HP Byron Nelson Championship
After a fabulous Players Championship at Sawgrass, the US Tour heads to the TPC Four Seasons resort in Irving, Texas, for the $6.7 million HP Byron Nelson Championship.
Because of its proximity to the US Open, the field lining up at this par 70 of 7,166 yards – which comprises two par 5s, 12 par 4s and four par 3s – is not a particularly strong one.
Defending champion Jason Dufner (pictured) is among the favourites in a field that is headed by Australia’s Jason Day.
While the field may be bereft of stars such as Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and that Tin Cup Spaniard who smiled as our 32-1 ante-post wager sank to the bottom of a lagoon surrounding the 17th green at Sawgrass (not once, but twice – and it is only 137 yards from tee to green), it is often the big names who come to the fore. Since 2008, Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley and Jason Dufner have all triumphed.
Considered a thinking golfers golf course, players don’t need to be long, but have to have imagination, and shape their iron shots on the many strategic par 4s. Those who have good Greens In Regulation (GIR) and Driving Accuracy percentages must be considered but while it is still a tough track, TPC Four Seasons slipped from fifth most difficult on the PGA Tour in 2011, to 14th last season. However, the Texas wind invariably plays an interesting cameo and double-digit scores are few and far between. The forecast is for temperatures into the mid to upper 80s and winds to be in the 15-20mph range. Expect the winning score to be around 11 or 12 under par, but it might come via extra holes – since 1968, 17 of the 45 winners here have won in a playoff.
And if you want a glimpse of the future, 14-year-old Guan Tianlang tees off, fresh from making the cut at The Masters and at TPC Louisiana – hardly cupcake courses. He tied for 58th at Augusta and finished 71st in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
His maturity is astounding. Despite fast-paced few months, nothing fazes the 5ft 8in, 125lb eighth grader. Can’t wait until he’s giving Tiger Woods advice on where to legally drop a ball (how did he get away with it on the 14th at Sawgrass, plopping the ball in the water and no-one questioning his highly questionable drop?) or Sergio Garcia on how to avoid choking again (wishful thinking).
Then there’s 19-year-old Texas native Jordan Spieth, who received the sponsor’s other exemption. He’s recorded two top 10s and made a handy $662,398 this season. Spieth is 40.0 with BETDAQ, while Tainlang is 995.0.
Jason Day looks an obvious favourite. He has both historic form at the course and recent form to warrant heading the market. The Aussie won on his debut here in 2010, was fifth in 2011 and was T9 here last year. He has four top 10s this year and while he still does not seem to have his flat stick in top form, he must be considered. But he simply isn’t making enough putts for our liking, though, and until he does, a top 10 finish at 2.62 with BETDAQ is perhaps the best we can hope for.
There is also a Top 5 market and if we had to have a player whom we think may go close, but might not quite get over the line, then Keegan Bradley, at 5.4, will do for us. This was the site of his only Tour win in 2011 and while he comes into this tournament off of consecutive missed cuts, his last top 10 came in the Lone Star state, at the Shell Houston Open. While he’s only hitting 66.6% of GIR (putting him 61st in the PGA list, he’s due a bounce back and it may well be here.
There are also markets for the Top European and Top Australian golfer. Taking each in turn, this looks a course made for Martin Kaymer, who joined the Tour full time this year but has yet to set it alight. The German, who sank the winning putt in the Ryder Cup, is hitting only 63.46% of GIR but his putting is still very solid and if he is patient and can grind his way into contention over the first two days, his confidence will return. He is no more than a fair bet at 6.4 in a weak European contingent, spearheaded by Fredrik Jacobson and Marcel Siem.
The Australian challenge is formidable. Aside from Day, Marc Leishman is playing as well as anyone, recording top 10s in the Masters, RBC Heritage and The Players Championship. This is a course he seems to enjoy, having finished in the top 12 in three previous visits with one missed cut in another. He is 40th in scoring average and his GIR figure is rising fast, although he’s still hitting 64.1%. Leishman is 3.5 to be the top Aussie and that’s reasonable value.
But who are our men to follow in the outright market?
Jason Dufner @ 18.5
Dufner does Dallas. The defending champion has not made a top 10 finish this season – his best was a T12 at the WGC-Cadillac back in early March. Only Tom Watson and Bruce Lietzke are the only multiple winners here in the last 40 years. Those are the negatives. There are positives, though, with course form (T8 in 2011) the most obvious one. His accuracy and length of the tee is always going to keep him in contention. A two-time winner last year, Dufner has struggled mightily with his putting this season, dropping from 78th to 153rd in the Strokes Gained Putting stats, but he has still managed to earn four top 25s this season and has made nine of 11 cuts. He is 13th in Driving Accuracy and his GIR percentage isn’t bad, at 67.14%. And anyone who saw him make an eagle on the 18th in round one at Sawgrass – just the third player to manage this feat – will know that he is one of the best shapers of iron shots around. In a weak field, he merits the upmost respect.
Charl Schwartzel @ 21.0
In all honesty, we should not be too keen on the price for the South African, who should be a few points higher given that he hasn’t broken 70 in his last 12 rounds. However, he is one of the finest putters around and while this is his first time on the course, his distance off the tee will help. He handles the par 4s well – he is 13th in the PGA’s Par 4 Birdie or Better category – has made 14 consecutive cuts and has five top 25 finishes from seven events. His class in this weak field means he should be thereabouts and we expect a big bounce-back week.
Ryan Palmer @ 28.0
It is tough to know what emotional shape Ryan is in following the loss of his best friend in a traffic accident in San Antonio, Texas, last week at the age of 36. Golf may just be the release he needs and you can be sure that those in the galleries will be behind him. He was two shots off the lead at The Players with three holes to play, playing with a heavy heart and carded a 10-under par T5 finish, his best finish prior to that at Sawgrass was a T75 (he missed the cut six times in his previous visits). There is no question he is playing well enough to win here. The Texan is 20th in par-four scoring and 17th in ball striking. Those numbers make him a solid play.
Jimmy Walker @ 35.0
If Walker had not found water on the 17th at Sawgrass, he would have carded a final round 65. Consistency means he is a contender – he’s made 22 consecutive cuts, the best on Tour. And he tops the Par Four Performance charts, so he has plenty of opportunities to make a score at TCP Four Seasons Resort, even though he has made just one top 25 from seven attempts here (missed the cut twice).
Padraig Harrington @ 98.0
While looking for an outsider, we considered Robert Garrigus (in form, long off the tee, good course form), Rod Pampling (T8 and T23 in five starts here for the Dallas resident), Harris English (solid putter and good ball striker) and Brian Gay (very good course form with T7, T2 and T14 finishes in the last five years). But in the end, we simply think Harrington looks way too big to pass up. He was T15 here last year. A lack of accuracy off the tee can sometimes put pressure on his second shots, but his tremendous iron play rarely means it is a problem. His putting has let him down, but he has the imaginative game around the greens to keep him contending. With two top 10 finishes this season he looks a back-to-lay proposition at a massive price.
Tournament Match Betting
Charl Schwartzel to beat Louis Oosthuizen
Oosthuizen has bags of talent and comes here off the back of a T19 at The Players. But he did not fare well here last year – with three double bogeys and a triple bogey in a missed cut.
Robert Garrigus to be D A Points
Points is in great form at present, with a runner-up in the Zurich, a T16 at Quail Hollow and a decent weekend at The Players, with only one round being disappointing. He has T19, T40, T7 and a third-place finish here in his four visits. We just think Garrigus is ready for a really good showing and his power off the tee will give him plenty of opportunities to post a low score.
Ben Crane to beat Jeff Overton
In the top 10 in his last four starts, Crane has made the cut in his last four starts here and was T7 in 2010. He is putting well. Overton has posted two top 10s at TPC Four Seasons in five starts since 2008 and has two top 10s in 2013. It’s a close call and it is one of the more interesting match-ups this weekend, but we think Crane is on a roll and he plays hot in bunches.
Volvo World Matchplay
Since moving from Wentworth in 2009, the Championship has evolved considerably.
A world-class field has assembled by qualification, and the field has increased to 24 players.
The qualified players are divided into eight groups of three to be played out on Thursday and Friday with 16 players progressing to Saturday’s knock-out stage with the semi-finals and final played on Sunday.
Nicolas Colsaets is the reigning champion as the event moves to Bulgaria and the spectacular Thracian Cliffs resort for the first time. He faces South Africa’s Branden Grace and Thialand’s Kiradech Aphibarnrat in his group. Colsaerts is available at 2.13 to win the group and should be followed, despite the fact he’s had problems getting his clubs flown out to Bulgaria, which is not exactly ideal preparartion.
Ian Poulter arrives from Florida having missed the cut at The Players following on the back of his first missed cut of his career at The Masters.
He won this in 2011 and is among the favourites to do so again. His match-play record borders on brilliant and while he is in a tough group comprising Thongchai Jaidee and Thomas Aiken, Poulter should be followed. He is 1.88 to win the Assar Gabrielsson Group at Betdaq and if he had shown any sort of form coming in here, he would be much shorter.
Henrik Stenson also travels from Florida, having had another good weekend at TPC Sawgrass. He was contending for much of Sunday, only to falter over the last few holes. That was a mentally challenging experience and he could be drained enough to take on with Francesco Molinari at 2.88 in the Greg Norman Group, which also comprises Felipe Aguilar.
We take big George Coetzee at 2.79 to overcome Peter Hanson and Shane Lowry in the Arnold Palmer Group, and tournament favourite Graeme McDowell at a big-looking 2.14 to see off Chris Wood and Stephen Gallagher in the Seve Ballesteros Group.
Picking the outright winner in match play tournaments is very difficult. However, we think having a stab at these two might give us a decent back-to-lay opportunity:
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 17.5
The Dane made it to the second round of the Accenture Match Play, tied for seventh at Bay Hil, and was T6 at The Masters. This creative shot maker, the winner of the Sicilian Open last year and T9 at The Open Championship, is a rising star who will be quite at home in the windy conditions on this coastal resort.
Gonzalo Fernandez Castano @ 22.0
The Spaniard tied for third at Bay Hill and was a T20 at The Masters, but it was his performance in the Accenture Match Play which leads us to believe he has the game for this kind of event. While he reached the third round, Webb Simpson needed 18 holes to finally put him away, as Castano almost erased a four-shot deficit on the back nine and made five birdies and 10 pars in his round. Those battling qualities mean he cannot be ignored.
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