THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO CONTINUED: STAKING PLAN: Daqman has been outlining his new plans to find more winners from in-depth analysis. Today he reveals his staking plan based on the type of racing and what results can be expected.
TIP-TOP TIPPING AND IT’S ALL FREE ON BETDAQ: He will summarise the Daqman manifesto after each innovation has been running a while. He will also be compiling his own private ratings from the Classic trials so far. It’s all in the tip-top BETDAQ Tips service. And it’s all free to discerning punters.
To say you’ll leave nothing to chance is an impossible gambit in the betting game. We can only try to reduce the odds against us by eliminating the likely losers, take positions where we have value and play those areas we are best at.
It’s hard work. But we know from our past results, and we know from the racing on the day, what the most likely outcome will be for any given meeting.
We can divide those meetings up into a) standard b) above average c) jackpot days, and we can stake accordingly. Today is a standard day, because you are basically dealing with so many unknowns among the three-year-olds.
Don’t forget, we sometimes lift a race out of the obscurity of a standard day by increasing our stakes to jackpot level. Each day the target will be an overall profit; in theory, the selections will require a definite result to show an overall profit. I will tell you what that is at the end of the column. Good luck!
1.45 and 5.15 Newmarket I put Tawtheeq (1.45) in my horses-to-follow Early Bird list well before the Lincoln, based on what I’d heard from East Everleigh.
I wrote: ‘Full-brother to a first-time Doncaster winner, by the same sire as the flying Equiano, and from a yard that likes to chalk up a hatful of winners in the Spring.’
But the Doncaster bit no longer applies and Hannon has two goes at the race today. It’s not a race he normally wins and, in fact, the same owner has one with Charles Hills in the field, Estifzaaz, ridden by Paul Hanagan.
To simply say that Estifzaaz was favourite this morning does not reveal the nature of the market, where they were going 6.2 the field. In other words, at that time, no one had a clue what would happen.
But, at 0% commission in a 107% total-probability ‘book’ in the orange, the race was so punter friendly on BETDAQ as to tempt a pound.
If you go with the stable form, it has to be Assembly (9.0 on BETDAQ), whose yard is on a hat-trick here after two runs, two wins, in the last fortnight. Willie Haggas can score with them first time and Assembly’s brother, Enact, won on the debut.
Haggas runs two more debutants in the 5.15: Battalion, an Authorised colt entered in the Derby, and Sacred Square. All eyes in this one will be on Frankel’s half-brother, Morpheus, though Demonic is the first choice of the stable jockey.
2.20 Newmarket The market has got this right five years in a row, with no winner bigger than 6-5, and Split Rock had leapfrogged the forecast favourites to head the list in the orange at the time of writing.
The colt won on his debut eight days ago and is from the only yard in this field with any depth to it. Could be much shorter than 3.0 as the race gets nearer.
2.55 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions Sprint) I said yesterday, as part of my manifesto, that we would keep an eye on the form from a ratings point of view.
Here’s an example: this is a lot of money for a class 2, and the reaction is that it’s a top-class race. Not so far it ain’t! The only previous winners, just two of them, never won again in a total of 12 attempts.
Both came out of this with inflated ratings of 102 and 103. They were made to race off those marks until at least July; subsequently not even a drop of a stone could help one of them.
The two were well fancied for this, in to 4-1 and 10-3 SP, so the conclusion is that the pair were ‘got up’ for the race, pulling out all the stops at a time when other animals are not yet fit.
This time Richard Hannon has three runners but the market, as for the last race, saw one of his, the third in the forecast, Victrix Ludorum, leapfrog to the front of the market on BETDAQ.
Obviously, Molecomb and Cornwallis winner, Bungle inthejungle is a worry. With him, it’s a question of whether he wants another furlong now or whether he will remain a 5f sprinter pure and simple. The stable wants to know and today’s the day to find out.
3.30 Newmarket (Free Handicap) and 5.45 Newmarket The Free Handicap has not been a Classic guide since Mystiko (1991) went on to win the Guineas. The ‘European’ in the title simply means it is based on the agreed northern-hemisphere ratings for last year’s two-year-olds.
In theory it’s a good year. The top weight, racing off 113, is reckoned 6lb or so better than one of the star winners of this, Red Jazz, and 9lb better than the subsequent Jersey Stakes winner, Ouqba, who won this in 2009.
The implication is that there is a quality horse somewhere in the top half of the field: the market says it is not Anna’s Pearl, giving away up to 13lb. and a drifter out to 9.0 at the time of writing, along with Well Acquainted.
Despite the fire power of Richard Hannon with Emell and Alhebayeb, Richard Fahey’s Garswood, beaten only a head by Bungle inthejungle in the Cornwallis, was clear market leader this morning, with the trainer comparing him with Mayson, who won at this meeting, saying that Garswood has wintered ‘exceptionally well.’
However, he rates Time And Place (5.45), already a winner at Yarmouth this year and working really well at home, as his best of the day and a horse for the future.
It’s a big field with a handicap range of 19lb and, checking those ratings for what looks realistic at this stage, Professor and Equitania seem hard done by, while Upavon, Line Of Reason, Tartary, Bluegrass Blues and Panther Patrol have to translate AW form to turf.
Where the pace is will count for a lot. Again, we only think we know from last year, but there is a strong chance it will be low: Dutch Masterpiece (stall 2), Alcando (6) and Equitania (7) would lead Time And Place and Line Of Reason.
Line Of Reason will be suited by the strong gallop and could have been underestimated by 4lb or 5lb in the ratings, if only they translate to turf. If he’s a genuine improver, then expect even more.
4.05 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) This produced a 1,000 Guineas winner in 2006 and she was the only one of two successful in this in the decade to be able to give away a Group penalty, as Sky Lantern must do here.
The total probability of offers in the orange this morning added up to a low 106% but we are relying entirely on last year’s form.
Sky Lantern won the Moyglare before being hampered out of the Breeders Cup; Baileys Jubilee was beaten a length in the Cheveley Park (Jadanna eighth); Reyaadah has strictly three lengths to make up on Sky Lantern and Sorella Bella was runner-up in the Gran Criterium, Nargys in the Rockfel.
But, as I’ve said repeatedly, last year’s form is last year’s, this is this year, as far as three-year-olds are concerned. Any one of them could have wintered badly or have improved out of all recognition.
We have only the market as a guide at this early stage but it’s not been terribly helpful in the last three years with winners at 6-1, 14-1 and 28-1. Pass.
4.40 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) One or two have gone on from this: we’ve had a King Edward Vll winner and a Lingfield Derby trial winner.
But it can hardly be a look-see race for Andre Fabre: Intello is not going to find a Classic yardstick here, so we have to assume Fabre needs the money (or Intello the better ground over here)!
The one line he is likely to get is from the only horse seriously considered against him in the market, Race And Status, a Guineas, Dante and Derby entry.
But Andrew Balding warns that Race And Status has been hard to get fit this Spring (what Spring!), and his runners very often need the run, so, in theory, at 9.8 bar two, Intello – French and Irish Derby candidate – is a good bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 2.5pts win ASSEMBLY (1.45 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win SPLIT ROCK (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 7pts win VICTRIX LUDORUM (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 5.8pts win GARSWOOD (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win (nap) INTELLO (4.40 Newmarket)
BET 8pts win MR MOLE (5.35 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win TIME AND PLACE and 2.3pts win LINE OF REASON (5.45 Newmarket)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Arthur’s Secret (2.35 Beverley), Tawtheeq (1.35 Newmarket)
DAQMAN’S TARGET TODAY: All bets are staked to win 20 points, which makes it a standard day. Selections require a minimum of two winners to show an overall profit: one of the 10-pointers and one other.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
