CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v ATLETICO MADRID and PSG v LIVERPOOL both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm It’s another blockbuster night from the Champions League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have another two cracking Quarter-Finals Wednesday night and it doesn’t get much bigger than this – it’s just a shame that they both kick off at the same time! We kick off the evening in with Barcelona hosting Atletico Madrid at theCamp Nou in the first leg of an all-Spanish tie. As if two meetings in a week wasn’t dramatic enough, these sides actually faced each other in La Liga on Saturday, meaning this is already their second clash of the week. Atletico took the lead in that game, but went down to ten men and Barcelona ended up winning 2-1 away from home. A huge result for them considering Real Madrid lost earlier in the day at Mallorca. Barcelona are the odds on favourites here, and it’s difficult to argue against them at home. The xG table from La Liga tells the story perfectly; Barcelona have the best attacking figure with an average xG created of 2.2 and although Atletico are sitting in third, they are quite a bit off that with a figure of 1.62. Barcelona also have an average xG conceded of 1.06 which is the best defensive figure as well. They are dominant in both boxes. It’s hard to go against them here given what we saw only a few days ago.
Barcelona are trading 1.58 with Atletico Madrid 5.6 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. The biggest blow for Barcelona is the absence of Raphinha, who suffered a hamstring injury on international duty with Brazil and is ruled out for around five weeks, but obviously they dealt with that at the weekend. It does place an even greater burden on the brilliant Lamine Yamal though. Atletico knocked Barcelona out of the Champions League Quarter-Finals in both 2013/14 and 2015/16. More recently, they pulled off a stunning 4-0 first-leg Copa del Rey win at the Metropolitano in February, before Barcelona hit back 3-0 in the return but fell just short on aggregate. These sides have actually met a lot this season already, and with home advantage, it’s hard to see past Barcelona here. There’s no doubt that Diego Simeone will set Atletico up here to defend – surely they will be viewing this fixture as a case of “getting through the 90 minutes with as little damage as possible” so I would expect Atletico to try make the game cagey. Although Overs has a good record when these sides meet, that would put me off backing it this time. I feel the best value option is the Barcelona win at 1.58 – I’d have them a couple of ticks shorter given how important home advantage is to Atletico.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLBaAt
PSG V LIVERPOOL
8pm Next we move over to Paris for another massive fixture as PSG host Liverpool at the Parc des Princes. This is a rematch of their last-16 tie from last season – a nerve-jangling affair that PSG eventually won on penalties after the tie was level at 1-1 on aggregate. PSG went on to lift the trophy. Liverpool actually won 1-0 here; how much would they love that score line again. You could actually poke holes in both these sides this season. PSG “only” lead by four points in Ligue 1 – they usually have the title in the bag by now, and it was only one point before Lens lost at the weekend. Liverpool have obviously found points hard to come by in the Premier League this season and Arne Slot has been having a difficult time. They were hammered by Man City in the FA Cup at the weekend at the Quarter-Final stage; Slot will be hoping for some Quarter-Final joy here rather than more woe! Liverpool have been under-performing for a large part of the season – they have an average xG created of 1.75 which is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.28 is also joint-third. They sit outside the top four though, mainly through being sloppy at the back.
While I’m blaming them for being sloppy at the back, they haven’t been converting their chances either. They cannot afford to miss chances here; the Parisians have been absolutely rampant – they crushed Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate in the last 16 – and they come into this as the clear favourites on their own patch. PSG are trading 1.8 with Liverpool 4.6 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. In the Last 16 last season, the first leg in Paris was a smash-and-grab 1-0 Liverpool win – they had just 0.25 xG but Alisson made an extraordinary ten or so saves. PSG then absolutely dominated the second leg at Anfield, generating a remarkable 2.56 xG – the highest xG any visiting team recorded at Anfield all season. They basically looked like they had Liverpool’s number, and that was peak Liverpool under Arne Slot too. PSG’s home form in the Champions League this season has been excellent, and looking at how City took Liverpool apart at the weekend, it’s hard to look past the 1.8 on PSG here with home advantage. Another bet to consider has to be Over 2.5 goals at 1.53, but I feel the PSG win offers much more value and I’m happy with a confident bet to finish the Quarter-Final first legs!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Liverpool at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLPsLv
