CLASSIC BETDAQ: OPPORTUNITY KNOX FOR MURTAGH: Only a few days after getting his trainer’s licence, Johnny Murtagh can land the Irish 2,000 Guineas, with his Fort Knox right in the picture against Magician because of the firm ground. Daqman says that BETDAQ is such good value all round today, you can back both.
CLASSIC BETDAQ: IT’S THE DERBY NEXT WEEK: It’s Derby Day next Saturday and all next week, Daqman will be bringing you news and views – and his ABC specials – on the runners for both Derby and Oaks at Epsom. He’s already backed a 21.0 offer. Big value like that is Classic BETDAQ!
2.55 York It would be unique for a three-year-old to win this (0-10), rare for an older horse (1-10), unusual for a favourite (1-8) and very difficult for a horse carrying more than 9st 1lb (1-10).
That, if all goes according to the stats, leaves us with Jamaican Bolt, Ubetterbegood, Ponty Acclaim, Barnet Fair, Sir Maximilian and Lady Gibraltar.
But we’ve forgotten one thing: single-figure stalls have a lean time; the winners by draw in five straight seasons have been 11, 15, 11, 8 and 13.
That takes out Ubetterbegood and Lady Gibraltar, while Ponty Acclaim and Barnet Fair are friendless in the BETDAQ market this morning, well over the betting weir.
Ancient Cross and Judge N Jury are York specialists; Bogart and Elusivity have run in the pattern; Duke Of Firenze may still be on the upgrade. But this is Jamaican Bolt’s big chance before the ground dries out, and the strong 5lb claimer sways me to him: 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.15 Haydock (Silver Bowl) First or second already in May or ran in a Group race last time out. That’s the recipe for success in this mile handicap.
Hay Dude, Red Avenger and Gabrial’s Kaka all fit that bill but Hay Dude and Red Avenger are best drawn. Gabrial’s Kaka has so far preferred the tight turns of Epsom and Chester.
The ground is the worry for Hay Dude (won only on soft-heavy) – and he can’t beat Pure Excellence on the book – but Red Avenger loves a sound surface. Newstead Abbey has also excelled when it’s wet.
Pure Excellence and Code Of Honour come out similar horses on form but behind Red Avenger on a line through Country Western.
I’ll go low in the handicap to well-drawn lightly-raced sorts (so, theoretically, improvers) who have won on today’s ground: Code Of Honour (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) and Red Avenger (11.0).
3.20 The Curragh (2,000 Guineas) The last 11 winners had all taken part in the Newmarket equivalent finishing (W=won) anywhere from first to 17th as follows: W/14/7/5/4/W/W/5/3/11/17.
This year’s English Guineas had Van Der Neer third and George Vancouver 10th. Van Der Neer was a 20-1 surprise third in a race which saw the demise of his stablemate, Toronado.
A second surprise was to follow when the yard said afterwards that Van Der Neer was on course for the Dante and the Derby but, in fact, he’s stayed at today’s mile.
Ballydoyle has won it after finishing 11th and 17th at Newmarket so we can’t discard George Washington though, seemingly, Joseph O’Brien has. He’s chosen Magician.
In my review of all the Classic trials, I picked out Magician (in the Dee Stakes) for his smooth performance and Libertarian (in the Dante) for his stepping up the learning process and showing stamina to burn for Epsom.
Ryan Moore said after Chester: ‘Magician was impressive, very impressive’ and, when those colts that finished 11th and 17th at Newmarket then won at The Curragh, both were Joseph’s pick, both headed the Ballydoyle team.
Fort Knox may have the touch of the shamrock that Johnny Murtagh has enjoyed as a jockey and now hopes to bring to the training arena.
The form book says he’ll need it. When he won the 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown, he beat a colt who finished 10 lengths behind Ballydoyle’s Battle Of Marengo at Leopardstown. But he’s the miler in today’s field and, as a Dubawi, should love the firm ground.
Magician, Trading Leather and Van Der Neer all appear to want further, and the Dante second would give a huge boost to my 21.0 BETDAQ value about Libertarian for Epsom.
At the same time, I have to concede that Trading Leather represents the Dawn Approach stable, so he’d boost that one, too. But he needs no boost; mine does (then I can play with the overs when he crashes in price!)
My 1-2-3-4 frame positions on today’s surface are 1 Fort Knox, 2 Magician, 3 Trading Leather, 4 Van der Neer. The 103% total probability in the BETDAQ orange was fantastic value.
3.50 Haydock (Temple Stakes) Sole Power looked invincible in the Palace House Stakes. He won this Temple Stakes in 2011 and was second last term, but year on year – six seasons in a row – the winner is drawn in the low seven stalls (7, 3, 1, 4, 5, 2).
Three-year-olds have won twice from six starters and both Reckless Abandon (stall 5) and Morawij (in 2) have low draws.
Reckless Abandon may need some cut in the ground (that could be why he was campaigned in France last season); so, too, Spirit Quartz.
Swiss Spirit was badly drawn over 6f at York this month, looking short of peak on his first run for John Gosden, and inconvenienced by the soft ground.
He beat a previous winner of this, Kingsgate Native, over the minimum on a sound surface in September and I think Gosden can improve this Invincible Spirit four-year-old who will enjoy the ground and has stall 4 over Sole Power’s 11.
Swiss Spirit was a great 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning in an orange list of 102% total probability. In fact, it was value all the way today.
I couldn’t find a race I wanted to bet in that was higher than 108.
Last year ‘s Curragh 2,000 Guineas and Temple Stakes were both 121% Total SP. So stay in the punter-friendly orange.
3.55 The Curragh The final Betdaq-value bet has to be Lily’s Angel (7.4 this morning) who, despite being by a firm-ground stallion, Dark Angel, overcame a soft surface to win a Group 3 at Lingfield.
This is a tougher race but Caponata, Was and Aloof all need further, and none has won on firm, while Chigun will like the ground but has beaten only the Listed winner Thistle Bird the last twice.
DAQMAN’S BETS
VALUE BETS: 4.5pts win DUKE OF FIRENZE and 3.4pts win JAMAICAN BOLT (2.55 York)
VALUE BETS: 4pts win CODE OF HONOUR and 3pts win RED AVENGER (3.15 Haydock)
VALUE BETS: 11pts win MAGICIAN and 3.4pts win FORT KNOX (3.20 The Curragh)
VALUE BETS: 3.8pts win SWISS SPIRIT and 2pts win (stakes saver) SOLE POWER (3.50 Haydock)
VALUE BET: 5pts win (nap) LILY’S ANGEL (3.55 The Curragh)
BET 1.4pts win and place OCEAN LEGEND (4.40 Goodwood)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: Above-average day, so all bets are to 30-point profit target, except at Goodwood (20 points).
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