BETDAQ CHRISTMAS BONUS AT KEMPTON: There were offers on BETDAQ totaling only 103% this morning on a Kempton card for which bookies claimed a 26% take-out (126% book) in one race at last year’s meeting.
LONG RUN NAPPED IN THE KING GEORGE: Daqman naps Long Run at jackpot stakes to win the King George but goes for a relative outsider at 9.2 this morning in the Christmas Hurdle.
4-1 WINNER WAS DAQMAN JACKPOT ‘BAK’ AT 8.6: Daqman already has one jackpot winner over the holiday period through Bakbenscher (WON 4-1) at Haydock. Again he took morning BETDAQ offers (8.6) and increased his stake to land 30 points.
TWO NAPS UP IN THREE DAYS: Daqman landed his Saturday nap with Cedre Bleu (WON 5-4), following on Guest Of Honour (WON 9-4) on Thursday.
There’s a Christmas box for BETDAQ punters today. When I made my selections at Kempton, I found three races out of four with a punter-friendly total probability in the orange of only 103%.
Compare that with last year’s bookmaker take-out in each race at the meeting of 110% minimum, and a gross ‘steal’ of 126% at SP on the novices’ handicap chase. From every £20 you bet, the bookies were grabbing more than a fiver for their own private Christmas fund.
1.25 Kempton Nicky Henderson’s training record in this race is P111P – they win when they get round – but ‘getting round’ is the problem with Rajdhani Express; his form figures in 2011 and 2012 beyond 17 furlongs are PPPF. Yet here he is among the favourites, despite steeplechase returns of P2F.
Henderson fans will say the ‘Express’ was going well at Taunton when he fell, and was the ‘moral’ over 2m and a bit when beaten only a length by Elenika, giving 3lb, at Huntingdon.
Though three years older, Coole River has run one race fewer than Rajdhani Express, and has to beat the bounce factor after a good run back over fences from 22 months off, after injury cut short a Graded-level hurdles career.
There isn’t much between Elenika and Milarrow on Newbury form but Milarrow is now back to his winning distance over hurdles of last Spring (only 3lb higher) and ran up against a horse of potential class in Easter Day in October before winning a chase at Exeter.
Colin Tizzard has been placed with five of his last eight runners, and Milarrow, clearly with the stamina for this and nicely down the handicap on this testing ground, was a decent offer at 6.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
1.45 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Chase) Merigo and Cape Tribulation are both Spring horses, while Junior has a massive weight, so I would bet that Ballyoliver’s 10st 7lb will count for a lot in these conditions: ultra consistent in lesser races with bigger burdens.
2.00 Kempton (Kauto Star Feltham Chase) A lot to live up to here, with Long Run and Grands Crus the last two winners, but Grands Crus’ stablemate, Dynaste has looked every bit a future champion.
He has seen off first Fingal Bay, then Court In Motion, in his two impressive runs over fences, at Cheltenham and Newbury. Super Duty has franked the form of Poungach, who may be the one to mount a challenge, though is said to prefer better ground.
2.10 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) Two trainers in great form this season, Kim Bailey and Steve ‘Local Hero’ Gollings, could fight out this stamina test with Bishophill Jack and Soudain respectively.
Overyou has bags of stamina but may not be nippy enough for this tight track. Bishophill Jack’s Towcester form was boosted when the second horse won recently.
2.35 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Not since the great days of Lanzarote and Dawn Run has this heralded the Champion Hurdle winner, though Binocular –successful in the last two years – had already taken the big ’un at Cheltenham.
The going today is a question-mark over the same stable’s Darlan and, on the bare form, his second to Cinders And Ashes in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last March, puts you firmly on Countrywide Flame, who shocked ‘Cinders’ in the Fighting Fifth. But was the McCain horse below par that day?
When you have to answer questions before the race with your own money, you need a price, and the good news is that the BETDAQ market is punter-friendly at 103% total probability at the time of writing.
But, when you are a tipster trying to answer the questions in advance of a race, you need evidence, and the strongest evidence on a day like today must be the way Countrywide Flame powered through the mud at Newcastle.
The evidence is not quite there for Dodging Bullets (9.2 on BETDAQ this morning) but trainer Paul Nicholls is very bullish. He has to make up four lengths on Countrywide Flame on Triumph Hurdle form but the ground is an equaliser and he should get through it after a summer breathing operation.
3.10 Kempton (King George) See my preview (Daqman Archive)
I stand by Long Run as the genuine stamina horse of the race, with the long-running form at this level. Other than Kauto Star, the only living horse to have finished in front of him in two years is The Giant Bolster.
But Long Run has beaten ‘Bolster’ either side of that, and Tony McCoy’s mount will find it difficult to race in the first two – as he has done in four of his last five races – and have any final flourish left to repel borders up the hill in cloying conditions.
Kauto Stone looked the real deal at Down Royal seven weeks ago on his first run after a breathing operation and his first at 3m but the form has been let down since by First Lieutenant and Quite De La Roque. He will need to have improved again but loves heavy ground.
The stamina of Captain Chris and Cue Card is suspect, particularly on today’s surface, while Riverside Theatre was beaten 12 lengths in this by Long Run two years ago, and Captain Chris was 17 lengths in arrears last time around. Has either one improved more than a stone? Not to my knowledge.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE: BET 3.8pts win MILARROW (1.25 Kempton)
BET 5.7pts win BALLYOLIVER (1.45 Wetherby)
BET 7pts win BISHOPHILL JACK (2.10 Market Rasen)
DAQ VALUE: BET 2.4pts win DODGING BULLETS and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (2.35 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 10pts win on each DYNASTE (2.00 Kempton) and HELLORBOSTON (3.35 Sedgefield) plus 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the same two with Long Run (nap, 3.10 Kempton)
ANTE-POST last Thursday: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 10.5pts win LONG RUN, and 3.3pts win KAUTO STONE, plus 3pts lost on a non-runner (3.10 Kempton)
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