7-1 SHAKER AS DAQMAN LANDS 19 WINS IN FOUR DAYS: There were four more winners for Daqman yesterday, including Hippy Hippy Shake (WON 7-1), bringing his total to 19 in four days. His tally is Tuesday 4, Wednesday 4, Thursday 7 and Friday 4.
80-WINNERS-A-MONTH POTENTIAL: With his score 39 in the last fortnight’s racing, he could be on target for more than 80 winners a month during the heavy summer mid-week calendar. It was a break-even day yesterday (to the nearest 10p), so that his profit remains at 102 points in the four days.
KING GEORGE BONUS: TRADING DEAD-ON 100%: Betdaq offers were trading 100%, returning as much as is bet, on a level playing-field in the orange this morning. And Daqman reckons the favourite will get leathered!
I’m taking on the favourite again. I got Mars ’beat’ earlier this week. Now for Cirrus Des Aigles. It was 6.4 bar one in a 100% list of offers for the King George in the BETDAQ orange this morning, which makes for value in the opposition.
Check out my ABC guide on the race in the Daqman archive (Tuesday column), found with a light touch of the cursor on the contents bar. Now for the day in detail:
2.05 Ascot (Princess Margaret Stakes) The same ‘value beyond the favourite’ applies to the opener: 7.0 bar Wind Fire simply ain’t right at this time in the two-year-olds’ season.
The three fillies around Wind Fire (third) in the first four to finish in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot have all been beaten since, and others behind have won only minor races.
But I was a bit surprised to see Richard Hughes on the exposed Fig Roll (six runs already). There isn’t much between Queen Catrine and Fig Roll on their Group-2 third and fourth at Newmarket, except that Olivier Peslier is now booked for Catrine.
It implies that the race is not all that strong, so I will have a bit each way that Along Again can improve at least into a place. She’s inexperienced but I certainly think she’ll go past this little lot in the longer term.
2.20 York This is usually won from high in the handicap (the last three winners scored off 9st 8lb or higher), and looks to be heading that way again since, of those bar the older pair, Smarty Socks and Webbow, only Navajo Chief and Sirius Prospect have any pretensions of being able to win above class 3.
The snag for punters is that the one is stepping up a furlong from his normal winning trip, the other dropping back a furlong, and both prefer genuinely good ground or a bit of cut. Tricky one. Watch the BETDAQ market.
2.40 Ascot Cape Peron, luckless fifth in the Britannia, is reckoned a Group horse in a handicap but will have to be, burdened with 9st 7lb, giving weight all round.
Tarikhi, second in front of him at Ascot, has been beaten since but that was two furlongs further. Yarroom has a chance if reproducing his April run – if something has not gone awry; we haven’t seen him since – and he is a Cape Cross, so suited by today’s ground.
Ryan Moore has deserted Defendant in favour of Tamayuz Star, down the field in the Jersey Stakes, but doesn’t seem too keen on that one either. However, a line through You Da One has him in front of Intrigo.
With Yarroom and Tamayuz Star lonely dogs, over the betting weir at 22.0 and 24.0, and Intrigo second in the market, you are back to the match: Cape Peron (5.3 on BETDAQ this morning) versus Tarikhi (9.2). In a 105% list in the orange, I backed both.
2.55 York Stakes Mukhadram is only a pound or two off Al Kazeem on Ascot and Sandown form in the last five weeks and he’ll be hard to catch, if adopting his usual front-running role.
But, strictly, he has won only a Group-3 and Grandeur, twice a Grade-2 winner on firm, is therefore ‘wrong’ at 8.6 this morning (102% ‘book’), with conditions in his favour.
3.15 Ascot (International) Punters just can’t get this one right, with winners at 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, 25-1 and 40-1 in the last five seasons. But why?
Well, in the last three years, they’ve been making horses favourite from above 9st in the handicap. They’ve won only one out of seven from that high up.
The Confessor (stall 14), Sacrosanctus (15), Don’t Call Me (17), Queensberry Rules (22), Glen Moss (24), Compton (28) and Galician (29) all show front-running tendencies in their recent form, suggesting that the pace is middle-to-high.
Look no further for an improver who is a held-up horse and you have Ashaadd (offered at 13.5). Three-year-olds find it hard to win (1-27) but this is a horse of great determination who has come through from bad positions to win his races and is ahead of the handicapper.
Hefner looks ‘chucked in’ on potential of form but 44.0 on BETDAQ this morning suggests there’s not a penny for him and as a stable cast-off (three times!) I can’t support him.
You need some young lungs to win this (six-year–olds plus are 0-67), and I think back-to-form Lightning Cloud (18.5) and Redvers (14.0), who will be suited by a fast-run race, are the alternatives on the other side of the track.
3.50 Ascot (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes) It’s against all known form in racing and the nature of the horse himself for a seven-year-old to lead the herd when young pretenders aged three and four are bidding for his crown.
Only Swain (aged six when he won his second King George in 1997) among the old boys has beaten the youngsters and, in fact, only five five-year-olds, including Swain, have done it in the entire history of the race since 1951.
So it is that I expect the improvers Novellist, Hillstar and Trading Leather to beat Cirrus Des Aigles, despite his impressive record in the past.
Past is past. If not, that trio represent the decline of racing form in the past two seasons. Yes, it’s possibly a bad Classic year this year but for all three to ‘get stuffed’ is highly unlikely.
Unfortunately, to back all three, I shall be taking overall odds lower than Cirrus Des Aigles, but a spot-on 100% list in the BETDAQ orange says I can certainly back two of them.
Hillstar has taken a similar route to another second-season winner of this, Nathaniel, and Trading Leather has come out through his Irish Derby victory as a solid, straightfoprward Classic colt in a year when so many lack substance and genuine quality in both form and manner of racing.
Anyway, I have to take Trading Leather (6.8 on BETDAQ as I write) – on a line through Battle Of Marengo – though greatly fearing Sir Michael Stoute’s ability to improve Hillstar (next year’s winner?)
And I must back Novellist (7.2), as I’ve followed him on the Danedream route and he gives us a rare chance to see Johnny Murtagh.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each, except the lay and the multiples). Value is where a race is overround below 110%.. Gold Value where Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
GOLD VALUE BET 4.2pts win and place ALONG AGAIN (2.05 Ascot)
VALUE BET 6.9pts win CAPE PERON and 3.6pts win TARIKHI (2.40 Ascot)
VALUE BET 8.5pts win MAGISTRAL (2.45 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BET 4.1pts win (nap) GRANDEUR (2.55 York)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.4pts win ASHAADD, 2.3pts win REDVERS and 1.7pts win LIGHTNING CLOUD (3.15 Ascot)
GOLD VALUE BET: 3.6pts win BACCARAT (3.30 York)
LAY 10pts CIRRUS DES AIGLES and GOLD VALUE BET: 5.1pts win TRADING LEATHER and 4.8pts win NOVELLIST (3.50 Ascot)
BET 7.8pts win STRESA and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) STAR PEARL (5.05 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Magistral (2.45 Newmarket) and Grandeur (2.55 York) with Stresa and Star Pearl (5.05 Newmarket)
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