EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews ASTON VILLA v BOLOGNA and NOTTINGHAM FOREST v PORTO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V BOLOGNA
8pm It’s crunch time in the Europa League Quarter-Finals on Thursday as we have the second legs on Betdaq Betting Exchange! The two Premier League sides are back in action, and we kick off the night at Villa Park as Aston Villa look to seal their place in the last four with a commanding 3-1 lead from the first leg in Bologna. You have to feel that was the tougher leg for Villa, and now with home advantage it’s hard to see Bologna turning things around. Villa have had a very difficult run in the Premier League recently – perhaps their results are falling more in line with their performance levels now – but a draw at the weekend leaves them level on points with Manchester United in third and fourth, and with Manchester United and Chelsea losing as well, they are still looking good for a Champions League spot. Emery’s side have now gone on a winning run of eight consecutive Europa League games, but the under-lining numbers say they were lucky in Bologna. They actually finished the game with only half of the xG figure that Bologna created. That would make you think twice about backing Villa at odds on here. Aston Villa are trading 1.69 with Bologna 5.4 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing.
Obviously much of the commentary around Villa this season has centred on those underlying numbers; their average xG created of 1.48 is only the ninth best figure in the Premier League and their average xG conceded of 1.44 is equally mid-table. The “xG killer” tag Emery has earned is very much deserved, and the argument still stands that they are punching above their weight level domestically. They aren’t playing like your typical top four side – but you can’t really argue when you’ve seen how many points the others have dropped. Bologna have everything to play for here, and this Europa League is genuinely their last remaining route back into European football next season, sitting nine points off the Serie A European spots. Bologna have generally focused on being solid at the back in recent years, and that has brought them success – they have to approach this game differently now and attack. The task is steep, especially at Villa Park. Those more open tactics should make this a very open game though, and while nothing jumps off the page as value in the match odds market, I do expect goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 and that looks cracking value.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELAvBo
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V PORTO
8pm We finish Thursday night with what promises to be the most interesting second leg as Nottingham Forest host Porto at the City Ground – and this one is very much alive at 1-1 after a fascinating first leg in Portugal. Forest are under immense pressure in the Premier League relegation battle – wins for West Ham and Leeds at the weekend were a blow, but they managed a draw with Aston Villa to keep them ahead of Spurs and West Ham. Obviously Forest have also had a lot of off field drama with multiple managers this season! Their European journey has been a beacon of positivity amid the Premier League gloom, and they have had some very impressive performances. Despite all the change in managers, their under-lining numbers actually haven’t been that bad this season. Their average xG created of 1.46 is a perfectly respectable mid-table figure, and their average xG conceded is exactly the same figure. Generally, when you create what you concede you land in mid-table in most of Europe’s top leagues. Porto arrive in Nottingham as the Primeira Liga leaders and in formidable domestic form. Francesco Farioli was frustrated after the first leg, feeling his side deserved a better result, and he is right – on the xG figures they were clearly the better team in Portugal.
Porto actually created over double what Forest did, and deserved to win the game. Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.36 with Porto 3.5 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Porto will arrive at the City Ground with something to prove and will push forward with intent. However, Forest are a different beast at home in Europe – the City Ground is an intimidating atmosphere, and they have already beaten Porto here this season 2-0 in the league phase. However, to counter that – Porto did finish that game with the marginally higher xG figure. I have to say when you look at everything here, it looks like a very cagey and tight game – the 1-1 score line means no one has to push forward. It really wouldn’t be a surprise to see a 0-0 score line until late. Under 2.5 goals obviously comes straight into your mind, and that’s trading 1.66. Another option has to be the Forest lay, the 2.36 looks a little short based on what we’ve seen this season, but home advantage is big for them. On balance, I feel the best value play here is Unders in what should be a very close game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELNoPo
