PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER CITY v ARSENAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL
4.30pm We have the biggest Premier League game of the season this Sunday at the Etihad on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Manchester City host Arsenal in what could genuinely decide the Premier League title – the perfect prime time TV Super Sunday slot! Arsenal currently have a six point lead, but you can clearly see the cracks are beginning to show – they had the chance to go twelve points clear last weekend before Manchester City played, but a loss to Bournemouth followed by a City win away to Chelsea has kicked the door open in the title race when it looked like Arsenal had two hands on the trophy. Crucially, Pep Guardiola’s side still have a game in hand, a win here could see them go top if they beat Burnley on Wednesday too.
The pressure on Mikel Arteta’s side has been there for all to see in recent weeks. They reached the Champions League Semi-Final midweek but to be honest the tie against Sporting Lisbon told its own story about Arsenal’s current mindset. They had a 1-0 lead going into the second leg at home and they chose to defend it. They had just one shot on target. There was no creativity, no urgency, and the performance did little absolutely nothing to inspire confidence ahead of this Sunday. Add that to the Carabao Cup Final loss against City, the FA Cup exit to Southampton and the alarm bells are certainly ringing. It feels like Arsenal absolutely need a result here in the title race – I mean that’s obvious with the numbers, but mentally it feels so important.
Manchester City, by contrast, have had a full week to prepare for this game. Guardiola will have all the time he needs on the training ground, and home advantage – there’s a huge amount in City’s favour here. The task for Arsenal feels massive! It’s no surprise that City come into the game as the favourites at 1.89 with Arsenal 4.4 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. We have two top class sides here – Manchester City’s average xG created of 1.75 is the third best attacking figure in the Premier League this season, and their average xG conceded of 1.13 is the second best defensive figure too. Arsenal’s average xG created of 1.72 makes them the fourth best attacking side, but they have been better at the back with an average xG conceded of only 0.92. Put everything together and you have clearly the top two sides here.
What the xG data cannot capture, of course, is short-term form, momentum and the psychological weight of a title run-in – and right now, all three of those factors point in City’s favour. We’ve seen this story before; City chasing down Arsenal on the run-in. I feel the City price is a shade of value – they have home advantage, the better recent form, the superior rest time this week, and an Arsenal side that looks genuinely rattled. You could make a case for the draw given how cautious Arsenal might be in the circumstances, I feel it hard to believe that Arteta won’t try and park the bus here. He parked it at home against Sporting midweek! Another option has to be Under 2.5 goals given we’re likely to have a tense and cagey affair, that’s trading 1.94 but I do feel at five ticks shorter, City offer slightly more value. No doubt that this is the most fascinating fixture of the season!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMcAr
