FAVOURITES FALL LIKE THE RAIN: The long-weekend mudbath has been a bloodbath for favourites, with major reversals at Sandown, Leopardstown and Musselburgh, despite small fields. Even on AW, nine favourites failed to reach the frame!
Big-race flops
Kitzbuhel 10-11 fav (unseated rider)
(Kala Conti 2nd 2-1) same race; 4 ran
Fortunate Man 3rd 11-10 fav 4 finished
Mossy Fen Road 2nd 1-3 fav 4 ran
Dedicated Hero 7-4 fav (unseated rider) 4 finished
Final Demand 3rd 30-100 fav 4 ran
Marine Nationale 2nd 5-4 fav (btn 19l) 5 finished
Lossiemouth 2nd 4-6 fav 5 ran
Plus FIVE unplaced favourites at Newcastle and FOUR unplaced at Lingfield, both on Saturday.
HEARTBREAK FOR CHELTENHAM
⭕ 1.15 Leopardstown This 2m 6f novice hurdle has gone to Willie Mullins six times in the decade but subsequent form at Cheltenham has been heartbreaking for punters who bet the follow-on: the 10 winners of this finished 0402222433 at Prestbury Park.
You would have been better off trying to spot an Albert Bartlett outsider hidden down the field in this Leopardstown test.
The fourth horse in 2024 improved to score at Cheltenham for Gordon Elliott: 33-1 Stellar Story, turning over the form with the Leopardstown Mullins winner.
In 2021, the subsequent 14-1 Albert Bartlett winner at Cheltenham, Vanillier (Gavin Cromwell), had been 10th of 13 in this Leopardstown race, again behind a Mullins winner.
BETDAQ this morning: Santo Sospir (6.9), improving all the time, has Sean Bowen getting in on the act but presumably Jack Kennedy preferred Kazansky (7.7).
Together they are a big threat for Gordon Elliott over Willie Mullins’ favourite, Dr Steinberg.
BEWARE JUVENILE FAVOURITE
⭕ 1.50 Leopardstown LAYS LOGIC: Juvenile hurdle with five winners out of 10 going to Willie Mullins.. but none of them favourite! In fact, twice when he won, his own hot-pot favourite was second!
Kargese and Marlborough, winner and third in this in 2024, finished one-two (but the other way round) in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Quilixios (Gordon Elliott 2021) and Vauban (Willie Mullins 20/22) both won this and went on to Triumph success.
Betdaq Betting Exchange this morning: Willie Mullins 3 runners, Gordon Elliott 3 leaves only one gatecrasher to their private party.
Narciso Has was no match for Mange Tout (3.1) at Fairyhouse in November.
WHY ROMEO IS A COOL BET
⭕ 2.55 Leopardstown (Irish Arkle) The Irish Arkle winner of the last decade has finished 101-0-3133 in the Cheltenham Arkle, just Douvan, Footpad and El Fabiolo doing the double.
Romeo Coolio is a Hot Spot Twice a Grade-1 winner this season, he goes for the shorter of his two entries at this Dublin Festival, ‘the sensible thing to do in the heavy ground,’ according to his trainer.
Kargese was beaten 16 lengths in a Grade-2 mares’ chase by Kala Conti, who disappointed over further at Sandown on Saturday.
WARRIOR A FIGHTER IN MUD
⭕ 3.30 Leopardstown (Irish Gold Cup) Sizing John (2017) and Galopin des Champs (2023 and 2024) are the Irish ‘gold’ stars to go on and win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the decade.
But ‘Galopin’ has had his hat-trick of Gold Cups in this Irish version and it’s a moderate field if a 10-year-old can win it.
Gaelic Warrior for the same Willie Mullins stable has soft-heavy form of 1121111, whereas ‘Gallopin’ has never won on officially ’heavy’ ground.
‘Galopin’ is 11111113 over fences at Leopardstown whereas the Warrior has yet to win here but has been outstanding four times in a row for a treble at Aintree, Sandown and Punchestown before a short-head defeat in the Kempton King George.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.15 Leopardstown (win 30)
BET 5pts win SANTO SOSPIR
BET 4.2pts win KAZANSKY
1.50 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 5pts win MANGE TOUT
★ 2.55 Leopardstown (Hot Spot)
BET 20pts win ROMEO COOLIO (supernap)
3.30 Leopardstown (Hot Spot)
BET 20pts win GAELIC WARRIOR
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