DAQMAN NAP COMES UP SMELLING OF ROSES AGAIN: After a hat-trick of naps and 91 points profit from four winning days up to Wednesday, Daqman bounced back yesterday with the nap on Paris Rose (WON 13-8), who forged clear at Newmarket last night.
SUPER-VALUE BETDAQ ‘DERBY’ DOUBLE: Betdaq markets on the two big races today have Daqman making his selections from the equivalent of trading in 104% (Irish Derby) and 105% (Pitman’s Derby) books, though a Total SP was returned in those races a year ago of 119 and 133%.
2.55 Newmarket (Fred Archer Stakes) Six-year-olds never win this and Harris Tweed has much preferred soft ground in recent seasons, while Lost In The Moment hasn’t won since January 2011.
Cameron Highland has also won only with cut, and Barbican only on AW for the large part of two years.
Altogether, it’s a nothing race, and I’m Your Man may be good enough. Confined to soft ground in France, he is by Cape Cross who gets top-of-the-ground horses and it may be the stable intention to go for the better surface in England.
VERDICT: I’m Your Man is 5.5, as I write, in a 102% list of offers in the orange on BETDAQ but, despite the punter-friendly market, I will decline a stakes saver and go all in. Nap.
3.15 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate) Jumps trainers do well in this and Don McCain sends his last year’s winner, Ile De Re, back for more, along with Jonjo O’Neill’s 2011 scorer, Tominator. Both like cut in the ground.
Though Ile De Re runs off the same mark, Tug Of War (1977-78) is the only Pitman’s Derby winner to land back-to-back success since 1863-4. No horse has carried more than 9st 5lb since 1995, so Jason Hart’s claim looks vital.
On the borderline (9st 6lb) is Ardlui, said by another NH trainer, Alan King, to have missed Royal Ascot for this. He’s won in the grade and on the soft but his times have been slower than average and a very-fast-run race may not play to his strengths.
The ground has gone against Address Unknown, Montaser (withdrawn), Sun Central (withdrawn), Oriental Fox and Mubaraza. In fact, William Haggas (Sun Central) and Richard Fahey (Address Unknown) are particularly upset about the going.
Ratings of 93 or less are nine out of 10, and one of the four-year-old improvers, Arch Villain, Moidore and Mashaari could be called the winner. All like it soft, but all three are badly drawn.
VERDICT: Rain on top of watering has brought Ile De Re (13.5 on BETDAQ this morning) right back into the frame, claimed off so well in at the weights. Jason Hart has a 33% strike rate on the course.
He may have most to fear from Mashaari (16.5), who ran well in the marathon at Royal Ascot, and Arch Villain (17.0), whose dam won over 2m 2f and is related to Derby and Oaks placers; so class and stamina.
3.30 Newmarket (Criterion Stakes) Listening to excuses can have fatal consequences to your wallet: they could get flattened it!
But Ultrasonic is the wrong price at offers of 9.2 on BETDAQ this morning, after missing the break at Lingfield and continually being hampered at Epsom.
Libranno, looking for a hat-trick in this, has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, over the betting weir at 11.0 for one of his calibre.
Richard Hughes prefers Producer, himself short of room in a Group 3 at Epsom, after beating subsequent Queen Anne (Group 1) runner-up, Aljamaheer, at Leicester.
VERDICT: Pastoral Player (holds Red Jazz on Haydock form) and Hawkeyethenoo are all three once-a-year winners these days. Any one of them could have his high day but the Producer form and Ultrasonic potential give me two good bets in a punter-friendly market which permits such indulgence.
6.30 The Curragh (Irish Derby) Does money talk? The sheikhs have swooped to buy Libertarian and Sugar Boy. Does Epsom Derby form hold good? Ruler Of The World has already beaten Libertarian and Galileo Rock.
Or should we simply look for an improver, one with four races or fewer on his CV? That would be (same again) Ruler Of The World, Libertarian and Galileo Rock.
That’s twice we’ve called the same first three home, but will they finish in the same order? That’s the final question.
Ruler Of The World improved dramatically – an official 11lb step forward – when, wearing cheekpieces, he took the Derby with a strong surge, having made his racecourse debut only on April 7.
Libertarian was green behind Sugar Boy in the Sandown Classic Trial, but the steering was corrected to win the Dante and he soared 18lb inside the fortnight between York and Epsom, coming with a long run too late to trouble Ruler Of The World.
Galileo Rock, related to the stout stayer Saddlers Rock, may need further but should be running on well at the finish. Sugar Boy hasn’t been seen since Sandown and will need to have made his improvement at home. Trading Leather had to be dropped to Listed level to win.
VERDICT: I was a lone voice for the unfashionable Libertarian before and after the Dante. He has improved out of all recognition and a further leap forward and the galloping track today should see him finish alongside Ruler Of The World.
But the market says not. BETDAQ gives us the chance to back him at 5.5 and have a stakes saver on ‘Ruler’ at better than evens. You certainly couldn’t move all in on the Ballydoyle colt at that price, after the way horses have improved past each other this Classic season following the long cold-and-wet training conditions.
DAQMAN’S BETS
GOLD VALUE BET: 6.6pts win (nap) I’M YOUR MAN (2.55 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.5pts win ILE DE RE, 2pts win on each ARCH VILLAIN and MASHAARI (3.15 Newcastle)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 8.8pts win PRODUCER and 3.6pts win ULTRASONIC (3.30 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BET: 7pts win LIBERTARIAN and 5.5pts win (stakes saver) RULER OF THE WORLD (6.30 The Curragh)
BET (win 20): 6pts win KINGMAN and 5.5pts win (stakes saver) MAN AMONGST MEN (4.35 Newmarket)
BET (win 20): 2pts win TIGER REIGNS and 1pt win (stakes saver) WHISPERING WARRIOR (4.50 Newcastle)
BET (win 20): 4pts win TOMINTOUL MAGIC (6.55 Lingfield)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS
Singles are backed to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers, unless otherwise stated. A value race is one which is overround less than 110% in the orange list of offers; Gold Value when the selection opposes the favourite in such a race.
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