11.0 AND 10.0 BETDAQ VALUE ACROSS FOUR CARDS TODAY: Daqman tracks down the top value on BETDAQ, with four meetings today, and finds 11.0 and 10.0 trades to his liking at morning offers.
CESAREWITCH: FOR 14-1 READ 41.0: He rates some bookmaker prices on the weekend Cesarewitch as ‘crazy,’ notably one of the market leaders at 14-1. Look out for his big-race ABC guide later in the week.
Call it crazy; call it what you like. But the 14 Courtesy Call with Ladbrokes for the Cesarewitch on Saturday looked like a misprint for 41 when I checked through the odds and offers last night.
In fact, the 41.0 available on BETDAQ had been extended to offers of 45.0 this morning, the point being that the Mark Johnston gelding is number 54 on the big-race card, with only 34 allowed to run. Just one horse, Hidden Universe, was withdrawn at yesterday’s acceptance stage.
The third and fourth, when Courtesy Call was runner-up in the Cesarewitch Trial, are much more likely to get in: Dark Ranger number 33 and Eagle Rock 36. At 33-1 with some bookies, both can be had at more than double those Courtesy Call odds!
After 13 consecutive races in the frame, Countrywide Flame is favourite, or nearly so, with most bookies and on the exchanges, challenged by Hurricane Higgins.
Other anomalies at the time of writing included: Motivado, 10-1 and 12-1 with bookmakers but 17.5 on BETDAQ; I Have A Dream 10-1 and 12-1 alongside the Daq’s 15.5; Lordofthehouse 12-1 and 14-1 in places but with 24.0 available to exchange.
Two of the main protagonists, Dermot Weld’s Olympian and Alhellal, would both prefer good ground. Olympian won’t come over if it’s soft at Newmarket, but Alhellal will be there, come what may.
My horses to follow are going for the big two-year-old double through Ashdan in the Dewhurst and Blaine in the Middle Park. Both are unbeaten though both have to take on hot favourites in Dawn Approach and Reckless Abandon, respectively.
But, significantly, favourites have won only three out of 10 in each race in the last decade. The Dewhurst has gone to winners at 33-1 and 20-1 (twice) in the last four years, and the 2011 Middle Park winner was 25-1. Soft ground would make similar turn-ups no surprise at all on Saturday.
Brighton will be a bit of a bog today, with rain forecast on soft ground, and Here Comes Jeanie (3.50), with an essential low draw, could get off the mark with bottomweight: 11.0 on BETDAQ.
Champion trainer elect, John Gosden, has a massive 80% record with juveniles at Brighton, so I am not giving up on Mowhoob (2.50).
Catterick could have drying ground but I still fancy Jubilee Games (3.30). Richard Fahey is two out of two in this class-3 nursery since 2008.
Serena Brotherton is 3-4 from her rides on this course, and her mount, Hab Reeh (5.00) – they won together in June – has the tongue-tie reapplied today: 6.6 is plenty short enough, but suggests that the Ruth Carr grey is fancied.
Marco Botti has a 50% strike rate with horses first time in a tongue-tie, and Glory City (7.30 Wolverhampton) was a huge 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I’m two out of three with recent place naps, so I’ll try another one here.
Capacious (8.00 Wolverhampton) was at fair offers – 8.2 – for a solo James Fanshawe raider and single mount of the evening meeting for Eddie Ahern. Capacious is first time in a handicap.
There’s a decent handicap at Leicester bearing the local Quorn name (4.10), the forecast favourite, firm-ground winner Estemaala, having ducked the soft surface.
That left Burnham at the helm in an open market when I checked the prices, with six runners within 4.6 points of each other, though the probability total was still high (around a normal bookies percentage steal) when I cursored the orange too soon after the withdrawal.
But the 6.4 Require looked ok. The yard won this race last year off a similar weight mark, and in fact the top half of the handicap has provided the winner seven times in the decade.
I also liked the 9.6 Cockney Sparrow, a ‘live’ filly in the Spring before aiming too high in the Cheshire Oaks. Might still show a touch of class.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.6pts win MOWHOOB (2.50 Brighton)
BET 4pts win JUBILEE GAMES (3.30 Catterick)
BET 2pts win and place HERE COMES JEANIE (3.50 Brighton)
BET 3.7pts win REQUIRE and 2.3pts win COCKNEY SPARROW (4.10 Leicester)
BET 3.5pts win HAB REEH (5.00 Catterick)
BET 2.2pts win and 3.8pts place GLORY CITY (place nap, 7.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 2.7pts win CAPACIOUS (8.00 Wolverhampton)
* Daqman’s win bets are staked to win 20 points, so you can work out the offers taken (20 divided by stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
