FA CUP SATURDAY: The Striker previews ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE and LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V NEWCASTLE
5.45pm We have a cracking all-Premier League FA Cup Fourth Round fixture list to enjoy on Saturday evening on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Liverpool host Brighton later, but we kick off the action with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle. Villa got back to winning ways midweek in the Premier League as they ground out a 1-0 win over Brighton in midweek thanks to a late own goal, so they come into this one on the back of a positive result even if the performance wasn’t vintage – classic Aston Villa this week. Their fans have been calling Unai Emery the xG killer – a draw would have been a fair result midweek! Newcastle also recorded a much needed win after three straight losses – a 2-1 win at Spurs and that was the end of Thomas Frank at Spurs. Newcastle have actually been playing better football compared to Villa this season but they haven’t been getting the results – Newcastle have an average xG created of 1.58 compared to Villa’s 1.46. Villa have been massively over-performing all season in the Premier League, but Newcastle haven’t been taking their chances. It’s actually quite easy to pick holes in both sides, and it will be interesting to see do they change their tactics here in a Cup game.
It’s no surprise that Villa come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. Villa are trading 2.34 with Newcastle 3.15 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Villa won 2-0 at St James’ Park last month when the sides met – they actually finished that game with a higher xG figure but Newcastle did also finish the game with an xG of 1.67 so it was quite an open game. There’s a concern over Bruno Guimaraes who hobbled off against Spurs with a potential hamstring issue – if he misses out that’s a massive blow for Newcastle. That being said, I do feel we’ll see a closer game than the odds suggest on Villa – the 2.34 feels a little short given Newcastle have been playing better. They have a better attacking figure and defensive figure compared to Villa. Another option has to be Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 – as I said the Premier League game recently was very open despite there only being two goals, and I feel we’ll have an entertaining game here. I wouldn’t put anyone off either bet, but I do feel there’s marginally more value in the Overs bet at 1.7 with both sides leaking chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAAsNe
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
8pm We finish the FA Cup action with a fantastic 8pm kick off as Liverpool host Brighton. I know these fixtures can be an issue for the away fans, but from a TV viewer point of view I do enjoy an 8pm Saturday slot. Liverpool had to grind out a 1-0 win midweek away to Sunderland, but they created much more and it was probably a classic example of their season as they’ve haven’t been taking all their chances. They have also been sloppy at the back, so it was positive to see a clean sheet. Especially given the Black Cats’ unbeaten home record this season – even allowing for the fact that they’ve been massively over-performing this season. It will be fascinating to see what starting XI Liverpool name here – surely this is a competition Liverpool will be desperate to do well in too given the season they’ve had. The FA Cup represents a genuine shot at silverware for Arne Slot’s side, even though Jurgen Klopp often looked down at the competition! Brighton are having a really tough time of it. They lost 1-0 at Villa in midweek and have now won just twice across all competitions since December. Fabian Hurzeler must have been looking at the Thomas Frank decision midweek and wondering is he next – one win from 13 Premier League games, and that was at home to Burnley.
As you would expect Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites with home advantage. Liverpool are trading 1.57 with Brighton 5.7 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. While I want to be against Brighton at the moment, the 1.57 on Liverpool doesn’t exactly jump off the page as good value given Liverpool have dropped plenty of points this season. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here – Liverpool have an average xG created of 1.76 which is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League; I’d expect them to win but they have been sloppy at the back. Brighton have an average xG created of 1.49 which is a mid-table figure in the Premier League, but they enjoy playing an open game. I can’t see Liverpool sitting back here either, so we should have an entertaining game. Over 2.5 goals is trading around 1.52 and Both Teams To Score is 1.61 – there’s only five ticks in the difference between the Overs and Liverpool price, and I feel the Overs option offers much more value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FALiBr
