IT’S THE SATURDAY OF THE CENTURY! Big races galore abound in a day of days on turf, over jumps and on Tapeta, whether it’s the £18million Dubai World Cup spectacular or the £135,000 Lincoln card at Doncaster.
DAQMAN BIDS FOR A WHOLE WEEK OF PROFIT: What a day to try for seven days without loss! Daqman has made money on all five racing days since Sunday with a 10-1 jackpot hit and winners at 5-1 (twice), 9-2, 4-1 (twice), 3-1, 6-4 (nap).
LUCKY 11 BIG-RACE JACKPOT BETS: So today he has selected 11 big races from Doncaster, Haydock, Kempton, Meydan and Musselburgh, raising his stakes all day to jackpot level, and adding for good measure Daq Multiples jackpot doubles.
1.10 Meydan (Godolphin Mile) It is topical, but by no means typical, that a Lincoln Handicap winner now attempts this £368,000 Group 2, and you can look at that in two ways.
Penitent was a seriously good thing when he won at Doncaster for William Haggas, or he’s improved a ton since moving to David O’Meara.
I’ll plump for a mix of both and fancy the mix has most to fear from the fascinating four-year-old improver, Soft Falling Rain (Paul Hanagan).
But what that one beat in the UAE 2,000 Guineas was not good enough to raise his rating from 113, so he is still officially behind Alpha (116), whose stable has won the race nine times, Penitent (Daniel Tudhope) and Moonwalk In Paris, both on 115.
The one I like is Surfer, 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning. He has been beaten in two 10-furlong Group races on Tapeta this year but in both was the victim of Hunter’s Light, a hot order later on for the World Cup, and will appreciate the drop back to a mile.
Jackpot bets: 8.5pts win SOFT FALLING RAIN and 3.75pts win SURFER
1.20 Doncaster You are looking for an animal aged four or five, trained by the usual Yorkshire suspects in a sprint, David Barron and Richard Fahey.
But Michael Bell interrupted the North’s run in this race with the gambled-on Horseradish (2011) and now has King Of Jazz. Wouldn’t have a prayer on backend form but is a different animal in the Spring.
He won his maiden at this Doncaster meeting two years ago and was narrowly beaten in the Haydock Silver Bowl. Last year he was third behind Colonel Mak in today’s race, then third in the Victoria Cup at Ascot over 7f, which is probably his optimum trip.
King Of Jazz is 10lb lower than he was at Ascot in soft ground that day, and 9lb below his mark in this last year, 11lb better off with the winner, Colonel Mak. But the key to this may be the draw.
King Of Jazz was drawn 4 that day when Colonel Mak came out of 15 and the runner-up from 11. Yes, it’s groundhog day today, with stall 8 to the ‘King’ and 15 for ‘Mak.’
The last time this 6f handicap was run on deep ground – in 2008 – the result by stall was 1, 6, 4, 3, 5, 2 out of 17.
Jackpot bet: 4.6pts win KING OF JAZZ
1.55 Doncaster (Spring Mile) Four-year-olds are 8 from 10 and we haven’t had a winner in five years below 9st 3lb. A race for big SPs: recently 50-1, 33-1, 20-1, 18-1, 14 and 12.
I had one of my early-bird horses to follow, Gaul Wood, down for the Chester May meeting but he won first time last season and must have a big shout in this – 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning – with Educate reportedly not working well at home.
Jackpot bet: 3.3pts win GAUL WOOD
2.25 Meydan (UAE Derby) Saeed Bin Suroor (7) and Mike De Kock (5) dominate the race this century though Aidan O”Brien took it last year and is represented by the lightly-raced Polytrack winner Lines Of Battle (Ryan Moore).
He is inevitably rated lower than Richard Hannon’s (Saint-cloud) Gran Criterium winner, Law Enforcement (Richard Hughes).
This is essentially a Classic-colts race and I can’t fancy the two Mike De Kock four-year-olds. Stalls 7 to 13 have taken six of the nine places – all three wins – on Tapeta, which leans me toward Saeed Bin Suroor’s joint-top rated, Secret Number (Silvestre De Sousa) and Shuruq (Paul Hanagan), with Dubai Destination’s half-brother Secret Number the one to be on I hear.
The big grey Keiai Leone is one of those ‘could be anything’ as the top-rated Japanese two-year-old on dirt last year and beaten less than two lengths in his prep for this in Tokyo.
A lay-and-back, as he gets miles behind in his races and comes with a rattle at the business end: 12.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Jackpot bets: 13pts win SECRET NUMBER and 2.6pts win KEIAI LEONE
2.30 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) If you remove all runs by Captain Ramius on man-made surfaces since June 2011, you end up with the following form-figures: 14134141.
Fit from Meydan, his 7.0 is good value, with Jack Dexter (stakes saver) the obvious threat under Graham Lee.
Jackpot bets: 5pts win CAPTAIN RAMIUS and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) JACK DEXTER
2.40 Haydock (Grass Roots Hurdle Final) Somerset shrewdie Colin ‘Cue Card’ Tizzard, with son Joe riding as well as ever, has stepped Flaming Charmer back up in trip, at the same time applying a first-time tongue tie.
I took 9.8 this morning, though aware that Tony McCoy rates Leader Of The Gang his best chance of the day in a column he devotes to his dilemma over the choice between Sunnyhillboy and Colbert Station for the National. Since you haven’t read it, let me tell you the outcome: he’s still dithering.
Jackpot bets: 6pts win LEADER OF THE GANG and 3.4pts win FLAMING CHARMER
2.55 Kempton Park (Rosebery Stakes) Four-year-olds have the best Rosebery record (five of the last seven); those below 9st a poor strike rate (one winner in the last seven years).
A good run by Robin Hood’s Bay in the Listed Magnolia Stakes (2.20) would boost CD-winner Spifer (6.2 favourite on BETDAQ as I write), who ran him to a neck here over a furlong shorter.
Buckland is the improver but Cry Fury the job horse. Roger Charlton’s Beckhampton team is fighting fit at home and, when produced for a tilt last season (in to 8-1), Cry Fury was hampered out of it.
Jackpot bets: 5.7pts win SPIFER and 2.5pts win CRY FURY
3.05 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap) Who is going to thank Chosen Character for the pace to this race? Coming out of stall 13, he is the only confirmed front-runner I could find.
Though, overall, a low draw has proved best, stalls 12 and 16 have had the winner in four of the last six years.
Since they now surround the likely pace from 13, and have a short-runner among them (Gladys’ Gal in 15), they should tow Brae Hill to history in an arrow formation down the middle of the course.
Richard Fahey’s seven-year-old could well become the first back-to-back winner since Babur (1957-8) for Capt Charles Elsey, who trained in the same part of Yorkshire.
Eshtibaak (stall 20) has won twice when fresh and was Paul Hanagan’s pick of the John Gosden pair before the race clashed with Dubai.
On the low-numbered side, I stand by my ante-post fancy, Captain Bertie, winner of the Newbury Spring Cup last April and runner-up on an even wider, open track at Newmarket, second in the Bunbury Cup.
My reason for making Brae Hill first choice (1 Brae Hill, 2 Captain Bertie, 3 Eshtibaak) is that I don’t think the race is as strong as last year.
The only Group performer, Majestic Myles, has lost his way and is looking to get some help from the handicapper, but last year the second horse home behind Brae Hill won a Group 3, the third won a Listed and also ran in Group 3, the fourth was second in a Group 3, and the fifth won a Listed.
If any with Group pretenders are lurking, they must be aged four or five, where Captain Bertie and Eshtibaak seem to dominate. Sorted!
Jackpot bets: 4pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE, 3.75pts win ESHTIBAAK, 1.75pts win BRAE HILL
3.35 Musselburgh (Royal Mile) Khelman (14.5 on BETDAQ as I write) ‘isn’t really progressing’, says the Racing Post Musselburgh Spotlight.
Try telling that to trainer Richard Fahey, who reckons the horse one of his best chances of a good handicap this Spring: will £31,125 do for you, Richard?
Fahey is going for a clean sweep in this, having won the first two runnings. His new recruit, Fantacise (by Pivotal), would come into it if it rains, and is also easy to back at 10.0. Fahey won the race last year with Fantacise’s brother.
Mark Johnston has three tries to topple Fahey, of which Greeleys Love is the morning order and, therefore, my saver.
Jackpot bets: 3.3pts win FANTACISE and 2.2pts win KHELMAN with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) GREELEYS LOVE
3.50 Haydock (Grass Roots Chase Final) Can anything stop Rouge Et Blanc and one of the claimer finds of the jumps season, Thomas Garner?
The more I weigh this up, the more I think not. Has cruised through his races so far and a good price (6.2 on BETDAQ as I write) tackling better company. By the same sire as Marasonnien, who runs in the Irish National for Willie Mullins on Monday.
Jackpot bet: 5.7pts win (nap) ROUGE ET BLANC
6.05 Meydan (Dubai World Cup) You want a distance winner from a middle stall (as may have been confirmed by now in the UAE Derby).
Andrew Balding’s Side Glance (max winning trip 9f) and Ed Dunlop’s Red Cadeaux (wins all at 12f and 14f) clearly have work to do but Marco Botti’s Planteur seemed as good as ever when he won the Lingfield Winter Derby trial in track-record time.
Planteur looked edgy before this race last year, was caught out wide, and did well to finish third. But he’s six now and, in seven of the last 10 years, you would have been right to expect a younger horse to overtake him.
Hunter’s Light (Saeed Bin Suroor – Silvestre De Sousa) will be very hard to beat, going for a hat-trick on Tapeta.
But I remember shouting ‘unlucky’ when Animal Kingdom got trapped with nowhere to go in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November.
He came back this year in a Grade 1, again suggesting that tonight’s 1m 2f would suit his style.
The American horses have yet to show on Tapeta but, with good form on Turf, Polytrack and dirt, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom is the one to make the breakthrough.
Jackpot bets: 7pts win HUNTER’S LIGHT, 5.3pts win ANIMAL KINGDOM
DAQMAN JACKPOTS SUMMARY
BET 8.5pts win SOFT FALLING RAIN and 3.75pts win SURFER (1.10 Meydan)
BET 4.6pts win KING OF JAZZ (1.20 Doncaster)
BET 3.3pts win GAUL WOOD (1.55 Doncaster)
BET 13pts win SECRET NUMBER and 2.6pts win KEIAI LEONE (2.25 Meydan)
BET 5pts win CAPTAIN RAMIUS and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) JACK DEXTER (2.30 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win LEADER OF THE GANG and 3.4pts win FLAMING CHARMER (2.40 Haydock)
BET 5.7pts win SPIFER and 2.5pts win CRY FURY (2.55 Kempton)
BET 4pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE, 3.75pts win ESHTIBAAK, 1.75pts win BRAE HILL (3.05 Doncaster)
BET 3.3pts win FANTACISE and 2.2pts win KHELMAN with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) GREELEYS LOVE (3.35 Musselburgh)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) ROUGE ET BLANC (3.50 Haydock)
BET 7pts win HUNTER’S LIGHT, 5.3pts win ANIMAL KINGDOM (6.05 Meydan)
DAQ MULTIPLES JACKPOT DOUBLES: 2 x 2pts win doubles Spifer and Cry Fury (2.55 Kempton) with Rouge Et Blanc (3.50 Haydock)
EARLY-BIRD HORSES TO FOLLOW: Gaul Wood (1.55 Doncaster), Captain Bertie (3.05 Doncaster)
* Excluding multiples, Daqman’s bets are all raised in stake today to win 30 points. You know the BETDAQ offer he took by dividing 30 by the stake.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
