SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews LECCE v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LECCE V FIORENTINA
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe comes from Serie A on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week as Lecce host Fiorentina. This is a massive game at the wrong end of the Serie A table and it will have a big impact on the relegation battle given Lecce come into the matchday sitting in the bottom three. It’s desperately tight though – Fiorentina have moved away from danger in recent weeks with a superb run just when they needed it. They looked to be in massive trouble, but they’ve only lost once in their last nine Serie A games. They’ve managed five wins from those games too, and now they have a nice eight point cushion on the bottom three.
It’s not a surprise given their current run that Fiorentina come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Lecce 3.7 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Fiorentina’s season has been a real tale of two halves – they went the first fifteen league matches without a single win, a horrendous start that cost Stefano Pioli his job. Under new management, results have gradually improved, but in fairness they should have never been in a relegation battle. Their average xG created of 1.37 is a respectable mid-table figure, and their average xG conceded of 1.45 is again a mid-table standard. Obviously it’s a big drop off from battling for the European spots, but it’s miles off relegation standard.
Lecce is a different story. Their average xG created of 1.06 is the second worst attacking figure in Serie A – they are creating so little going forward, and that is reflected in their pitiful goals tally. They’ve scored the fewest goals in Serie A this season with only 21 from 32 games – they aren’t even converting an xG of close to 1.0! Their average xG conceded of 1.48 is bang average too, but not that bad – the problem for Lecce this season has definitely been in attack. They are Serie A’s most toothless attack, and that makes it extremely difficult to see how they turn this season around. Could we say that the main positive for Lecce is that the side above them in the table, Cremonese, create even less and concede the most chances in Serie A.
It’s hard to see the positives with Lecce here, and I feel the 2.26 offers a shade of value on Fiorentina. They are playing good football, and they are finally getting results. They look full of confidence at the moment while Lecce come into the game off the back of four straight losses. Lecce have scored in only 47% of their home matches this season, which tells you exactly how toothless they are even with home advantage. I am happy to back the Fiorentina win here at 2.26.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Fiorentina to beat Lecce at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SALeFi
