DAQMAN THE WINNER PRODUCER: Daqman landed three winners yesterday: Producer (WON 11-4), Kingman (WON 11-4) and Whispering Warrior (WON 6-4), with his nap, I’m Your Man (2nd 11-4) leading a yard from the line. He was 11 points up at the end of the day.
TRIPLE HEADER IN THREE COUNTRIES: Today Daqman concentrates on three big races at Chantilly (the Prix Jean Prat), The Curragh (Pretty Polly Stakes) and Uttoxeter (the Summer Cup). He’s looking for the rub of the green today, with a lay at The Curragh.
2.40 Chantilly (Prix Jean Prat) Only the milers Style Vendome and Dawn Approach among the Classic generation have maintained supremacy at the highest level, while the middle-distance colts have been so in and out in the Derby and its trials that two older horses are now ahead of them as favourites for the King George.
Style Vendome has won on most terrain – at Maisons, Chantilly, Longchamp and Deauville – so it will be hard to stop a sixth consecutive victory in the Jean Prat.
His form is rock solid, having beaten French Derby winner, Intelo, and Jersey Stakes winner, Gale Force Ten, in his Guineas.
However, there are some behind him then who will benefit from today’s soft surface, in particular Anodin, the preferred mount of Olivier Peslier that day over Intelo.
Anodin is one of eight horses in this who have run only six times or less, making a short-priced bet on Style Vendome marked with the same red for danger as I thought Ruler Of The World was yesterday (see Archive).
Richard Hannon, trainer of Dick Turpin (2010), one of three English winners of this in the 21st century, saddles Havana Gold.
The Teofilo colt was only a length and a half behind yesterday’s Irish Derby winner, Trading Leather, in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, and beaten only heads and necks when fifth to Style Vendome in the French Guineas.
The last time Anna’s Pearl was in France, he lost the Saint-Cloud Criterium by only half a length on heavy ground but that was in first-time blinkers and, though he’s won since, we have yet to see a repeat of such a level of form.
Andre Fabre goes for a hat-trick in today’s race but San Marino Grey has looked a nearly horse so far, beaten by both Style Vendome and Anodin. However, he’s been running over a mile in slow-run races and today’s stronger pace could play to his strengths.
After yesterday’s Derby turn-around, the UAE-equivalent winner Lines Of Battle looks to have every chance this afternoon, following his second to Trading Leather at The Curragh.
However, Aidan O’Brien has never trained a Jean Prat winner, and Lines Of Battle has always been restricted to a sound surface in European races.
His only attempt at the mud was when he flopped in the Kentucky Derby. Sire and dam both have sound-surface progeny, with only one or two exceptions.
VERDICT: We are having to get used to a different result every time in three-year-old Group 1s. Today the going seems crucial and one player who is always thereabouts, San Marino Grey, has the right connections and the credentials on the ground.
I was a lone voice tipping Style Vendome for the French Guineas. I will have a saver on him today and, if he wins, hope to see a magic-mile showdown with Dawn Approach.
3.35 The Curragh (Pretty Polly Stakes) It’s 9-8 to three-year-olds over four-year-olds in the last 20 years. Aidan O’Brien’s recent record in this race is 100414 since 2007, and nothing this century before that.
Was is preferred by Joseph O’Brien and compares favourably with Ballydoyle’s previous winners this century, Pepping Fawn and Misty For Me. Though Say is lightly raced and could improve, Was won last year’s Epsom Oaks, beating today’s rival, Shirocco Star, a neck.
Both have had the one run this year but Was appeals as the true 10-furlong animal who will be hard to beat, given the pace she needs.
If Rehn’s Nest ran to her Irish 1,000 Guineas second to Just The Judge, she’d have better claims than Jim Bolger’s winner, Alexander Goldrun (2005-6), who went on to back-to-back wins.
In this topsy-turvy Classic season, Rehn’s Nest then ran a stinker in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, 15th when Just The Judge was third.
She needs to bounce back here, but 14.0 on BETDAQ contains the risk, with the firm ground in her favour.
We’ve been trying to find the lightly-raced improver as the Classic generation horses have beaten each other. Maybe Alive Alive Oh is the one, from a yard that does well with fillies.
But her breeding would have to produce something unique: her sire, Duke Of Marmalade, hasn’t done much at stud – no Group winners – and the dam’s side is Listed level at best. A lay at up to 3.0 (no more) in the green.
VERDICT: Last year’s Epsom Oaks winner, Was (5.5 on BETDAQ), versus this year’s Irish Guineas runner-up Rehn’s Nest (wrong at 17.5). Both have to bounce back but the ground has gone against much of the opposition.
3.45 Uttoxeter (Summer Cup) This race was an instant hit when innovated last year, so second time round has more runners, double the prizemoney to the winner, and a classier field (rated 9lb higher).
Jonjo O’Neill, who won the Northumberland Plate yesterday with Tominator, wants this one badly, with three runners spaced strategically down the handicap, over an 18lb spread.
Paul Nicholls has two, one high up, one near the bottom of the handicap – in fact, with a featherweight, under a claimer – but the ground may have the final say.
O’Neill’s Galaxy Rock and Northern hope, Weird Al, are the only previous winners at this level, but both need to bounce back, the one with only one win in more than two years, the other seemingly out of love with the game, though both go well fresh.
Only Danamix, Lifer Of A Luso, Lost Glory, Prince Tom, Problema Tic and Pure Faith have ever won on firmish ground.
Lost Glory looks the one to beat under Tony McCoy, with five wins out of six, ignoring a coconut shy at the Grand National. He’s shot 16lb up the chase rationgs but is still only eight.
Problema Tic, aged seven, returned to form on firm ground recently and was capable of back-to-back wins as a novice.
Victrix Gale is bred to stay until tea-time, by Presenting out of a Strong Gale mare, and is gifted with 10st., surely a standout on Irish form over Poineau De Re, whose rating has hit the roof.
Deaireadh Re has so far been only class 4 as a chaser, but has a featherweight and was a Graded hurdler.
VERDICT: My short list is Deireadh Re, Lost Glory, Problema Tic and Victrix Gale. Tony Martin could well have pinched it, Victrix Gale sneaking in off the minimum weight, but Deireadh Re also has nowt to carry and may not look back after a breathing operation.
Lost Glory and Problema Tic will find any flaws in the lightweights.
I shall take Victrix Gale (8.8) and Deireadh Re (16.5) fearing Problema Tic (14.5) most and with a saver on Lost Glory.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 2pts win SAN MARINO GREY and 2pts win (stakes saver) STYLE VENDOME (2.40 Chantilly)
BET 5pts win ORBISON (2.50 Windsor)
BET 1.5pts win and place WOODEN KING (3.30 Salisbury)
LAY to win 10pts ALIVE ALIVE OH, and GOLD VALUE BETS (to win 30pts) 6.6pts win WAS, and 1.8pts win and place REHN’S NEST (3.35 The Curragh)
BET (to win 30pts) 3.8pts win VICTRIX GALE, 2.2pts win PROBLEMA TIC and 1.9pts win DEIREADH RE, with 1pt win (stakes saver) LOST GLORY (3.45 Uttoxeter)
BET 2.2pts win THATCHIT (3.55 Windsor)
BET 0.8pts win and place HOMER RUN, and 1pt win (stakes saver) ERMERALD GLADE (4.20 Uttoxeter)
BET 4.2pts win (nap) VENUE (5.10 Salisbury)
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