FIVE NAPS UP OUT OF EIGHT: Daqman took his current naps form to 11210131 with McVicar (WON 3-10) yesterday, following 7-2, 3-1, 7-4 and 10-11 winners. He continued to bag big-race success but his Cork National winner, Raz De Maree (WON 11-2), was only a saver because of the price.
HE’S NOT ‘DUN’ WITH YET: Daqman rates Mount Athos the danger to a Dunaden double in tomorrow morning’s Melbourne Cup. Despite rising in the weights, Dunaden can show his devastating turn of foot on the firm ground. Another previous winner, Americain, is his third choice.
MELBOURNE CUP ABC: Here’s how the stats pan out for the Cup (4 a.m. our time), with Daqman’s jackpot selections below the card, along with his English bets for today:
A : 17 out of 20 winners were below the age of seven
B: 17 out of 20 came from stalls 7 to 15
C: 14 out of 20 carried between 8st 3lb and 8st 8lb.
D: 10 of the last 10 ran in the last 17 days
E: Won the Geelong Cup or ran in the Caulfield Cup
ABCDE Glencadam Gold Ninth for Sir Henry Cecil behind Nathaniel in the King Edward V11 (Royal Ascot Derby) last year, he came good Down Under with four in a row for trainer Gai Waterhouse, the former English actress, including the Newcastle Gold Cup in September before easily taking the Group-1 Randwick Metropolitan a month ago.
Favourite for the ‘big tell’ for this race, the Caulfield Cup, but drawn way out wide and ‘used up’ trying to get a position. Massive price but you have to ignore that result and a knocked hoof last weekend.
ABCDE Lights Of Heaven Australasian Oaks winner last year, and back-to-back winner of Group-2s, Eagle Farm Cup and Brisbane Cup (1m 4f), within eight days in June. Unsuccessfully dropped back in trip but a late-finishing third, threading herself through the field, in the Caulfield Cup.
Now weighted alongside the winner, Dunaden, and to again finish in front of the fourth horse, Americain, the 2010 Melbourne Cup winner.
ABCD Maluckyday Hasn’t had a lucky day for two years, since winning the Lexus at Flemington on the way to his second to Americain in the 2010 Cup. Not the same sparkle since, though never far off the winner, and eyecatching Geelong run suggests he has been ‘got up’ for this.
ABCD Ethiopia Australian Derby winner who has raced over shorter since. Closing finish in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley 10 days ago. Snag is that was his first run in blinkers: will they work again?
ABC Mount Athos Earmarked for this after stepping up in trip to be fourth in the 2011 Newmarket Cesarewitch. Unbeaten this year in three races: handicaps at Newmarket (Rowley) and York, and beat Brown Panther for the Group-3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. But not raced for 80 days.
ABC Galileo’s Choice Another raider without a recent race, 89 days absence since completing a four-timer on the Flat, his sixth win from eight starts, including hurdles. Dermot Weld’s dual Group-3 scorer has won over 2m on Flat and over hurdles.
ABD Kelinni Formerly with Amanda Perrett, crept in at the foot of the handicap after winning the Lexus, with Glen Boss taking the mount instead of the John Gosden intended, Gatewood, and instead of Glen’s Cox Plate winner, Ocean Park. Is it third ride lucky?
Well beaten by Glencadam Gold in the Randwick Metropolitan but better off at the weights here, and the Lexus was a Group-3 on the Flemington course.
ACD Green Moon Runner-up in the Caulfield Cup last year and a Group-1 Flemington winner a month ago but that was over 1m 2f, and has been beaten favourite in the Cox Plate since. But two wins and a place at Flemington from five starts.
ACDE My Quest For Peace Luca Cumani again. Globetrotting for the second year, having been fifth in the Woodbine International last autumn. Aimed high after, until back-to-back wins at Goodwood in August and close fifth to Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup 17 days ago. Stall 1 is a difficult draw.
ACDE Zabeelionaire South Australian Derby w nner in May. Has struggled since until twice beaten less than three lengths in Group 1s, Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes, but throughout the autumn has started between 25-1 and 60-1. Worst of the draw in 24.
ADE Dunaden Last year’s winner followed up in the Hong Kong vase and was runner-up to Sea Moon in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot this year (not clear run), with the 2011 Melbourne Cup runner-up, Red Cadeaux, third.
Despite the widest stall of all, Dunaden bounced back with a vengeance when he burst through with an electric turn of foot to win the Caulfield Cup, with several of these in arrears. He’s 3-3 Down Under.
ADE Jakkalberry Needed the run when fifth behind Dundaden and Red Cadeaux in Sea Moon’s Hardwicke, and followed up with success in the American St Leger at Arlington. But well outpaced behind Dunaden and several of these in the Caulfield Cup.
ACDE Sanagas Group-1 winner of the Holywood Turf Cup a year ago but has not lived up to that billing since. Started 60-1 and no show in Dunaden’s Caulfield Cup recently, but will love the firm ground.
ACD Tac De Boistron Group-2 winner at Longchamp on the soft in July but only sixth of seven to Gatewood in the Geelong Cup, a top trial for this race but with the winner missing the cut at Flemington. Firm ground a big concern.
AC Cavalryman The Godolphin hope has been a nearly horse in Group-1s, his winning form being back-to-back Listed success earlier in the year at York and Sandown. One-time hat-trick scorer, in which the big pot was the Grand Prix de Paris, but that was back in 2009.
AC Fiorente Gai Waterhouse (see Glencadam Gold) takes over this Sir Michael Stoute Group-2 Princess of Wales’s Stakes winner. Has looked a bridle horse, particularly when cruising to the leaders in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot in June, only to finish sixth to Sea Moon, behind Dunaden, Red Cadeaux and Jakkalberry.
AC Mourayan One-time John Oxx Irish Derby third. Got within a length last November of 2011 Mebourne Cup winner, Americain, but no win for four years until a Group 3 at Randwick a month ago. Group-1 horse on his day and jockey Hugh Bowman’s in the sauna to do this weight.
A Red Cadeaux Beaten last year by the narrowest margin in the 151-year history of the Melbourne Cup. They had to blow up the photograph to a pixel count.
But Dunaden beat him again in the Kong Kong Vase and yet again when they were second and third in the Hardwicke Stakes in front of Fiorente., who gained his revenge on soft ground in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Firm ground is against ‘Red.’
BCDE Niwot Won the Lexus at Flemington last year, three days before the Melbourne Cup, in which he was outpaced. Down the field in the Caulfield recently behind plenty of these.
BDE Americain The 2010 winner has scored twice at Group-2 level since and gave notice when fourth in the Caulfield Cup 17 days ago that he is back in business to retrieve the prize after another good run, also fourth, in last year’s renewal. Seven years old now but has a big pull in the weights on Dunaden and top Aussie jock Damien Oliver booked.
BDE Voila Ici Another seven-year-old, whose last win was the Gran Premio in San Siro in June2011 on heavy ground. Stone last in the Caulfield recently. Front-runner.
CD Precedence Another aged seven, has won nothing for two years and 11th in the Cup last season. Has had 13 Group-1 defeats.
CD Unusual Suspect Without a win for two years, 9th visored in the race last term. Now aged eight. Blinkers back on.
DE Winchester Rifle through his form and you find this seven-year-old , a former inmate of Dermot Weld, had his heyday in the summer of 2010. Ninth in the Caulfield within four or five lengths of Dunaden. In his sights but out of range.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) BLACK THUNDER (2.40 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee Pendra (12.50 Plumpton), Awesome Bella (1.20 Plumpton), Black Thunder (2.40 Kempton), Ghizao (3.10 Kempton)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.8pts win AMERICAIN, 4.6pts win DUNADEN and 4.1pts win MOUNT ATHOS (Melbourne Cup, 4 a.m. Tuesday)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
