LA LIGA SUNDAY: The Ultra previews VALENCIA v REAL MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
VALENCIA V REAL MADRID
8pm The focus on Sunday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange is on La Liga as Valencia host Real Madrid at the Mestalla! This is a huge game for both sides for very different reasons. Real Madrid are in the middle of a fascinating title race with Barcelona – there’s only one point between them coming into the weekend, but obviously Barcelona will be fully expected to beat Mallorca on Saturday. They are currently trading 1.16 to win that, so Real should be four points behind kicking off here. Meanwhile, Valencia sit just one spot point of the relegation zone coming into the weekend so every game is massive for them at the moment. They desperately need to start picking up points, and obviously fixtures don’t come much tougher than Real Madrid.
The Xabi Alonso era is over and the Real Madrid players seem to be happy with that – we definitely saw a boost in effort after he went, which is generally a clear sign he had lost the dressing room. There were plenty of rumours about player power winning out, and ironically fans noticed how much more active Mbappe was tracking back in their first game after Alonso left. The narrative now is that Real Madrid need a manager, not a coach. Regardless of how you feel about that, it seems to have given the players a new lease of life and they looked much sharper with their effort levels. That spark seems to be back, and generally you want to support Real in the market when you see that.
Given how poor Valencia have been this season, it’s no surprise that Real come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.57 with Valencia 6.0 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. I actually expected to see Real trading shorter before clicking into the market. When you look at the underlying numbers, the gulf in class is clear. Real Madrid have the second best attacking figure in La Liga with an average xG created of 2.21 per game – only Barcelona are ahead of them on 2.25. At the back, they’ve also been solid with an average xG conceded of 1.14 which is again the second best defensive figure in the league. There’s very little between the top two, but Barcelona deserve to be marginally ahead.
Valencia’s numbers make for pretty grim reading. Their average xG created is just 1.24 which is in the bottom six attacking figures in La Liga – more-or-less in line with their table position. At the back, they have been conceding more chances than they are creating with an average xG conceded of 1.43; not too bad on its own but given they’ve been so limited in attack it becomes a problem. They’ve been leaking chances all season and Real Madrid are the last team you want to face! I can’t see past a comfortable win for Real here, and I have to say that the 1.57 jumps off the page as cracking value. I would have Real sub 1.5 here; Valencia are there for the taking and given the new lease of life Real here – I’m happy with a Five Star NAP to finish the weekend!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Valencia at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLVaRe
