SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews COMO v INTER MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
COMO V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We have another cracker from Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange this weekend as Como host Inter Milan on Sunday evening. Inter Milan come into the weekend sitting on top of the Serie A table with a seven point lead over second placed Napoli, with only seven games remaining. They are on the verge of lifting their 21st Scudetto, but they face a very difficult task away to Como who have been absolutely superb under Cesc Fabregas this season. It’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open betting heat here – Inter come into the game as the favourites at 2.38 with Como 3.3 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
What a story Como are – and what a story Cesc Fabregas is as a manager. This is a club that was playing in the fourth tier of Italian football as recently as 2019 and hadn’t been in Serie A since 2003 before their return. Under Fabregas they have been transformed into genuine top four contenders. He took the job permanently in the summer of 2024 after guiding them to promotion, and this season has been nothing short of remarkable. Fabregas was always thought of as one of the most intelligent footballers of his generation, now that’s translating into coaching. I suppose the big question during the summer will be what clubs around Europe will want his services. He will have to be careful too; we saw what happen Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid this season.
Como drew 0-0 with Inter in the Coppa Italia here back in March – a result that demonstrated they are more than capable of frustrating this Inter side at home. Indeed, the two sides meet again in the Coppa Italia Semi-Final second leg at the San Siro in a few weeks time. When they met earlier in the season in Serie A, Inter did win 4-0 with home advantage! Inter have been playing the best football in Italy this season – their average xG created of 2.01 is the best attacking figure in Serie A and their average xG conceded of 0.98 is the best defensive figure too. Given the size of Como and where they have come from, it might be easy to think that they have been over-performing. That hasn’t been the case.
Como’s average xG created of 1.59 is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A – genuinely excellent and a reflection of the positive, expressive football Fabregas has installed. Their average xG conceded of 1.05 is the second best defensive figure in Serie A. That is a remarkable set of numbers for a newly promoted club; obviously well behind Inter from an attacking point of view, but when you view them from their club size they are exceptionally good to be honest. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.38 on Inter here to be honest. We have the top two defensive sides in Italy, and Como will make this hard work. I would actually be tempted to lay Inter from a value point of view – I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest. Another option has to be Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 in what screams a very tight game – I actually feel that option offers the best value here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 0-0 here between the sides.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SACoIn
