FOUR WINNING NAPS IN A ROW: Yes, Daqman yesterday made it four successive best bets through Broadbackbob (WON 3-10), following on Dynaste (WON 7-4), Far West (WON 15-8) and Captain Conan (WON 11-10).
CURRENT SEQUENCE OF FIVE OUT OF SEVEN: That brings his sequence to 13 from 23 for a 56% strike rate, which has improved to 71% with five winners from his last seven selections: 1021111.
BETDAQ OFFERS BEAT SP 80% OF THE TIME: In races tested by Daqman, the overall BETDAQ morning offers in 22 races – checked at around 9.30 – beat SP some 80% of the time.
Why nap a long-odds-on winner? Answer: I didn’t. There were shades of odds against Broadbackbob on BETDAQ at one stage and I took 1.97, which gave me 97-100 compared with the SP return of 30-100.
I thought 1.97 was fantastic value for a horse which seemingly had only to hack round against modest opposition at Plumpton. He did.
You knew the race was a value zone when I marked the selection as a Daq Value Bet, because the total probability of BETDAQ offers added up to less than 110%. In fact, the bookies’ SP totted up to a colossal 129%.
There have been many races in the last eight days where BETDAQ offers were overround by only 110% or less. I have selected 22 of them, and named them in my column, comparing the offers probability total with SP.
The result of my survey shows 18 were better on BETDAQ at the time I logged their offers, two to the bookies and two around even (18-2-2). So we’re talking a better deal on BETDAQ more than 80% of the time.
There were a lot more races I could have chosen. Example: the offers on four horses in the 3.20 handicap chase at Plumpton yesterday added up to only 106%.
But three horses were within 0.57 of each other, two of them CD winners. If I could have separated them, I was in a value market. I couldn’t and, with three horses short like that, I didn’t fancy dutching or backing one to win and another as a stakes-saving danger
It was a similar situation in the juvenile hurdle that opened Leicester. Three horses within 0.55 of each other included one unraced but from a top yard, one already with form, and one a filly getting all the allowances, ridden by McCoy. Another pinsticker, according to the market.
In fact, ALL the races yesterday at Leicester were sub-110 when I checked them out around 9.30 a.m. but they included a seller, a tricky novices’ chase and a conditionals race.
I waited until 2.40 (a class-3 hurdle with the offers totting up to 108%) where I found a good price. It didn’t win but BETDAQ punters won. The SP overround was 115%.
The big guns – Nicholls, Henderson, Hobbs, Pipe – are quiet today but you have to include Don McCain and Peter Bowen in that terminology, as they are in the 40-winners-plus category near the top of the current trainers’ table. Each has one runner today, both second favourites.
I wouldn’t back second favourites blind, but I know a man who did. He would go to a race meeting with wads of cash and back the second in the market until one won. Then he went home.
As with all ‘systems’, he won and he lost. I’ve seen him go home in a Rolls. I’ve seen him unlocking his bicycle safety-chain and fastening clips round his trousers. I prefer my game: value.
If you can get the ‘wrong’ price about a horse – better than it should be – in a race which is punter friendly (i.e. with a low overround on BETDAQ), you must win in the long run. If only we could have Cheltenham every day..
You are certainly better off in the better-class races, in which the horses are more likely to run to form. That’s why the 2.40 Folkestone caught my eye. Though only Class 4, it’s as good as it gets today.
One thing we know without doubt: Sheena West will have ‘got up’ Just Josie for this. The mare is 2-2, a dual CD winner, for Marc Goldstein. Doesn’t stand much racing and has to be caught fresh.
Pete The Feat is up in the weights for two recent wins, and you wouldn’t expect him to have the scope at eight to improve like Just Josie and Mission Complete, both six year olds.
I could get 9.8 Just Josie. The BETDAQ market was still settling down but I was happy with that for a bit each way. Rain would compress her odds.
Another ‘wrong price’ was Mangonel (1.00), winner of the same race a year ago at Fakenham. She has the visors back on and Tom Scudamore booked for a repeat on his only ride of the day, yet 9.6 this morning in the orange on BETDAQ. Nice one.
Time to check BETDAQ for value races. Folkestone 12.40, 1.10, 1.40, 2.10 and 3.10 are all only 105-110 overround. Fakenham 1.30, 2.00, 3.00 and 3.30 are also punter friendly.
For the nap, I’ll go back to those second favourites and take Forever My Friend (3.10 Folkestone) to justify the long solo trip from Welsh Wales for Peter Bowen, who has a near-50% strike rate on the doomed track. Sulpius is up in trip and up 10lb, so 3.55 the selection is an excellent offer from a 109% ‘book’.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.3pts win and place MANGONEL (1.00 Fakenham)
BET 2.2pts win and place JUST JOSIE (2.40 Folkestone)
DAQ VALUE BET 7.8pts win (nap) FOREVER MY FRIEND (3.10 Folkestone)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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