NOW IT’S THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Sennockian Star (WON 5-2) and CAPELLA’S SONG (stakes saver, WON evens) gave Daqman his third winning day on the trot yesterday.
52 POINTS PROFIT SINCE SATURDAY: His six winners – two a day since Saturday, including 10-1 and 9-2 – have brought in 52 points profit.
Roger Charlton’s actually top of the trainers’ list right now. That’s Bill down the betting shop, arguing the case for Dawn of Empire (7.30) at Kempton tonight under jockey-find-of-the-season James Doyle.
Charlton is, indeed, the ‘In Form’ number-one in the ‘Trainerspot’ table published by the Racing Post, one of the trade-paper’s best innovations. ‘Yeh, 90%!’ beams Bill.
But that 90% means only that Charlton’s horses are running to within 10% of their ratings; as near as dammit, he’s getting the best out of them that he possibly can.
However, the best is not good enough, in that only 20% of them (two wins from 10 runners) have actually won their races in the last fortnight.
And, in fact, he’s been missing strike badly, with three out of four Charlton-trained favourites beaten and seven in the frame without winning (3334233) in those two weeks.
Second in the table, Andrew Hollinshead, has landed 33% of his runners and, even better, the third stable on the list, bearing the name of Marjorie Fife, is 3-5 (a 60% success rate), overall getting an 80% figure RTF (running to form).
Make a beeline then for Madge’s only runner of the day, a winner last time out? Just The Tonic (4.30 Beverley) has Bill all excited.
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there) this time the problem is in that very ‘win last time out’. Just The Tonic, runner-up in this event in 2011, has just never put two races together before.
The mare’s form after a win is 0020 and it’s too often the case that horses in class 5 and 6 simply don’t keep their condition, however much their trainer is ‘in form’ or has his – or her – horses ‘running to form.’
The one that catches my eye is Last Destination (10.0 on BETDAQ this morning), a winner on the course in the last three summers at around this time (June 2010, July 2011 and July 2012) and 5lb and 7lb lower than for the two which were in handicaps.
Eeny Mac is another Beverley specialist but is also an ever-present, having run 10 of his last 11 starts on the course. He hasn’t been in the same form as when completing a hat-trick in this last year.
But he returned to the frame last time when just run out of it, trying to make all, and will be dangerous if allowed to dictate.
Perhaps a bigger threat to Last Destination, who had Eeny Mac well behind over CD last month, is Relight My Fire, a three-year-old just struck form, including two decent runs at Beverley.
Dame Nellie Melba (3.30) is another who could take advantage of the three-year-old weight-for-age allowances, handicapping for the first time today.
Doesn’t have to be much to beat the next two in the betting, Robert The Painter, a proper bridesmaid, runner-up in five of his last eight starts, and Kalk Bay, who has to give lumps of weight away, which you wouldn’t think will suit one described at Carlisle last month as ‘having a breathing problem.’
Though there are four meetings today, Paul Hanagan has just one ride: Lamusawama (8.30 Kempton Park), a huge 8.0 on BETDAQ considering his course-winning credentials.
It’s 13-2 bar one, with the expectation that Pomology will follow up her Windsor win. But it’s filly against a colt and I see her only as a handy stakes saver at around even money.
Back to Roger Charlton, and I’m opposing his Tartary (4.15 Bath), seemingly gone backwards since an AW win last year. It’s equally hard to see soft-ground winner, Vincentti, taking this on the firm.
Such a surface is what Alcando (6.0 on BETDAQ) has been waiting for. He’s unbeaten in two starts at Bath, including one over CD on near-concrete.
The favourite Art Of Racing comes from a series of slow-run affairs and, with the BETDAQ offers adding up to only 107%, Alcando is a Special bet, and Gold Value to boot. Roger and out, Bill!
DAQMAN’S BETS: (Each bet to win 20 points. Just one winner, except stakes savers, would cover the rest of the bets to within 60p)
BET 10pts win (nap) DAME NELLIE MELBA (3.30 Beverley)
GOLD VALUE BET 4pts win (Special bet) ALCANDO (4.15 Bath)
BET 2.2pts win LAST DESTINATION and 1pt win (stakes saver) RELIGHT MY FIRE (4.30 Beverley)
BET 2.8pts win on each LAMUSAWAMA and (stakes saver) POMOLOGY (8.30 Kempton)
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