BOTTOMS UP FOR THE HORSES TO FOLLOW! Glasses raised for Gevrey Chambertin, yet another winner for Daqman’s Horses To Follow. That was the breakthrough for 2013 after 14 Flat winners last season and 10 already for his 2012-13 jumps list. Gevrey saved a miserable day.
BIG-RACE DOUBLE TODAY: Daqman switches from the Welsh National (Teaforthree second) to the Sussex National today and tries a big-race double with the feature event at Naas.
1.35 Naas (Slaney Novices Hurdle) BETDAQ gets better every day. Joncol is out but there’s still a punter-friendly 105% list in the orange, as I write. The SP was a bookies’ steal at 117% when Monksland won it last year.
Mikael D’Haguenet was one of three winners in the decade for Willie Mullins, who should have the corks popping with Champagne Fever, unfortunately long odds-on.
But every other runner shows a better place return than Champagne Fever would give you for a win.
So I’ll go for a place nap, and double the favourite with my Sussex National fancy. With Mouse Morris out of form, I can’t really hope Rule The World will get close enough. Sizing Jo’burg and Captain Arcus would be asking too much.
Minsk (already within five lengths of the favourite) is the one. He’s 7-10 (I’m greedy and I hope I can grab evens sometime) and that will pay for my Plumpton bet and double.
2.55 Plumpton (Sussex National) It’s a favourites wasteland. No sign of a winner for them in the history of the Sussex National. But there is a mighty clue for punters: all had won over a distance of MORE than 3m.
Four horses here bite the dust straight away and, if you delete them from the BETDAQ orange – total probability percentage 108% as I write – you have an underround situation: 80%. In theory, you get 100 back for every 80 spent!
You see, one of those that hasn’t scored over the trip is the favourite, Well Refreshed, the very horse that’s suspect on the stats.
I imagine he’s fronting the market because he’s the local runner from Team Moore but it’s wide-open betting with the first four offers separated by just 1.8 points. The lay market is also value at 93% but 6.2 is a lot of lay Well Refreshed.
But there are some mighty big ‘ifs’. All voiced by Gary Moore himself in the trade paper. ‘If’ he gets round. ‘If’ he stays. Fingers crossed.
I’m not a man to back a favourite when it’s fingers crossed, thankyou very much. I’ll look elsewhere.. like the three other trainers (of Reblis, Present To You and Qualviro) who are all positive.
Miko De Beauchene and Petitfour have work to do at their age, though they’ve crashed in the ratings. Double Dizzy is also a big age and, though he won the race last year, is up 10lb.
What strikes me is that the older horses are all crowded at the top of the handicap, and I expect victory for a youngster down the list (highest weighted winner so far is 11st 4lb.)
I think Mission Complete would have beaten Reblis by more than he did the last day, had he not made fencing errors. Jonjo has been working on them and, with the maestro McCoy in the saddle, looks good value at 7.4.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
DAQ VALUE: BET 3pts win MISSION COMPLETE (2.55 Plumpton)
PLACE ONLY: 8pts MINSK (place nap, 1.35 Naas)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Mission Complete and Champagne Fever (1.35 Naas)
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