! It’ll be very interesting to see can West Ham keep their momentum here – Spurs and Sunderland have played some very poor football at times this season so I’m not reading too much into the back-to-back wins for the Hammers; however surely those results finally gives them some hope in the relegation battle. They’re still five points adrift of safety, and Nottingham Forest and Leeds have much better under-lining numbers. West Ham’s numbers make for grim reading. Their average xG created is just 1.21 which is fourth worst in the entire Premier League. As much as they’ve struggled in front of goal, at the back it’s even worse. Their average xG conceded is 1.75 which is the second worst defensive figure in the league. They’re conceding close to two goals per game on average which tells you they’ve been getting absolutely battered at the back. You don’t win many games while conceding two goals!
It feels like Chelsea have had a rollercoaster of a season already. They were getting spoken about as title challengers at one point, went through a terrible run, changed manager and now if they want to get back into the top four they have to start winning games like this. As you would expect with home advantage and how poor West Ham have been this season, Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.56 with West Ham 6.6 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. While Chelsea should get the job done here, the 1.56 doesn’t exactly jump off the page – obviously it’s a low level but this is West Ham’s current high point of the season given the back-to-back wins! Once again I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. In my opinion, this game screams goals and Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.58 – just two ticks bigger than the Chelsea win, but I feel this is a much better option. West Ham have been all over the place at the back this season, and Chelsea have been sloppy too. I can see this being a very open and end-to-end game with plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch. I’m happy with a confident bet on Overs!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLChWh
LIVERPOOL V NEWCASTLE
8pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with a cracker as Liverpool host Newcastle at Anfield. Both sides were involved in midweek action in the Champions League; Liverpool had no dramas in an easy home win, but Newcastle dropped out of the top eight – but they were away to PSG so they were always up against it. It’s fair to say that both sides desperately need to put a few wins together in the Premier League. I thought the 1-1 draw at home to Burnley a few weeks ago was a reminder that Liverpool aren’t the ruthless machine they once were, but the 3-2 loss away to Bournemouth last weekend was exceptionally disappointing too. Again, just sloppy at the back and that’s been the problem all season. They actually have the second best attacking figure in the Premier League with an average xG created of 1.74 but they have a big battle on their hands for a Top Four finish. They’ve gone five Premier League games without a win again – it’s actually five wins from their last 18 games. Not exactly the stat you want to see from an odds on favourite. Liverpool are trading 1.86 with Newcastle 4.3 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
Liverpool are creating chances for fun and they should be scoring more than they are; the same can be said about Newcastle who have the fifth best attacking figure but come into the weekend sitting down in 9th. Newcastle would actually jump over Liverpool on goal difference with a win here, so you could say this is a massive game for both sides in the race for European football next season! Newcastle have been playing some good football this season, but they just haven’t been getting over the line in enough games. Newcastle have the quality to cause problems here, and with both sides underperforming in front of goal this could easily be closer than the odds suggest. Liverpool have leaked far too many chances this season too, and I couldn’t put anyone off a small lay on Liverpool at 1.86. Another option has to be Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with both sides creating so much, and they haven’t exactly been solid at the back either – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very open game. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but for me the Liverpool lay offers marginally more value to finish what is a cracking Saturday in the Premier League!
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Newcastle at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLiNe
