CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v BARCELONA and LIVERPOOL v PSG both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V BARCELONA
8pm It’s crunch time on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week as we have the the second legs of the Champions League Quarter-Finals! We start with a cracking Tuesday night, and we kick it off with a massive all La Liga tie as Atletico Madrid host Barcelona at the Metropolitano. After what happened at Camp Nou last week, this is a night that Barcelona are going to need to produce one of the great European comebacks – and they are doing it in one of the most hostile environments in world football. Diego Simeone’s side head into the second leg with a commanding 2-0 advantage, and you can already picture what Tuesday night is going to look like at the Metropolitano. The bus is parked. The fans are in full voice. And Barcelona have to come and win in Madrid. You have to say, it’s a fascinating set up after the first leg! You can see the Atletico tactics coming a mile off here, and Diego Simeone had the luxury of resting his whole XI at the weekend given they are miles off the title race but basically assured of a top four spot. Barcelona couldn’t do that given the title race with Real Madrid, but they did extend their lead to nine points with Real dropping more points.
Barcelona have been exceptional this season, and they will say that they were very unlucky in the first leg. Atletico created an xG of just 0.45 in the first leg yet walked away with a 2-0 win. The red card for Barcelona changed the game irreversibly, and Atletico are absolute masters of managing those situations. Simeone has built his entire managerial career on moments exactly like these. Despite the two goal advantage, we should have a very interesting game here – Barcelona come in as the odds on favourites to win in 90 minutes at 1.87 with Atletico Madrid 3.9 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. If the betting is correct, Atletico should face some hairy moments. Barcelona’s average xG created of 2.20 is the best attacking figure in La Liga this season – genuinely brilliant, they are the most devastating attacking side in Spain. Their average xG conceded of 1.06 is also excellent – the best defensive figure. Atletico’s average xG created of 1.61 ranks third in La Liga, and crucially their average xG conceded of 1.25 is the four best defensive figure too. Impressive performance levels, but not Barcelona. I have to say, the 1.87 on Barcelona feels a little short here – we’ve seen Atletico beat them here in the Copa and while Barcelona won 2-1 in La Liga here recently, Atletico took the lead and I just feel the game will be closer than 1.87 reflects.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Barcelona to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLAtBa
LIVERPOOL V PSG
8pm We move over to Anfield to finish Tuesday night as Liverpool host PSG in what Liverpool fans will be hoping to be a historic European night! Liverpool need to overturn a 2-0 deficit against the reigning Champions League holders, and this comes on the back of a season that has seen the Premier League title holders from last year tumble into genuine crisis. We could see a historic European night at Anfield, or the final curtain on a season that has spectacularly unravelled for Arne Slot’s side. In fairness to Slot, he has had a lot to deal with – injuries and all the Mo Salah drama. Liverpool have been playing good football without getting results – theur average xG created of 1.76 is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League this season – and yet they find themselves fifth in the table. Their average xG conceded of 1.29 is third best too, so they should be sitting in the top four. Anfield history gives Liverpool some hope, but this feels like a massive task. We have an exceptionally open betting heat – both sides are currently the same price at 2.56 with the draw trading 4.4 at the time of writing. PSG will have fond memories of Anfield given they bounced back from 1-0 down last season on their way to winning the competition.
PSG were absolute world class in the first leg – their passing, movement, and quality in the final third was of a completely different level to what Liverpool offered. It will be interesting to see their approach here with a two goal lead; if they decide to sit back that could easily backfire. They need something early to quieten the crowd too. The tactical question for Slot is massive – his decision to deploy a back three in Paris was roundly criticised by Jamie Carragher and others. He will need to be far more attack minded at Anfield, but that will inevitably leave space for PSG to exploit on the counter. Even allowing for the counter from PSG, the 2.56 doesn’t jump off the page as massive value here. I actually don’t have a strong opinion on the match odds market here, and I’m happy to stay out of it. With Liverpool needing to win, I do feel we’ll see goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.5 and that looks the value call in what should be a very open and entertaining game. Liverpool will have to chase the game from the front, which should open it up, and PSG are more than capable of punishing on the break.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLLiPa
