PREMIER LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Striker previews BRENTFORD v ARSENAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRENTFORD V ARSENAL
8pm We have a cracker to finish the midweek round of Premier League fixtures on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Brentford host Arsenal in what should be a fascinating game with Brentford flying high this season. Brentford are massively over-performing based on the underlying numbers this season. Their average xG created is only 1.27 which puts them in the bottom six attacking figures, however their fans won’t care about that as they come into the midweek round of fixtures sitting up in seventh. Villa fans are calling Unai Emery the xG killer; we have a similar situation at Brentford!
Brentford have also been poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.51 which is also in the bottom six defensive figures. On those numbers alone, you’d have them sitting somewhere between 13th and 16th – certainly not seventh! Credit has to go to Andrews for squeezing every last drop out of this squad, but the question is always how long can it continue? Arsenal on the other hand are playing superb football. their average xG conceded of 0.88 is the best defensive figure in the Premier League by a comfortable margin, and their average xG created of 1.74 is the joint-second best attacking figure. Those are title winning numbers, and you can see why they are six points clear at the top coming into this week. It could have been more too, but for Manchester City’s absolutely stunning comeback at Anfield to beat Liverpool 2-1 with a late Haaland penalty at the weekend. City are hanging in there and putting some pressure on.
It’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites. Arsenal are trading 1.74 with Brentford 5.2 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Despite Brentford’s brilliant results this season, I do feel the 1.74 on Arsenal is too high to ignore. There’s just a massive gulf in class between the sides on performance levels, and Arteta have been excellent at grinding out wins away from home in games like this. Brentford have shown they can hurt the big sides here; ask Liverpool and United – so I’m not going to get carried away with the stakes, but I do feel the best value on offer is the Arsenal win.
Arsenal have been outstanding at the back but they’ve only kept two clean sheets in their last six away games. Brentford have been scoring goals for fun, but they haven’t exactly been creating good quality chances and they are scoring from very low xG figures. Those factors would make me stay away from having a strong opinion on the goals market – Over 2.5 goals is marginally favourite there at 1.93 but you can understand why it’s such a relatively even betting heat. All things considered, I’m happy with a confident bet on Arsenal – if Brentford weren’t getting so many results it would be a Five Star NAP but I am happy with three points at 1.74.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Brentford at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBrAr
