DERBY DAY DELIGHT OF SIX NAPS IN A ROW: Daqman hit a fabulous six naps in a row yesterday when Gregorian (WON 3-1) romped home in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. His two Oaks bets were second and third, with a place return from The Lark (3rd 16-1 from 21.0 on BETDAQ). His naps sequence is:
Sir John Hawkins WON 2-1
Madam Quilla WON 15-8
Presto Volante WON 6-4
Defendant WON 4-7
Alcaeus WON 1-2
Gregorian WON 3-1
DERBY DAY: MARENGO TANGO WITH OCOVANGO: Today Daqman dares to lay the Derby favourite, Dawn Approach, and reckons the supreme English Classic is between Ireland (Battle Of Marengo) and France (Ocovango).
DERBY DAY: ‘NICK’ YOUR EXPENSES WITH DAQMAN’S BANKER: He’ll be spending layers money if he can first land his short-odds banker in the Coronation Cup. With the winnings he struts his Derby Day BETDAQ stuff with stakes on huge offers: 40.0, 17.5, 17.0, 11.5 and 6.0.
1.35 Epsom There would be nothing like a winner before the big’un to calm the nerves of Elaine Burke (London Citizen), as she tries to keep the Derby trophy at home against nine foreign invaders later this afternoon.
If only London Citizen could perform as well as at Kempton in August: he was beaten only two lengths, giving a whacking 18lb to the 1,000 Guineas fifth, Masarah.
He’s had two runs back and should be as fit as a butcher’s dog but the signs are that his ability only bites when the going is on top, and it’s a question of whether the ground is drying quickly enough.
It’s a similar problem later on for betting in the Dash. I can’t test the going over my cornflakes. It all seems soggy!
John Gosden also needs quicker ground in this opener for Space Ship, the only horse in the race to have shown any class (in the frame behind Telescope) and whose aptitude for tight left-hand bends is already known (won at Chester).
Paul Cole thought a lot of (11.5 offer on BETDAQ) St Paul De Vence – went to Royal Ascot – before the colt became ill. Won in December after his recovery and has had a Spring run back.
2.05 Epsom (Woodcote Stakes) Imagine two top Aussie sprinters taking on the winners of the July Cup and the Haydock Sprint. That’s one way to look at this difficult Listed race.
You have nine previous winners but the form means very little until it’s proven in a hot heat like this and the antecedents I have quoted – representing Ifwecan, Thunder Strike, Riverboat Springs and Neighbother – may reveal the speed and touch of class you are looking for.
What worries me about Thunder Strike is that he has edged right in the final furlong of both his wins; not conducive to Epsom, with its left-hand bend and camber finish. Neighbother’s done the same.
But these are two-year-olds showing different shades of green, and my search for an edge may be misguided. Let’s try another tack.
What you are looking for in form analysis is the magic word ‘quickened’ and I found it in race reports of Cool Bahamian – ‘a big baby’ says his trainer – and Riverboat Springs (6.0 in a 106% orange on BETDAQ), ridden by the in-form William Buick.
There’s a mental kink in Ifwecan but no doubt he’s talented if it doesn’t get the better of him. Money Team and Haikbidiac both need the going on top. Zalzilah is a fast sort.
2.40 Epsom (Coronation Cup) Dunaden has tried two different ways of beating hat-trick-seeker St Nicholas Abbey: from the front in last year’s King George (two lengths down) and from behind at Meydan in March (more than four lengths down).
The rest add up to a Ballydoyle hare setting ‘Nick’ a target (Chamonix), one whose Group-race successes have been in very slow time (Joshua Tree) and a handicapper (Chapter Seven).
That all makes St Nicholas Abbey a banker in a 101% BETDAQ orange this morning, giving me a 40-45% return before he becomes unbackable this afternoon. That should pay for the Derby bets.
3.15 Epsom Dash The draw is usually an edge here – 8 the lowest you want, best is much higher – but not today because those low drawn didn’t have much chance anyway (though, for the future, keep an eye on now-gelded Jiroft, who’s with ace-sprint trainer Robert Cowell).
Very hard to win with (currently 1-17), Captain Dunnne in fact took this race in 2011 but he prefers firm ground. It’s as I was saying about my cornflakes!
It’s a firm-ground prayer, too, for last year’s scorer from stall 2, Stone Of Folca, the only recent winner to have defied a low draw and also the only one in the last decade to win it without a run back.
He’s now in stall 15 and again comes to the race fresh. He’s just a length higher (3lb).
Long Awaited is another who’s best caught fresh but he’s also had bad luck at other times. In autumn runs at Haydock, he was first of all hampered (third on firm), then badly drawn (second on heavy).
The ground is perfect for Duke Of Firenze, who was tightened up when challenging last time out, and has won a similar mad dash at Goodwood, though in a smaller field and with local horse Fair Value (prefers it fast) now on top of him at the weights.
Fair Value is also better off with Long Awaited for anarrow defeat on this course last summer (Stone Of Folca behind).
Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze is a hold-up horse so Ryan Moore will try to come late from stall 19 of 20.
Though Long Awaited and Duke Of Firenze are the ones for the money, the ground is drying all the time and Fair Value is huge at 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning in a 104% list of offers. Come on sun! Do your stuff.
4.00 Epsom (The Derby) Lightly-raced late improvers dominated yesterday’s Oaks: the first three had each run only three times in their lives, two of them making their debut last October, one a bit earlier in August.
This is normal after a bad winter and is the trend in the Derby but, since 2,000 Guineas winners are going for a hat-trick this afternoon after Sea The Stars and Camelot, and since he appears to be taking after his father, New Approach, and since he dazzles with 1111111 by his name, Dawn Approach is white hot.
As I said in my Derby ABC (see Daqman Archive, Thursday), we are today asked to back as Epsom favourite a seven-times-raced precocious two-year-old who started his career in March by winning over 5f.
I said then that I couldn’t find such a one in modern Derby history. I am reminded by Nick Mordin that it last happened in 1957 with Crepello. I can’t play those odds. And I can only lay the odds about Dawn Approach (up to 2.50).
Dawn Approach came into the Guineas off 124. The handicapper was not impressed. Dawn Approach came out of the Guineas on 125.
This also implied that he’d been inflated as a two-year-old. He beat Olympic Glory, Cristoforo Colombo and Leitir Mor, all discredited this season, none finishing in the first three above Group-3 level.
Dawn Approach stamped himself a fine miler by winning the Guineas, but he beat only a 95-rated horse into second place, plus his old mates, Leitir Mor and Cristoforo Colombo (and, incidentally, Mars).
The third home, Van der Neer, was subsequently 14 lengths behind Magician, whom I believe would have won today’s Derby had he not been trained instead for the Irish Guineas only a week ago.
If Dawn Approach flops today, it will be a rare double comedy of Irish errors, since I believe it is also owners’ pressure that has him aimed at this Derby instead of more appropriately, in my opinion, something like the St James’ Palace Stakes which, ironically is Magician’s next stop.
It could be a bad year for stayers, in which case Dawn Approach, a professional and laid-back colt, might win. If there is a good horse, other than the favourite, where is he?
Ruler Of The World Not for me. He was rolling about green at Chester like a beer barrel on a wheelbarrow. Ladbrokes went 14-1 after the race. They are still much shorter Battle Of Marengo and the top firm have drifted Dawn Approach to 7-4.
The stayers in the race are Libertarian and Galileo Rock and I shall place bet those but my order in must be as listed below, with Dawn Approach hanging on in their for about third or fourth:
1 OCOVANGO Ocovango has won the same trial as Pour Moi, the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-cloud, under new Fabre boy star, Pierre-Charles Boudot.
There the resemblance ends, since Ocovango won from the front and it is a question now of whether he will settle and ‘do a Pour Moi’ at Epsom.
Ocovango is by the sire of 12f stars Manduro, Shirocco and Stacelita, and Fabre also has Intello favourite for the French Derby.
Since that one finished in front of our Guineas runner-up in the French version, it is clear that the stable has a strong Classic hand, and Ocovango is best priced at 11.0 at the front of the BETDAQ market this morning (101% total in the orange).
2 BATTLE OF MARENGO Unbeaten on soft ground over 7f and 10f since his August debut, despite a known preference for better ground.
Those he beat the last twice (Sugar Boy 108 and Loch Garman 114) are rated up to 19lb higher than Dawn Approach defeated for second place in the Guineas. The Sugar Boy line puts him clear of Dante winner, Libertarian.
3 DAWN APPROACH If he wins this, he is truly a superstar. Only six horses have done the Guineas-Derby double in 50 years and he’s not bred to do so.
Outsider: LIBERTARIAN I took 21.0 in this column after the Dante and shall have a decent place bet.
Outsider: GALILEO ROCK Massive odds at 42.0. He and Libertarian are guaranteed stayers and good runs from them would cut their St Leger odds.
DAQMAN’S DERBY BETS
VALUE BET: 3pts win OCOVANGO
SAVER: 4.2pts win BATTLE OF MARENGO
PLACE BETS: 09.pts win and 2pts place GALILEO ROCK and 3pts place only LIBERTARIAN
ANTE-POST to win 40: LIBERTARIAN at 21.0
LAY: 10pts DAWN APPROACH
DAQMAN’S EPSOM VALUE BETS
GOLD: 6pts win SPACE SHIP and 2.8pts win ST PAUL DE VENCE (1.35 Epsom)
GOLD: 6pts win RIVERBOAT SPRINGS (2.05 Epsom)
BANKER NAP: 20pts win ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (2.40 Epsom)
BET: 3.5pts win on each DUKE OF FIRENZE and LONG AWAITED, and 1.8pts win and place FAIR VALUE (3.15 Epsom)
BET: 6.5pts win on each DUKE OF CLARENCE and SIRVINO (4.50 Epsom)
DAQ MULTPLES AT OTHER MEETINGS:
1pt doubles Novirak (2.00 Doncaster), Ace Fighter Pilot (2.25 Worcester), Hasheem (2.55 Musselburgh) Ventura Spirit (5.05 Musselburgh), and Call Ahead (7.25 Lingfield)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS Classic action and Daqman’s single bets are raised in stake to win 30 points (though the ante-post bet was win-40). Check out the rules in the Daqman Library.
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