MAGIC DAQMAN MAKES IT A NAPS TREBLE: Yes, he’s done it again! Daqman landed his naps hat-trick, a ninth successful best bet in January, with Polar Venture (WON 2-1) yesterday, following Taxiformissbyron (WON 9-4) on Wednesday and Holy Warrior (WON 9-4) on Thursday.
HE’S GOT THAT MILLIONAIRE TOUCH: 86 POINTS UP: He was also in on the Terry Ramsden gamble on Secret Millionaire (WON 6-4) for his third successive days profit, totaling 86 points, with his naps now +46.70 from the January spree.
SPECIAL BETS ARE 92 POINTS IN PROFIT: His special bets of naps, jackpots, lays and horses to follow are now on 92 points for January. Spot them today as he tries to smash the 100-point barrier.
The show goes on. And on. And on. Cheltenham rescues jumps racing from the weather doldrums today with a never-ending, star-studded eight-race card, albeit in mudlike conditions.
And BETDAQ brings you a fantastic feast of value in the orange, with offers on all bar the last race adding up to 108% or less. In two cases, the total probability was only 103% this morning.
That’s virtually a level-playing field for races in which the bookies hiked the prices up to 120% total SP (in the novices’ handicap chase) last year at this time.
12.10 Cheltenham If I were strictly a time man, then the 2.39 Irish Saint I see on BETDAQ this morning in a 104% list in the orange would be extreme value. Should be odds on.
Irish Saint won over the same CD as Rolling Star a month apart at Auteuil but more than a furlong faster. Rolling Star was modest on the Flat and looks poor value at 2.83, as I write. Both will love the ground.
12.40 Cheltenham Johns Spirit returned to form at Sandown but then was asked to go a trip too far. The drop back in distance and the return of A P McCoy sets him up for battle with runaway Kempton winner Rajdhani Express.
But the ‘Express’ (13lb) and Ballygarvey (15lb) have been tonked by the handicapper, despite beating only very small fields in their respective last-day races.
McMurrough drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, well over the betting weir for me at 20.0, and there was no stable barking for Venetia Williams’ Bennys Mist, out to 13.5, and with that exposed look about him.
Renard d’Irlande seemed the better Venetia value at 11.5, stable selected by Aidan Coleman and with the yard having three winners in this contest in the last decade.
1.15 Cheltenham Bold Sir Brian and Pacha Du Polder were neither of them fluent at Sandown, and the Cheltenham gradients and stiff fences would worry me for a mortgage bet on either until they have proved themselves today.
Though ‘Pacha’ was trounced 15 lengths the last day, this is half a mile shorter and he has 12lb turnaround in the weights. But the trainer worries that he is an in-and-out horse or that he can’t find his trip.
There’s another big turnaround when Fruity O’Rooney gets a chance of revenge over Katenko over the very same CD at Sandown. ‘Fruity’ has been granted precisely the 19lb by which he was beaten.
If you go back to the big Festival last March, you will find that the Speciality won by Alfie Sherrin that day makes Our Mick the equal of Fruity O’Rooney.
Is this race wide open or what? It’s the first time I’ve looked at a 107% ‘book’ in the BETDAQ orange and not known my own mind. And we’ve yet to mention Nadiya De La Vega though, unless she proves otherwise today, I think she’s one to be on only when first-time fresh.
In the end I went for Katenko on the grounds that a five-times winner in France just come to hand over here, a mudlover and still only seven, and getting a potentially crucial 7lb off Bold Sir Brian, was worth a win-and-place bet, the place to get your money back for the risky win.
1.50 Cheltenham (VC Chase) The official view is that Sprinter Sacre is already, at age seven, half-a-stone better than Gold Cup and King George winner Long Run and a stone in front of last year’s winner of this, Somersby.
But a line through Kumbeshwar suggests that Sanctuaire is not far behind him on form, and the Paul Nicholls contender has beaten Somersby, last year’s winner of this, in the Celebration Chase.
They’ve probably not got to the bottom of Sanctuaire: he is a bit of a Somersby in that he’s the kind of animal you write off and then he puts in a momentous surge, as when he turned it round with Kumbeshwar at Kempton on heavy. Sprinter Sacre has never raced on heavy.
It would take a brave man to oppose him but this morning I could get a better offer Sanctuaire for the place (three chances) than I could get Sprinter Sacre for the win (one chance).
2.25 Cheltenham (Argento Chase) Favourites have blanked in this in the last decade, and Grands Crus has been beaten on very soft and heavy, albeit third in the King George.
That was a return to form after his Paddy power flop and following a wind operation. The fact remains he still has to win outside novice class, and this is D-Day on whether he goes for the Gold Cup.
Midnight Chase doesn’t seem to be in the form that won him this race last year and now has to give weight all round. The 2010 Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander, is 12 now but used to go well fresh and gets a few lengths start from every other runner.
Hunt Ball has come up short in all his Graded races and it was good ground when he at the Festival last March. Every runner today has won at Cheltenham: they share 27 successes here.
Weird Al is another who has to be caught first-time fresh but Quartz De Thaix seemed to improve on heavy over CD in December, being beaten only by the concession of nearly a stone to the thrown-on Master Overseer.
Another hard race which isn’t going to pay the mortgage. Four Gold Cup winners and two Grand National winners have won it, but would you care to nominate one for either race before today’s contest?
The rule is: if in doubt, take the horses in form that act on the ground. So which is it to be Cape Tribulation or Quartz De Thaix. My rival Pricewise has taken the value from ‘Quartz’ – that’s one of the tribulations of going second! – so Ill try the northern horse (at 9.2), a winner over hurdles at Cheltenham over 3m and impressive in a bog over the Wetherby fences last time.
2.45 Leopardstown Chase This race used to be top-notch (Arkle and Fort Leney won it), then it produced Grand National gambles but no winners except Last Suspect (1981), though there was that grand near miss in 2012.
Seabass, who shot 30lb up the handicap in the space of three months, and landed seven successive wins, was a gallant third at Aintree under Katie Walsh.
Seabass waits for the Irish Hennessy next month for his reappearance, and it’s Nina Carberry who carries the femme flag here on Organsideconfusion, a former Irish National winner.
You can back half a dozen in thisand still not get the winner, so I shall try to throw a seven with 28.0 BETDAQ offer Thegreatjohnbrowne, assuming he’s back to form and that I can lay off at very much shorter odds if he returns to his customary front-running tactics over this shorter trip.
3.00 Cheltenham (Neptune trial) This will probably decide more than any other race today. It’s a massive clash of wannabees.
Whisper was impressive in much lesser company but could leave that form behind. The New One looked a monster, scooting clear at Warwick, and Coneygree was a similar unchallenged winner when making all over 3m at Cheltenham last month.
But I can’t duck a bet when this race – and the next – is showing a super-friendly 103% list of offers in the orange.
And I fancy At Fishers Cross is overpriced at 7-1 due to the hype about The New One and Coneygree. He also won over the New Course at 3m, just like Coneygree, and also on heavy. But his win came in 9secs faster time against seniors not novices.
A P McCoy tells Telegraph readers today: ‘It looks like a match but they’ll have to perform right up to their bets to beat At Fishers Cross.’
As ever, I’m cheating: the hotpots I oppose, The New One and Sprinter Sacre, go in my Daq Multiples, along with Irish Saint, the nap of the day.
3.35 Cheltenham (Cleeve Hurdle) Nearly missed one. Or two. They are still going on this massive festival-type card, and this Cleeve Hurdle has always been championship level, with winners in the last five years including Inglis Drever, Grands Crus and Big Buck’s.
You could be looking at the World Hurdle winner in either Oscar Whisky or Reve De Silvola. With 103% list of offersi n the orange, I can back one of them and a stakes saver on the other will still only bring me in line with SP.
But the spanner in the works could be Kauto Stone, switched back from fences. Can he do a Big Buck’s? He’s no way the same type of animal – he’s small – but it could be the same making of him back over hurdles, and he’ll love the ground today.
I’ll try the same trick as in the VC Chase. A bit each way on Kauto Stone at 10.5, with Oscar Whisky doing duty in my Daq Mutiples.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts ROLLING STAR and DAQ VALUE BET: 15pts win (nap) IRISH SAINT (12.10 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: DAQ VALUE BET: 6.25pts win JOHNS SPIRIT, 2.8pts win RENARD D’IRLANDE, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) RAJDHANI EXPRESS (12.40 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET: 4pts win and place KATENKO (1.15 Cheltenham)
BET 1pt win and 5pts place SANCTUAIRE (1.50 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2.4pts win and place CAPE TRIBULATION (2.25 Cheltenham)
BET 0.7pts win and place THEGREATJOHNBROWNE (2.45 Leopardstown)
DAQ VALUE BET: 3.3pts win AT FISHERS CROSS (3.00 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2.2pts win and place KAUTO STONE (3.35 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 2pts win acca Irish Saint (12.10 Cheltenham), Sprinter Sacre (1.50 Cheltenham), The New One (3.00 Cheltenham) and Oscar Whisky (3.35 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Arvika Liegeonniere (1.45 Leopardstown), Sprinter Sacre (1.50 Cheltenham) and Whisper (3.00 Cheltenham)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Horses to follow are to 10pts win. Daq Multiples are as stated. Daq Value today signifies races where the total probability of the offers added up to between 105 and 108%.
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