DAQMAN’S NAPS START THE FLAT 60 POINTS UP IN 2013: Daqman has landed 31 of his 80 jumps naps in 2013 (strike rate of 38%) for a profit of almost 60 points – 59.28 to be precise – as detailed in the Daqman Library.
THREE BANKERS IN A ROW: His winning naps have included sequences of five in a row, four on the trot and three consecutive. There have been three maximum-stakes bankers, all winners.
ANOTHER 60-POINTS PROFIT ON HIS LAYS: Daqman also made 60 points profit – 60.23 to be precise – with 14 successful lays from 19 selections for a super strike-rate of 73%.
25-1 AND 16-1 WINNERS: He had winners in February and March at 25-1, 16-1 and 10-1. His big mistake was to drop his jackpot stakes at Cheltenham, when he had five winners in one day. But now for the Flat.
1.25 Doncaster (Brocklesby Stakes) You can reckon on only one winning favourite in 25 years! Other stats ‘information’ is that Bill Turner (5 wins) is the leading Brocklesby trainer, followed by Richard Fahey (2), both ridden by Paul Hanagan.
And it may be strongly significant that, in six of the last eight renewals at Doncaster, the Brocklesby winner has been drawn in double figures (stall 10 three times).
The lucky 10 stall is filled by Kraka Gym today, and Andrea Atzeni looks an interesting booking by another Brocklesby-winning stable, Rod Millman’s, for Dovil’s Duel (11) at 9.2 as I write.
My best news in the week was for Lord Clyde (Fahey), precocious at home though he’s a late foal (not two until end of April).
Lord Clyde has a good draw (stall 15) for a keen-going sort and is the ideal back-and-lay for day one. Mick’s Yer Man (Turner) has post position 13, with Ryan While hoping to emerge from Clyde’s slipstream to grab the prize in the final furlong.
Punters may shy away from the Turner runner because he’s the mount of an apprentice. In fact, Bill’s winners since 2006 have all three been ridden by a claimer!
2.00 Doncaster Arthur’s Secret got off the mark first time out last season. But, with Mystical Man likely to set a strong pace, I’m not sure about the step up in trip for ‘Arthur’, the son of a sprinter, though he looks well in on a line through Allnecessaryforce.
Ronaldinho, Mister Impatience and Mister Marcasite will all like the soft surface but we can’t be sure that applies to firm-ground scorer Havana Beat. Balding had a runner finish second in this last year and it went on to win at the Epsom Spring meeting.
2.30 Doncaster Shield Four-year-olds are looking for the hat-trick in this, and Model Pupil won his maiden first time out last season before being beaten a nose in the Group-3 Chester Vase.
That makes him long odds on here but, after being absent all summer after a setback, Model Pupil was beaten at Leicester by the 2011 winner of this race Cracking Lass.
Model Pupil will have been ‘got up’ for today, and Genzy was coming back from a long lay-off when fourth in that Leicester race, but the game mare, Cracking Lass, is value at 6.0 on BETDAQ to be the spoiler again.
Model Pupil and Genzy were obviously at a disadvantage at Leicester but it’s a small field again and Cracking Lass is nothing if not game. In a 105% list of offers in the orange, we can afford to save on the favourite.
3.35 Doncaster Like Arthur’s Secret (2.00), Shahdaroba, Kimberella and Heaven’s Guest all come to the first day gelded during the winter.
The old adage about ignoring last year’s form (‘that was last season, this is this season’) for second-season animals is never truer than here, then.
And punters expecting a flying start from a Jeremy Noseda runner – they’ve made Intimidate favourite this morning – must surely worry that that one was a bridesmaid with 3223 form-figures last season before getting off the mark.
4.10 and 5.20 Doncaster Richard Fahey, who trains the seven-year-old Viva Ronaldo, won this three years running (2009-11) but there’s been no winner of this over the age of five in its present form. Fahey has a four-year-old in the second division of this, Personal Touch.
The only potential edges we have, apart from the age ceiling, are early-season performers, trainers in form and the probable prevalence of high numbers in the draw.
Those stats single out one horse from the two divisions: Warfare (5.20) is fit from AW, won at Ascot last Spring, is drawn 14, has his ground, and is saddled off joint-top rating in the Racing Post by early-bird trainer Kevin Ryan: 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Docofthebay hasn’t won on turf since October 2010 and never on soft ground, while Jonjo O’Neill (no winners at Doncaster in 17 years!) has seen his Bankroll drift like a lonely dog on a raft, over the betting-weir to 17.0.
4.45 Doncaster This is the race that’s saved favourite backers before: the market has got it right six times in eight years! In each case punters have correctly sided with a top trainer and jockey.
The snag for me is that, from Munhamer to Lightning Launch, there was just 1.6 points covering five horses this morning, so no clear favourite and a queue at the front of the market. You will know better than I can tell you here.
But another gelded during the winter, Khelman, suited by trip and ground, and working well at home, had the full confidence of trainer Fahey behind him here until landed with the one stall. It may not stop him.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.6pts win MICK’S YER MAN and 2.4pts win DOVIL’S DUEL (1.25 Doncaster)
BET 4pts CRACKING LASS and 3.8pts win (stakes saver) MODEL PUPIL (2.30 Doncaster)
BET 5pts win (nap) KHELMAN (4.45 Doncaster)
BET 3.4pts win PERSONAL TOUCH and 2.8pts win WARFARE (5.20 Doncaster)
EARLY-BIRD HORSES TO FOLLOW: Lord Clyde (1.25 Doncaster), Arthurs Secret (2.00 Doncaster)
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