BUNDESLIGA/LA LIGA SATURDAY: The Ultra previews BAYER LEVERKUSEN v BAYERN MUNICH and REAL MADRID v ELCHE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm We have a cracking Saturday from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week! We have action from the Bundesliga and La Liga to enjoy with Bayern Munich and Real Madrid both in action. We kick the day off in Germany as Bayer Leverkusen host Bayern Munich – it wasn’t so long ago that this was a top of the table clash with so much on the line; but Leverkusen have now sold their best players and Xabi Alonso has moved on since they lifted the Bundesliga title. Now Bayern are back to dominating the Bundesliga; they have an eleven point lead coming into this weekend. When you look at the underlying numbers, this Bayern side has simply been on a different planet to everyone else in the Bundesliga this season. Their average xG created of 2.30 is the best attacking figure by a distance, and their average xG conceded of 1.02 is the best defensive figure too. They hammered Atalanta 6-1 midweek in the Champions League; that was away from home too! I was going to say what an advantage it will be to be able to rest their key players towards the end of the Bundesliga season, but they will be able to rest players for the second leg against Atalanta as well!
Obviously Leverkusen have had a difficult season. It all went wrong very quickly when they sacked Erik ten Hag two games into the season! In hindsight, that seems to be the right call given the situation had turned toxic very quickly, but they haven’t exactly recovered from the dramatic start. They sit sixth in the table – a dramatic comedown from the title-winning, unbeaten side of 2023/24. Their average xG created of 1.57 is the sixth best attacking figure, so basically they are in line with performance levels. They have been sloppy at the back and leaking far too many chances as well – an average xG conceded of 1.42 is also sixth best. Not exactly the type of defensive figure to want to bring into a game against Bayern. It’s no surprise to see Bayern come in as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.63 with Bayer Leverkusen 5.3 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. Bayern have been in unstoppable form this season, and I do feel the 1.63 jumps off the page as cracking value. Leverkusen are nowhere near the force of old, and with Bayern in such good form, I’m happy to have a Five Star NAP at 1.63 to start the weekend!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BDBaBy
REAL MADRID V ELCHE
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Saturday night as Real Madrid host Elche. Real Madrid almost certainly had their minds elsewhere this week – they faced Manchester City here on Wednesday night in the first leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie. They steadied the domestic ship with a win last weekend away to Celta Vigo, but every game is massive in La Liga at the moment given they are trying to chase down Barcelona at the top of the table. That Celta Vigo win was huge – they suffered back-to-back defeats to Osasuna and Getafe, which had opened up a four point gap to Barcelona, before their much needed last-gasp winner at Celta Vigo last Friday kept them in the race! This is a game that Real will be fully expected to win – they come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.26 with Elche 13.0 and the draw is 7.4 at the time of writing. Elche are heavily involved in the relegation battle, so Real absolutely cannot afford to slip up here in the title race – especially after the recent drama they have been through.
Real Madrid have an excellent record against Elche – as you would expect – but given the situation I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.26. Obviously there’s the angle that this fixture falls in between the massive Champions League tie, but also there’s no prizes for tipping 1.26 shots anyway. I just wouldn’t include them in an Acca this weekend. Elche are quite average though, their average xG created is only 1.32 and their average xG conceded of 1.57 is in the bottom five defensive figures. I do feel this is a game for small stakes – I can see Real winning but not quite in style. Given the injury situation and the Champions League exertions midweek – even though they were exceptionally impressive against Manchester City, I wouldn’t be confident about handicap markets here. The City result probably does reduce the fact that Real might have rested players here. Elche are trading 1.51 with a 2.5 goal handicap, and that looks a shade of value in my opinion. If Elche can score at some stage too, that should make life difficult for Real handicap backers.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Elche +2.5 goals to beat Real Madrid at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLReEl
