COPA DEL REY FINAL SATURDAY: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v REAL SOCIEDAD with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm It’s one the biggest nights in Spanish domestic football on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week as we have the Copa del Rey Final! La Liga stops for the whole weekend as Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad take centre stage at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Sevilla. This is the most dramatic week in Atletico’s season, possibly in years. On Tuesday night at the Metropolitano, Diego Simeone’s side sent Barcelona crashing out of the Champions League in an absolutely gripping Quarter-Final second leg, winning 3-2 on aggregate in a match that had everyone on the edge of their seats. Now, just four days later, they get the chance to lift silverware. The momentum could not be higher after the scenes on Tuesday night!
This game will have a very different feel for Atletico. Barcelona were heavy favourites to progress from their Champions League tie; all the talk going in was Atletico parking the bus to survive after winning the first leg. This time around, Atletico come into this game as the odds on favourites – that’s going to be a different type of pressure. Atletico are trading 1.84 with Real Sociedad 4.9 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. There was a huge amount of passion this week – surely Diego Simeone will be tapping into that here. He has instilled a mentality and an identity into this football club that goes far beyond tactics. No manager in world football manages a big-game atmosphere better than Simeone – and you feel his influence in every single big match Atletico play.
For Real Sociedad, they might come into this tie feeling like the forgotten side. Let’s not forget that they won the Copa in 2020, when Mikel Oyarzabal scored the winner from the spot against Athletic Bilbao in a Basque Derby final played behind closed doors due to COVID-19. Atletico’s own Copa del Rey history is extensive. This is their 20th final – they have won the competition ten times, but it’s actually been a long time now – they last lifted the trophy back in 2013. Both sides got here in dramatic fashion; Atletico in an extremely entertaining tie against Barcelona over the two legs and Real Sociedad edging past Athletic Bilbao in an intense Basque Derby Semi-Final, winning both legs 1-0.
Atletico have been playing the better football this season. They have an average xG created of 1.61 this season – the joint-third best attacking figure in La Liga – quite a distance off Barcelona and Real Madrid but still. Their average xG conceded of 1.25 is the fourth best defensive figure in La Liga too. They are not as explosively talented as Barcelona or Real Madrid in attack, but few sides in Europe are more organised, more resilient, and more dangerous from set pieces. Real Sociedad’s La Liga numbers are that of a classic mid-table side. Their average xG created of 1.49 is the seventh best attacking figure in La Liga which is where they currently sit in the table. Their average xG conceded of 1.48 is mid-table standard though, and that could be a vulnerability against this Atletico side.
The question is how much the Champions League second leg takes out of Atletico physically and mentally. They played on Tuesday and now face a final on Saturday – a very short turnaround for a squad that has been through an enormous emotional wringer. Simeone will manage it; he always does. But you have to at least acknowledge that Real Sociedad will arrive fresher. There is also the interesting psychological angle – Atletico have already peaked emotionally this week with the Barcelona result. Keeping that edge sharp for a cup final 96 hours later is a real challenge, even for this group. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Atletico at odds on here with that in mind.
Given the defensive quality on display from both sides, it’s hard not to see a reasonably cagey game here. We know how Diego Simeone sets his side up in big games, and I can’t see Real Sociedad being too open either. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.0 and I have to say, I was surprise that isn’t trading odds on when I clicked into the market. I feel the 2.0 is cracking value, and I’m happy with a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CDAtSo
