5-2 NAP AND EVERY ONE’S A WINNER! Saturday-king Daqman landed his nap at 5-2 and had the winner in all four races he bet in for a profit of 60 points on Hennessy Gold Cup day.
HUGE DAQ VALUE IN THE HENNESSY: Each race had a Daq Value morning market with a total percentage in single figures. Punters had a fabulous 103% list on BETDAQ for the Hennessy, but SP was a massive 129%.. that’s almost a third of your money taken out.
RED ROCCO (WON 5-2, nap) set the ball rolling for Daqman at Newcastle when he made all in the opening race of the day. Morning BETDAQ list: 107%. SP: 111%.
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (WON 11-4), his Fighting Fifth selection, romped away with the race. BETDAQ: 100.2%. SP: 108%.
AT FISHERS CROSS (WON 4-1), ‘a good bet’ at Newbury, was ‘far too good for his rivals’ (Raceform). BETDAQ: 106%. SP: 116%.
BOBS WORTH (WON 4-1). ‘If there’s anything of quality in this field, it’s likely to be Bob’s Worth.’ Daqman had his usual flutter but was careful to save on the favourite. BETDAQ: 103%. SP: 129%.
Is it another champagne day for Willie Mullins? The Irish maestro has had 28 in the frame from his last 30 finishers, including 16 winners. Champagne Fever is his only hot favourite over the sticks at Fairyhouse today but that means a man with better than 50% strike rate has five out of his six runners bigger than evens.
12.35 Fairyhouse: Favourites are going for a five-timer in this, the first of five Graded races, and Our Conor showed at Naas that he was able to quicken off heavy ground.
Brog Deas had a higher rating on the flat and had only to be pushed out at Cork a month back, but Dayrina had only the one pace at Punchestown, and success for South South West and Stocktons Wing came on a sound surface.
No doubt the reason Our Conor was odds on this morning lies with his stable companion, Everything Zain. He has already beaten Brog Deas and run second to Stocktons Wings and South South West so the theory is that Dessie Hughes knows the time of day.
However, I can get 4-1 Brog Deas, which are true odds in a five-horse race, even though he was only two lengths behind Our Conor on the Flat (heavy), giving him a stone. Worth a try at the price.
1.05 Fairyhouse (Royal Bond) The champagne has flowed three times in a row in this race for Willie Mullins since Hurricane Fly in 2008; he didn’t have a runner the following year but two more hot Mullins favourites have scored in the last two years.
The dual champion-bumper winner Champagne Fever won on his hurdles debut all right, but was novicey at his obstacles and I thought Mullins might have delayed his next move until Navan over 2m 4f in two weeks’ time, a slower-run race which might have helped the horse’s jumping.
Jexki has won twice over hurdles but was 12 lengths adrift of Champagne Fever in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, and Minsk is the bigger threat.
The Irish Cesarewitch winner was headed for the Triumph Hurdle last March but went down with a throat infection. He got within a neck of a Group horse in his last Flat run and then ran away with a heavy-ground Punchestown hurdle recently, beating a bumper-hattrick winner more than eight lengths.
Since BETDAQ has an oh-so-low 104% list of offers this morning, I will take Minsk’s 3.85 offer and save on Champagne Fever. Fascinating contest with the Neptune and Supreme Novices’ markets likely to be shaken up.
1.35 Fairyhouse (Drinmore) This race has a tall reputation but its stars have dimmed quickly, with just two of the last 10 reaching the frame at Cheltenham without winning, so I won’t be scanning the Festival markets, like some, at around 1.45.
As Willie Mullins says in the trade paper, this race will go a long way toward establishing a stable’s novice-chase pecking order. But just how good are they?
Though he’s won four in a row, Buckers Bridge is ‘pitched in at the deep end’, says Henry de Bromhead, and ‘this is quite a step up in class for Dedigout,’ worries Tony Martin.
Yet again, we’re in a punter-friendly race on BETDAQ (106% total probability in the offers) and, again too, I’m taking an offer better than you can get about the favourite, Dedigout.
He may win but you have to stick with what you know, and I was told that Darwins Fox was a good thing at Navan but Sword Of Destiny walked all over him. Buckers Bridge overcame a mistake (I like that) to beat Sword Of Destiny at Punchestown a month ago at 5-4, yet is 4.8 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
2.40 Fairyhouse (Hatton’s Grace) The offers on BETDAQ this morning add up to only 102% but Voler La Vedette’s result last year had 110% SP and Hurricane Fly’s (2010) was a huge 124% SP, a bookies’ steal of nearly a quarter of your money.
They’ve pushed my horse-to-follow Monksland off the diving board and right in deep here: the only previous five-year-old winner has been Istabraq, a champion of champions who won the Cheltenham title three times and the Irish equivalent four.
An 18-length Neptune third will need to have come on a proverbial mile to beat Voler La Vedette, who could be ranked third to Big Buck’s and Quevega in the hurdling hierarchy, yet has a 7lb mares allowance here!
So Young was also third in the Neptune (2011) and has yet to make any mark in Graded races, though stablemate Zaidpour warrants top-rating in this, as winner of three Grade 2s in a row from this time last year.
Top rating until that mares’ allowance, that is. I’ll have a 10-point nap on Voler La Vedette, the theory being that returns will pay for speculative trebles on the day at Fairyhouse.
ENGLAND: I’m shy of all those bumpers at Kempton. At Leicester, Amroth Bay, whose trainer has a 67% strike rate in chases on the course, and last year’s winner, Key Cutter, both looked big at 15.0 and 18.5 respectively on BETDAQ this morning. I’m hoping that one place bet can win the stakes back, giving us ‘free’ win bets.
I should be so lucky, and I might also get a thick ear after listening to gossip that Caulfields Venture (2.55) is better than the bare form suggests.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win BROG DEAS (12.35 Fairyhouse)
DAQ VALUE BET 7pts win MINSK and 5pts win (stakes saver) CHAMPAGNE FEVER (1.05 Fairyhouse)
DAQ VALUE BET 5.2pts win BUCKERS BRIDGE and 4pts win (stakes saver) DEDIGOUT (1.35 Fairyhouse)
BET 1.4pts win and place AMROTH BAY, and 1.2pts win and place KEY CUTTER (1.50 Leicester)
BET 3.4pts win CAULFIELDS VENTURE (2.55 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win VOLER LA VEDETTE (nap, 2.40 Fairyhouse) and 4 x 2pt win trebles the same one with Brog Deas (12.35 Fairyhouse), Minsk (1.05 Fairyhouse) and Buckers Bridge (1.35 Fairyhouse)
HORSES TO FOLLOW Monksland (2.40 Fairyhouse)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Value today indicates that the list of offers for the race added up to a total probability of 106% or less this morning.
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