SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI V ROMA
7.45pm The focus on Betdaq Betting Exchange from Europe on Sunday is again Serie A with another cracker as Napoli host Roma! This is a huge game for both sides as they battle it out for a top four spot – only three points between them. Napoli have to be looking to put together a strong run of domestic form after what was a hugely disappointing Champions League campaign. Being eliminated at the group stage was quite embarrassing for the reigning Serie A champions to not even make the top 24 which is “easy” given the new format! Roma obviously have been short of top four standard in Serie A, but they are playing some very good football this season – getting a result here is basically exactly what they need at this stage of the season.
We have an open betting heat with Napoli coming into the game as the favourites at 2.48 with Roma 3.65 and the draw is 3.05 at the time of writing. Napoli have only lost once in nine Serie A games but it feels like Inter have almost closed the door on them in the title race. The performance levels haven’t been spectacular. Their average xG created is 1.50 which is the seventh best attacking figure in Serie A – Roma have actually been creating more this season – their average xG created of 1.61 is the fourth best attacking figure. Both sides have been fantastic at the back – Roma have an average xG conceded of 1.11 and Napoli are just behind them on 1.15. Both figures are in the top five. Roma have been exceptionally tight at the back – they’ve only conceded 14 goals in 24 games! Sides have been taking roughly half of their chances created against them, but the 1.11 figure is exceptionally good even if they are getting away with things slightly.
When you look at the xG figures alone, Roma are the better performing side in both attack and defence. The problem for Roma has been converting their chances; they’ve been very wasteful in front of goal this season. The Maradona is always a tough place to go, and Napoli have been solid at home this season – they haven’t lost a home league game yet. These sides have had some very tight games in recent years; Under 2.5 goals has collected in four of the last five meetings. It’s hard to see anything bar a very close game here, Roma’s away form is the concern though – they lost at Udinese last time out on the road and their away performance levels aren’t overly impressive.
I feel this is going to be a very tight and cagey affair. Both sides have been very impressive at the back – both are conceding very little goals and they are both in the top five defensive figures too. Roma’s games have been notoriously tight this season too; Over 2.5 goals landed in only five of their 24 games which is quite the stat. The head-to-head record also points towards a tight game – it’s hard to get away from Under 2.5 goals here. However, that’s trading 1.56 so the market is obviously expecting a tight game too. I feel that will collect, but it’s hardly outstanding value – I prefer the draw which makes a lot of appeal at 3.05. Everything screams a very tight game here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Draw at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SANaRo
