7.2 ‘A CRAZY OFFER’ FOR THE NAP: Daqman concentrates on the four Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton Park this evening but he has a massive nap (7.2 offers this morning) at Leicester earlier. He reckons the price is ‘crazy.’
IT’S A LAY-DOWN FOR DAQMAN: Another favourite bit the dust as Daqman landed a lay at Wolverhampton on Asterism (unplaced 6-4) yesterday.
There was a crazy price for a son of Dom Alco this morning. The great grey sire is daddy of Al Ferof, Grands Crus, Neptune Collonges and Silviniaco Conti and, if Topaze Collonges (3.00 Leicester), has inherited only an iota of the power of these wonder horses, his chance in a class-4 chase at Leicester today is surely better than the 7.2 offers on BETDAQ.
He has McCoy against him but Material Boy has potential but not the form and the favourite, Regainaldinho, is penalized 9lb and has been out of the three both times on soft-heavy since he moved to Venetia Williams.
Topaze Collonges was winning so easily up the infamous Towcester hill in deep mud in December that he began to idle in front and though ‘always doing enough’ is penalized only 5lb.
4.50 Kempton (Betdaq Members Free Entry Every Wednesday Median Auction Maiden Stakes) There are more words in the title than there are horses in the race but the early BETDAQ betting dismissed only two of the runners, the tongue-twister Bonbon Bonnie and the punnily-named Don’t Be Scilly (my very words to her trainer, Eric Wheeler, last time we met).
Eric has an anniversary coming up in 17 days’ time: celebrating his last winner. He’s 348 days without one, Flat or jumps. All in the best possible taste, Eric.
The form of Con Leche (with milk) might be taken con poco sal (with a pinch of salt) but for the first-time ride for Luke Morris, the AW ace rider, who’s had more than 100 winners at Kempton.
Twist And Twirl did better at Lingfield over today’s trip (5f) than over today’s course on the debut (6f) and claiming off the Cockney Rebel filly gives her a 12lb advantage over Panther Patrol.
Panther Patrol is the reason why Bonbon Bonnie drifted like a lonely dog on a raft to 66.0 this morning, well over the betting weir: they were five lengths apart at Lingfield with Don’t Be Scilly behind.
Eve Johnson Houghton has been out of luck, without a winner in 13 weeks, and Panther Patrol was odds on when I checked the orange, so I took the 3.25 Twist And Twirl to give Derek Shaw’s Leicester stable four winners in a row, the hat-trick initiated here at Kempton on Monday.
5.20 Kempton (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Handicap) Purple ’n Gold’s form at Kempton is 1313 since November, a purple patch indeed, and a 5lb rise shouldn’t stop him since it puts him on a ratings par with his turf success.
Whitby Jet, also a CD winner – in a faster time – was nearly three lengths behind Purple ‘n Gold here three weeks ago and Willie Twiston-Davies’s allowance means that they meet on the same terms.
Sandwiched between the pair in the betting market are On The Hoof (Mick Easterby) and Canary Wharf (Marco Botti), whose trainers are in terrific form.
Botti has had five consecutive winners in the last 11 days at Kempton and Easterby has hit four at Wolverhampton, including a surprise 33-1 double there yesterday.
It’s a rare visit to Kempton by the Sheriff Hutton trainer whose special brand of Yorkshire venacular was mentioned in the House, according to today’s trade paper. We need a bit of commonsense in the Commons. You tell ’em, Mick.
But On The Hoof has never been to Kempton and never won this far. Canary Wharf is also a Wolver winner and his best flat form is on the soft. It all seems to add up to Purple ‘n Gold.
The next two races, both handicaps, have 14 declared in each; massive sport but a tricky task for the punter.
5.50 Kempton (Back And Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) It’s nearly six years since Roy Brotherton had a winner here, three-and-a-half years for Mick Quinn.
I shall take out their runners, along with others from stables out of form generally, or with very bad Kempton records. That removes 30-odd points from the downside of the book, giving me an orange list of offers of 80%.
It may not work out but you need an edge in these big fields. The handicapper is in the same boat as we are; he thinks he has them taped (in fact, to run a 14-horse dead-heat) but, at this level, horses hardly ever run the same race twice.
You only have to look at Michael’s Nook and Teen Ager, recent Kempton winners, who couldn’t do it again next time out.
In fact, it was Michael’s Nook who foiled back-to-back wins for Teen Ager and his next-time defeat was when dropped back a furlong on a softer surface at Wolverhampto0n.
But there’s a turnaround in weights between the pair today which brings them close together and has Vale Of Lingfield breathing down their necks. It makes you want to look elsewhere when they’re all of a heap like that.
Fleetwoodsands is a Wolver specialist so I’m inclined toward the mare Cut The Cackle, who appeared to come back to form last time out at Lingfield.
If she has, she could cut through this field and have the BETDAQ layers who offered me 7.6. cackling hysterically, since she’s 22lb lower than her CD win and races 11lb below the rating for her summer success on the turf at Hamilton.
6.20 Kempton (Betdaq Games £50 Cash Bonus Handicap) Litmus has recently run well in two different ways, from the front and from behind, but I wish Simon Dow’s yard had been showing better form running up to this race.
And the Litmus test is showing up more green than orange for this 10-time maiden, not a morning favourite I can fancy nor one likely to last into the afternoon.
Fashion Flow is from a yard currently scoring at a 33% strike-rate: she has to give weight all round but it’s a very short handicap of only 5lb and she is unexposed.
The Which Doctor’s connections seem dyslexic but he is, in fact, well named, by Medicean out of a Shareef Dancer mare, though so far hasn ‘t shown the Oomph of his eponymous dam. But down 15lb on his last Kempton AW win and 35lb below his last turf success.
Rigid is a CD winner who, like The Which Doctor, is having his second start after a summer-autumn break and he, too, could bounce back.
I’ll go for fit-from-hurdling Rigid at 9.4 this morning since I think we can ignore his summer turf form on soft ground and his last-time Wolver run after a break. Reunited with winning rider George Downing today.
Hidden down the orange is Compton Crofter (not Compton Target for me at this trip). ‘Crofter’ is from a yard doing well right now, is back to his right trip and was in the frame 5lb higher over CD in November.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win (nap) TOPAZE COLLONGES (3.00 Leicester)
BET 8.8pts win TWIST AND TWIRL (4.50 Kempton)
BET 10pts win PURPLE ’N GOLD (5.20 Kempton)
BET 3pts win and place CUT THE CACKLE (5.50 Kempton)
BET 2.3pts win RIGID and 1.6pts win COMPTON CROFTER (6.20 Kempton)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
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