EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews CRYSTAL PALACE v RAYO VALLECANO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CRYSTAL PALACE V RAYO VALLECANO
8pm It’s UEFA Europa Conference League Final time Wednesday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Crystal Palace take on Rayo Vallecano at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig! Two clubs who have never won a major European trophy in their entire histories, it’s going to be an immense experience for both sets of fans – and for one set of fans, a night they will never forget. Crystal Palace have already tasted recent success, landing the FA Cup last season. A European trophy would be something special. I know sometimes this tournament is looked down upon by the bigger clubs but this is a final between two sets of fans who have waited their entire lives for a night like this. The atmosphere will be fantastic.
Crystal Palace come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.98 with Rayo Vallecano 4.5 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. It took the club a staggering 119 years to lift their first major trophy – the FA Cup last season, beating Manchester City 1-0 at Wembley thanks to an Eberechi Eze goal. Their fans are living in a dream era with Oliver Glasner in charge. He hasn’t got along with their board this season, and he is set to leave the club in the summer, and what a send-off he could get here. The man who delivered Europa League glory with Eintracht Frankfurt in 2022 knows exactly what these nights demand in fairness.
On the other side of this final sits one of European football’s truly unique clubs. Rayo Vallecano have never won La Liga, never won the Copa del Rey, and their highest competitive achievement before this season was reaching the quarter-finals of the UEFA Cup all the way back in 2000/01. They play in a stadium that holds just 14,708 fans, and have somehow found themselves 90 minutes from European glory. And if their season on the pitch has been extraordinary, the off field story is has got most of the headlines. Rayo are famously one of the very few clubs across Europe’s top leagues that still do not sell tickets online. Fans physically queue at the taquilla central outside the ground – sometimes for hours in scorching heat, with reports of fans queuing for up to twelve hours and even ambulances being called when supporters collapsed from heat exhaustion waiting for season tickets. The club’s remarkable justification? Some of their older fans don’t have the internet. You simply cannot manufacture that kind of character!
Obviously it’s hard to read too much into under-lining numbers when these two clubs have been focusing on their European journey for the latter half of the season – mainly because they’ve both sat in mid-table in the Premier League and La Liga without being able to achieve anything. It makes sense to put all your eggs in the European basket. Crystal Palace have had a tough Premier League campaign, finishing 15th. Their average xG created of 1.31 ranks them as mid-table in the Premier League and their average xG conceded of 1.39 is alos mid-table level. Rayo Vallecano have actually played better football; their average xG created of 1.55 is the joint-fifth best attacking figure in La Liga, and their average xG conceded of 1.40 is a respectable mid-table defensive figure.
The key question is whether Premier League pedigree and Glasner’s experience of major European finals tips the balance. Crystal Palace have proven they can handle the big occasion after last season’s FA Cup triumph, and Glasner has been here before. That experience edge does help, but I can’t help but feel that the 1.98 on Palace is a little short. There was an obvious gulf in class between the Premier League club and the Bundesliga club in the Europa League Final last week which Aston Villa won. I don’t think there’s a massive gulf in class here, and from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Palace at the odds. I just expect a closer game than 1.98 suggests.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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