THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO: Daqman today launches his manifesto for betting value, which he will support with a portfolio of facts and figures on the real ratings worth of horses in training and the real meaning of Classic trials and big-race results.
THE BENEFIT OF BETDAQ: Daqman stresses the value of exchange betting. ‘Trust the Daq’ he says for consistently punter-friendly offers which enable you to get a position that puts you in play with a big chance of a profit as prices change throughout the day.
False trail of the ratings We saw early in the month in the Grand National how blind ratings – official ones – create havoc in racing: the last 10 winners at Aintree lost 87 of their subsequent 88 races.
We saw last year how a ‘freak’ like Frankel drags up the ratings ladder in his wake horses that have no right to be there.
False prices We have seen time and again in this column how only value makes you a winner, how hyped horses create false prices, and that the reality is to get on early, with confidence, in a BETDAQ market which is stunningly punter-friendly.
We saw the massive eventual overrounds on the Grand National card. How the BETDAQ morning offers for each race were 102, 102, 103, 105, 102, 112, 109, total probability percentages.
But the Grand National SPs over 10 years had resulted in totals of 124, 107, 125, 121, 152, 134, 126. In fact, the Total SP recorded on the National by the Racing Post this year was 148%.
The Daqman Manifesto This column will create its own ratings portfolio and assessments, exposing the truth, like the scandal of the Grand National weights.
We will start with the Classic trials, checking out the real meaning of Sunday’s Leopardstown tests, alongside the Craven Meeting trials at Newmarket this week.
We’ll look closely at all these races, and all those in the public eye, where received wisdom – like the National weights – confounds your betting and gives you false odds.
This column recognizes the massive value in the BETDAQ orange, as my jackpot bets prove over and over. So do my ante-post bets: whether or not they win, they give you huge ‘overs’, so reducing those awful overrounds to underround situations.
In other words, your first position on a market – whether it’s ante-post or on the day – gives you an edge on BETDAQ that enables you to play the changing prices right up to the ‘off’ so you can manipulate your bank and win money.
Join the punters who win regularly Are you one of those who complain about short prices, but at the same time curse the long-odds bets you have because they rarely win?
There are two hard lessons in punting: the first is that you are not looking for the winner, you are looking for the value. Value alone wins in the long run.
The second is that value may be found at a short price, just as much as in long odds. Equally, therefore, bad value may be found at a big price just as much as at odds on.
The search for value is to find the ‘wrong’ price, offers bigger than they should be, and to avoid the bad deal, where the odds on the table are shorter than they should be.
Betdaq Tips can give you a sequence of short-priced winners; it is your job to decide whether they are backable, value-wise, when you scan the offers in the orange. You have a head start because of the low, low overround.
Betdaq Tips may give you big-priced winners; it is the same task you have: are they worth backing or are they big odds because they do not have big chances? An immediate help with your answer is that, because of those low overrounds, the horse is better value than you can expect elsewhere.
The overall view must always be: short odds or big, winners at Betdaq offers provide the chance of a long-term overall-value strategy that can work.
There are other strategies: level stakes, step-up stakes, doubling up, the 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 method; in fact, all sorts of staking systems. But you must begin with this basic overall-value strategy.
I make sure that Daqman bets are assessed to the same profit yield. Each one is staked to win 20, more if I think we are in a solid-form race.
Take this simplistic view: if you bet on 7-1 shots with a bookie all the time, you can have six losers and only one winner, and finish in front by a point at level stakes. Maybe.
But look deeper and you find that the bookie ‘overrounds’ the probability total of his prices, adding them up so that he pays out less than he takes in.
So his 7-1 shots don’t give you 7-1 value but something less than that, depending on whether he is overround by 107% or 123% SP (the long and the short of it at a Musselburgh meeting I just picked from the form book at random). In the bookie’s scheme of things you could, in effect, be getting only 5-1 in terms of value, not the seeming 7-1.
Wouldn’t it be so much better if you could reverse that trend: back every 5-1 shot at 7-1, so ‘getting value’ and improving your overall returns.
That way round, if you aim for a one-point profit, for which you need one winner in five, you make three points because you got 7-1.
So it is that, on Betdaq, whether you back Shamrock’s short-odds winning sequences, or Daqman’s longer-priced jackpot coups, you have a massive swing in your favour from the start.
By the way, the Shamrock and Daqman successes are reported the next day at SP. But that very SP contains the bookies’ punitive overround.
So, in fact, when we give you those returns, we are being harsh on ourselves, advertising our winners in, for the most part, the worst-case scenario.
You could most likely have had vastly better offers on Betdaq in the morning and leading up to the race.
Trust the Daq. Offers are not better prices once or twice, one meeting or two. They are better consistently
And if the offers look shorter than they should be? What do you do then? Well, you don’t have to accept offers shorter than your personal pricing-up. You can bet against them winning.
Be a bookie yourself and oppose the favourite or anything else you consider a bad offer. Lay them, my son, lay them!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 15pts win (nap) SHOOTERS WOOD (1.50 Kempton)
BET 7pts win TO LIVE (2.20 Kempton)
Daqman’s bets are all backed to win 20 points today
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