14.0 BETDAQ VALUE IS DAQMAN’S LEADING LIGHT: Daqman’s fourth day at Royal Ascot included a face-saver on Leading Light (WON 5-4) but his coup of the meeting so far was to take 14.0 Kiyoshi (WON 8-1), gambled on scorer in the Albany Stakes.
DUKE IS TOP ROYAL ON THE FINAL DAY: Daqman reckons Duke Of Firenze (nap) can cut through the pack in the Wokingham and rates Shahwardi a 10-point bet in the last, but he’s keen on outsiders at BETDAQ value 23.0, 19.0, 16.0, 14.0, 13.5 this morning.
2.30 Royal Ascot (Chesham Stakes) All previous winners of the Chesham had only one or two runs before the race and, with one exception, they started 7-1 or less in the last decade.
Colts are beating fillies 9-1 and Godolphin, who saddle two of the fillies today, have had a poor Royal Ascot this week.
So, too, Mark Johnston but Mick Channon is in good heart and has almost a winner without a penalty in that his Galileo-sired relative of Bosra Sham, name of Tinga, finished like the proverbial train at Doncaster over 6f as if today’s 7f was needed. But so far it’s nothing race, form wise.
Somewhat’s form may also be misleading: though a 7-lengths winner, that was at Musselburgh and horses behind him had lost five races.
Bunker’s win was a pretty good show but Richard Hannon has been out of the frame with nine of his 10 runners at this Ascot meeting. No winners.
Friendship was third on the soft in Ireland and that may be the ground he needs, since he’s out of a Selkirk mare.
VERDICT: So it is that I’ve ended up with a bit of win and place the Lawman colt Freedom Square (16.0 on BETDAQ this morning), who has taken time to get the hang of things but the change from soft to firm ground last time produced a result that pleased Jim Bolger.
3.05 Royal Ascot (Hardwicke Stakes) Four-year-olds are on a clean sweep in this, with five straight wins. It’s also Sir Michael Stoute’s race. He is 103011 since 2006, notably with his huge improver, Harbinger of three years ago.
But Sir John Hawkwood is more than a stone inferior to his last two winners at this stage, in fact next to bottom of the ratings for this field. Even he can’t squeeze that much improvement.. or can he?
The knight – Sir John not Sir Michael – has already improved 13lb this season and is on a hat-trick after giving away 20lb to the runner-up in his last handicap.
Mount Athos’ Ormonde win at Chester last time produced the best performance of his career and he landed a three-timer last summer.
I prefer Dandino of the six-year-olds: a Group-2 winner in the past, he ran Sea Moon to a head last May in the race before Sea Moon won this very Hardwicke Stakes (Aiken fourth, needs soft).
Ektihaam produced his best rating when beating Thomas Chippendale over CD last month but he enjoyed an uncontested lead and the positions were reversed in April when the pair followed home Tuesday’s Ascot hero, Al Kazeem, at Sandown.
VERDICT: I took 9.6 Sir John Hawkwood as the improver and 11.5 Dandino (clearly saved up for this) to beat the older horses. Saver Mount Athos.
3.45 Royal Ascot (Diamond Jubilee) This is an Ascot race for Ascot horses – 60% of winners had scored on the course before – and is rarely won outside the pattern.
The C and D winners are Dandy Boy, Hawkeyethenoo, Maarek, Sirius Prospect, Society Rock, Intense Pink and Mince.
Dandy Boy is the enigma: he’s behind Society Rock in the pattern but has won the Wokingham and the Victoria Cup over today’s CD. It’s rather like Simenon, not much more than a handicapper running them close in the Gold Cup.
The 2011 ‘diamond’ winner, Society Rock fell out of the stalls last year and you couldn’t do that and catch Black Caviar. It was a better race than today’s, with Moonlight Cloud the runner-up.
Gordon Lord Byron keeps hitting his nose on the Rock, less than three-parts of a length off him in the Haydock Sprint Cup last autumn (Dandy Boy fourth, Hawkeyethenoo behind) and third in the Duke Of York to the same horse in May (Hawkeye behind again).
Lethal Force split the old rivals at York, unfancied in his first race of the season. Gets 7f at Group-2 level and the fast pace may bring him into it.
Since the Aussies’ Sea Siren was six lengths off Black Caviar in April, he has something to find with Society Rock.
Maarek comes into the reckoning only if it rains and Mince is Group-3 level, officially half-a-stone behind Society Rock. I prefer the Irish raiders, Reply and Slade Power, both still only four and second and third at The Curragh only recently.
Slade Power is with Edward Lynam, who took the Kings Stand this week with Sole Power (completing a three-day stable hat-trick).
VERDICT: Lethal Force acts on any going and was too big at 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Slade Power is with the right man to make him a big danger at 13.5. Saver Society Rock, with no Black Caviar this year.
4.25 Royal Ascot (Wokingham Stakes) There is a fairly tight parameter of official ratings in which to find the winners; 96 to 106 contains 10 of them this century.
Nothing wins over the age of seven, yet Hitchens would get a massive boost if the pair he beat at The Curragh recently – Reply and Slade Power – do well in the Diamond Jubilee.
Seven winners in the last decade have come from the low 11 stalls but the ‘bias’ has varied this week according to the pace and the choice made by jockeys.
And five of the first six favourites on BETDAQ this morning were drawn 20 or higher I feel bound to concentrate on that area.
In 20 is Louis The Pious but the handicapper has given him no respite since a hat-trick in the summer of 2011.
Rex Imperator (21), who stays a mile, could play catch-me. York Glory (22) is handicapped to the hilt. Morache Music (23) and Prodigality (27) show their best with cut in the ground. Zero Money (25) does’nt look up to it
Gabriel’s Lad (24).. that’s more like it. Consistent in top handicaps and versatile as to the ground, with Kieren Fallon in the saddle and raced once this season with this as the target.
Gabriel’s Lad beat Khubala (29) last season and is better off at the weights, with Khubala carrying a penalty for winning at Windsor, though both are four-year-olds and may have improved out of sync with that result.
Elusivity (30), fourth in a Group race, may also be thwarted by his penalties, and Duke Of Firenze (31) is my other bet.
He absolutely powered home off a blistering pace at Epsom, races as though 6f will suit and is improving at a rate of knots (10lb in six weeks).
VERDICT: 1 Duke Of Firenze, 2 Gabriel’s Lad, 3 Elusivity.
5.00 Royal Ascot (Duke of Edinburgh Handicap): Hands up anyone who can get ‘Elzie’ right? (Ok, fans meeting in the phone box at 4.55 pm).
David Elsworth doesn’t run his stable for us and I dropped Highland Castle from my horses to follow, only for the thing to score at Newmarket. Still 6lb below his previous winning mark.
The favourite, Rye House, is a big beast, who may not like it to stay firm; he won with cut in the ground and could find the fast surface jarring.
Peter Chapple-Hyam is not a trainer to have much faith in (Peter shrugs shoulders, stage left): though Caravan Rolls On has some fair form, I think the wheels will come off in this company. As for Ustura, Godolphin have been rubbish at Ascot this week.
Stencive was consistent last term and has had just the one prep run for this, at Newmarket. Nice 10.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
But wherever he is Opinion ought to be: he was the moral, third giving weight to the winner in that prep race.
There’s just the worry that his best form has come at 1m 2f and Ryan Moore seems to prefer Rye House.
Lahaag, who started off being a miler, may improve for this second step up in trip – runner up at York last month over 1m 2f – as he is related to a hurdler. John Gosden finally had a top-hat winner with Remote.
VERDICT: I wouldn’t put you off three or four of these but Stencive appeals most. I feel we haven’t seen the best of Silver Lime (23.0) and jockey James Doyle could end the meeting the way he started it.
5.35 Royal Ascot (Queen Alexandra Stakes): Jumps trainers do well in this and the obvious man is Nicky Henderson (Courtesy Call) but I fancy 19.0 offer Mad Moose (Twiston-Davies) who is a home star – ‘nothing can get near him’ – without hurdles in the way, and is as tough as the steak I had after the O2 Leonard Cohen concert last night.
VERDICT: There’s no Simenon for Shawardi to beat this year and, though next best in the market, Chiberta King hasn’t won on the Flat for nearly two years.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 30 points)
BET 2pts win and place FREEDOM SQUARE (2.35 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD and 2.85pts win DANDINO with 2.3pts win (saver) MOUNT ATHOS (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 2.4pts win on each LETHAL FORCE and SLADE POWER, with 1.2pts win (saver) SOCIETY ROCK (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) DUKE OF FIRENZE and 3pts win GABRIEL’S LAD (4.25 Royal Ascot)
BET 3pts win STENCIVE, 1.3pts win and place SILVER LIME and 0.8pts win (stakes saver) RYE HOUSE (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BET 10pts win SHAHWARDI 1.6pts win and place MAD MOOSE (5.35 Royal Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES FINAL-DAY FLING: 3 x 3pts win double and 1pt win treble Freedom Square (2.35 Royal Ascot), Duke Of Firenze (4.25 Royal Ascot) and Mad Moose (5.35 Royal Ascot)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets
directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
