LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews REAL MADRID v GIRONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V GIRONA
8pm Friday Night Football from Europe this week on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from La Liga, and we have a cracker too as Real Madrid host Girona at the Bernabeu! It’s been a tough week for the home side – they really need to bounce back here. The pressure is mounting at Real Madrid, and this feels like a must-win fixture if they are to have any realistic chance of catching Barcelona at the top of La Liga. suffered a damaging 1-0 defeat away at Mallorca last weekend – a result that has put serious dents in their title hopes – they now sit seven points behind Barcelona at the top of the table.
Then came the Champions League midweek, losing to Bayern Munich here leaves them with a mountain to climb in the second leg in Germany. The late goal to get it to 2-1 gives them a chance, but they were all over the place at the back at times. Obviously Real have been through a lot this season already – it seems player power won out with Xabi Alonso going but the mood around the club felt like it has turned sour, and the fans made their feelings known by booing Vinícius Jr – a remarkable turn of events for one of the world’s best players and a sign of just how fractured the atmosphere has become. Even the TNT commentators made a comment on the noise of the booing after Vini missed a good chance on Tuesday.
It’s not too dramatic to call this a must win game, and then obviously this fixture also falls between the Champions League Quarter-Final ties so Real could be forgiven for having one eye on the second leg against Bayern too. Real Madrid simply cannot afford to drop more points if they are to have any hope of overhauling Barcelona. Even with all the drama around Real at the moment, it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Real Madrid are trading 1.31 with Girona 11.0 and the draw is 6.8 at the time of writing.
Looking at the underlying numbers, Real Madrid remain a genuinely formidable side. Their average xG created of 2.08 is the second best attacking figure in La Liga this season – only Barcelona, with 2.20, are better. Their average xG conceded of 1.13 is also the second best defensive figure in La Liga. On paper, these are genuine title contender numbers, and it’s not like Real are playing badly – it’s just Barcelona are better. The concern right now is not the numbers – it’s the confidence, the atmosphere, the fatigue after the Champions League midweek and one eye on the second leg too. Real should get the job done though – Girona are bang average. Their average xG created of 1.27 isn’t going to scare Real, and their average xG conceded of 1.69 is the joint-third worst defensive figure in La Liga. I think we’ll see goals here, and Real covering the handicap on the way to winning. The one thing Real Madrid need right now is a performance and a result to lift the supporters – and this feels like the right occasion to get it. The 1.82 on Real to cover the 1.5 goal handicap looks nice value to start the weekend.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Girona at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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