SEVEN-IN-A-ROW LAST NAPS STANDING! If they complete the course, they win. The Saturday nap, Easter Day (WON 3-1), became Daqman’s seventh from the last nine, his sequence marred by two fallers – 1111F11F1 – one as it took over at the final obstacle and one, a gamble, that tipped up at the first.
23 OUT OF 26 IN THE FIRST THREE: 23 of his 26 naps to finish in the last month have been in the first three, a super 16 of them winners for more than 300 points profit at his usual target stake.
FOUR CONSECUTIVE LAYS UP: Yesterday he dared to oppose Long Run (2nd 11-8 fav) in the feature race, the BF Chase, for which he tipped winner and third. It was his fourth successful lay in a week, following three hot horses unplaced.
TWO ‘HORSES TO FOLLOW’ OUT OF THREE: Gevrey Chambertin (WON 3-1) and Silviniaco Conti (WON 7-4) made it two out of three for his horses to follow on Friday and Saturday. A third runner, Raya Star (2nd 4-1), performed well at Ascot.
12.25 Navan I did a double-take here! A maiden hurdle over 2m 7f? It must be intended to provide for 3m Points horses, the likes of Torn Asunder, Carry Each Other, Francis Street and Kashline.
The likely evens or so favourite, Torn Asunder, fluffed his lines at Downpatrick, but Kashline has drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, and they’re not barking Francis Street either. Instead, there are wise whispers for Jamie’s Benefit.
12.55 Navan The title name Monksfield – a mighty champion hurdler – hasn’t helped throw up any big prospects in this but the Irish Form Book is the place to be: eight of the last 10 winners have started 7-2 or much shorter.
Noel Meade does well in this (and in the 1.25 and 2.55, by the way) but makes it tricky by running two. So do Gigginstown House, with Davy Russell preferring Bonisland, which means that Rule The World, who is about ‘the same horse’ as Busty Brown, has eased in the market this morning.
Seefood is on the upgrade, but I shall go for Wingtips, overfaced in Triumph Hurdle and Punchestown 4-y-o championship and unlucky in a less-than-judicious ride last time. Ruby Walsh at 6.6: nice one.
1.25 Navan The Meade runner, Ally Cascade, was the only challenger to Don Cossack’s market supremacy on BETDAQ this morning, with Sizing Gold another for whom the dogs weren’t barking.
Sizing Gold, a stamina-packed Flemensfirth, might come back into it, if his Fairyhouse conqueror, Seefood, runs well in the previous race, and this morning’s 110% list in the orange was 43.0 bar three. So a bit each way Sizing Gold at 8.8 was interesting.
2.25 Navan (Troytown Chase) Ruby Walsh is an absolute gem of a jockey, witness his masterclass ride on Silviniano Conti at Haydock yesterday, albeit favoured, as I assessed, by Long Run’s not being a horse noted for first-time-back success. But the big Henderson beast ran a fine King George trial.
Today finds Ruby on another improver in another top trial, Romanesco, for Gordon Elliott in this (Graded) Troytown Chase, a horse of the right age with a perfect weight.
Youngsters have far and away the best record, among their success four wins for seven-year-olds in the last decade. There have been nine Troytown heroes set 10st 9lb or less.
Romanesco also fits the fitness bill – nine out of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days – but the black mark against him on the stats is that he is French-bred: The decade score (Irish-French-English) is: 9-1-0.
Gigginstown House are desperate to win this, with best of their quartet probably CD-winner Start Me Up, though Davy Russell’s pick is the Dessie Hughes hope, Tofino Bay, though he’s just started out over fences at the age of nine: both are high in the weights, according to the stats.
And down there, a stone and more lower in the ratings, is another CD winner, blinkered for the first time, in Glenquest, second in the race two years ago, plus Ballyburke, and Cork National fourth, Zardsky.
Ballyburke’s weight has been kept down for this contest, with primers over hurdles, and he looks thrown in for J P McManus, who is currently leading Gigginstown 42-38 for winners in the Irish owners’ championship.
Ballyburke’s last chase was a narrow defeat over CD in the Spring when given quite a bit to do from out the back. A tasty 11.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
The snag with Zardsky is there is little to choose between him, the mare Miss Pepperpot (reserve) and the one-paced The Hard Hat. I don’t like them all of a heap! But, still only six, Zardsky (big offers at 16.5) is the likely improver of that trio and, as a front-runner, could poach irretrievable ground in the boggy conditions.
2.55 Navan It could be McManus v Gigginstown again, with Sword Of Destiny and Alderwood vying for favouritism in this beginners’ chase.
Alderwood is a late developer who came good last season, winning the County Hurdle for McManus, and an exciting prospect over jumps.
It’s just a worry that he’s eight already, and trainer Thomas Mullins was so concerned about the ground this morning that he considered taking him out.
The grey Sword Of Destiny has two years on him, but has been a difficult horse to keep right. A risky favourite, 7lb behind Alderwood on hurdles ratings.
Willie Mullins also had a setback with Rupert Lamb last season, so I shall turn to one with a good chase run under his belt and who loves the mud. Name of Darwins Fox, a big offer at 6.6 this morning.
NAP VERDICT: The 1.55 and 3.25 are pinstickers’ races, while the Troytown is one to spread your stakes on the lightweights in today’s conditions.
The opener is anybody’s race and the 2m maiden hurdle a three-way contest. Wingtips (12.55) has a touch of class, which Ruby Walsh may now reveal. But really I’m forced to the beginners’ chase, never a safe place to be.
Alderwood goes well fresh, but the stable is worried about the ground, and he’s never won after August in any year. The favourite, Sword of Destiny, needs further and is a difficult horse to keep right. The Mullins-Walsh runner, Rupert Lamb, is a worry but was 30lb inferior over hurdles.
So it is that I’m hoping Darwin’s Fox, who loves the mud, can repeat his Punchestown second to the classy Oscar’s Well. He took his fences like an old hand that day, and ability to jump out of the mud will be the name of the game this afternoon.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.5pts win WINGTIPS (12.55 Navan)
BET 2.5pts win and place SIZING GOLD (1.25 Navan)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) DARWINS FOX (2.55 Navan)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.5pts win ROMANESCO, 2.8pts win BALLYBURKE and 2.1pts win ZARDSKY (2.25 Navan)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake), though jackpot bets are bigger stakes for a bigger return (as stated).
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