FA CUP SUNDAY: The Striker previews WEST HAM v LEEDS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V LEEDS
4.30pm The FA Cup Quarter-Finals are taking centre stage this weekend and we have one fixture on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Sunday as West Ham host Leeds. A place in the a Wembley Semi-Final is on the line, and for two sides embroiled in a Premier League relegation scrap, this is a massive clash. West Ham sit in the bottom three, four points adrift of Leeds who occupy 15th place. Even leaving aside the situation in the Premier League, it’s not often these two would get a big day out in Wembley anyway. West Ham will obviously be delighted to have home advantage, but Leeds have been playing the better football this season.
Leeds have anaverage xG created of 1.38 which is a perfectly respectable mid-table attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.40 is mid-table level too. Usually when you are basically creating what you are conceding in any of the major European leagues, that puts you in mid-table. Leeds have struggled to convert their chances though, and they’ve conceded more than they should which has put them in a little danger in the relegation battle. Obviously West Ham are under immense pressure in the relegation battle – they looked nailed on to go down earlier in the season but they have been getting results recently.
The under-lining numbers are poor for West Ham. They have an average xG created of just 1.17 – that’s the joint-third worst attacking figure in the Premier League. That’s obviously very poor, but the bigger concern is at the back: their average xG conceded of 1.79 is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Their performance levels are relegation standard; no surprise they’ve been in the bottom three for most of the season. It’s easy to poke holes in both sides here to be honest, and it’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open market. West Ham are the favourites at 2.48 with Leeds 2.96 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing.
Leeds have played the much better football this season, and I feel we should have an even more open market here. I’d have West Ham a little bigger, and Leeds a little lower. For a side in their first season back in the top flight – having been one of the pre-season relegation favourites too – they have done quite well. Farke has clearly drilled them well. They create chances, and we know that West Ham will give them chances here too. The sides have met once this season already – Leeds won 2-1 at Elland Road back in October, they are due to meet again on the final day of the season. That could be a huge relegation decider – there’s more than just a place a Wembley at stake here then, there’s a mental edge to be gained. I’m happy to lay West Ham at 2.48 – I feel that’s the value call in what should be a close game.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Leeds at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAWeLe
