7-2 AND 3-1 BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman, who went nap on Handazan (WON 3-1) on Sunday, topped that yesterday with Hollow Penny (WON 7-2). He completed a double with Hollow Penny and Tominator (WON 1-2).
34.0 ABOUT 10-1 CUP RAIDER: He took 34.0 offers about John Gosden’s Melbourne Cup raider Gatewood when he helped break the news that the colt will run at Flemington on Saturday to qualify. Hills and Paddy Power went 10-1 this morning.
It’s the strange case of the Yarmouth maiden. But for the heavy ground, I’d be marking down the winner of the 2.10 in my horses-to-follow list for Flat 2013.
This race invariably produces a top performer, or potentially so: Bullet Train (2009) subsequently won the Lingfield Derby Trial; Sea Moon (2010) the Great Voltigeur and Hardwicke; Handsome Man (2011) landed a handicap coup for me.
Today it should be a formality for High Troja. Ed Dunlop’s juveniles leap forward after one or two runs and he’s looked the part, staying on steadily over 7f. Dunlop currently has a better than 50% win-and-place strike-rate and High Troja has shown that he acts on heavy.
Following trainers in form is a good edge at this time of year: those who are finishing the Flat season well in the final fortnight, and those already striking it rich over jumps.
Dunlop has an odds-on shot at Catterick (3.20) in The Tiger, another heavy-ground sort, but his pencil-thin profile worries me, even though offers are 10.0 bar one on BETDAQ this morning: he has had only five races in his life.
At his age, horses with such profiles, particularly if the races are usually spaced out, can rarely capitalize on recent form, and The Tiger is back today eight days after a win, trying to beat the handicapper.
I won’t be taking 1.71 on today’s surface, even though Dunlop has a 60% record on the course. I’ll try a couple made big prices because of the overbetting on The Tiger.
Lexington Bay (10.0) and Lifetime (16.5) look big threats as soft-heavy ground winners who stay further for sure. Lifetime has won two grades higher and his yard is in great heart.
The Catterick form of Conry (1.50) is 112421, always with ‘soft’ in the going return: at 4.6 on BETDAQ this morning, he had ousted Piceno from the front of the market. Conry is unbeaten on the course at this trip.
Taunton has the quality card of the day, with Turn Over Sivola (1.30) likely to continue Alan King’s excellent run, though Workbench is a worry, in receipt of 7lb. and first runner for a new owner with Paul Nicholls.
Likewise, the Nicky Henderson grey Molotof (2.30) looks hot – and has won after an absence – but Changing Times for Nigel Twiston-Davies is the one with fencing experience.
The hurdles handicaps are always a terrific tease: I can’t resist them, and there’s a massive price in the 3 o’clock: the grey Arctic Watch, who must have the going on top, and does well fresh, has his conditions for his West Country yard, with Paddy Brennan up, but is 21.0 as I write.
The intriguing angle on the chase is that Shooters Wood (4.00) – first time under Ruby Walsh – is the medium of a gamble into favouritism to turn over Royale’s Charter, with everything else on the drift. I was wondering what Ruby was over for.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win CONRY (1.50 Catterick)
BET 1pt win and place ARCTIC WATCH (3.00 Taunton)
BET 2.2pts win LEXINGTON BAY and 1.2pts win LIFETIME (3.20 Catterick)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) SHOOTER’S WOOD (4.00 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles TURN OVER SIVOLA (1.30 Taunton), CONRY (1.50 Catterick), HIGH TROJA (2.10 Yarmouth), SHOOTERS WOOD (4.00 Taunton)
Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points at the offer he spotted at the time of writing. So, if you divide 20 by his stake, you will always know what that offer was. Daq Multiples have specified stakes.
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