FIVE FABULOUS LAYS IN A ROW: When he doesn’t pick winners, Daqman makes a profit picking losers! He yesterday completed a fabulous five-timer of lays in three days over the weekend to swell his column’s BETDAQ betting bank by 50 points. Why ‘fabulous’? Because every one was hot favourite. Here they are:
• Aug 23 SIMENON (2nd 15-8 favourite): ‘Simenon’s poor York form puts me off.’ Profit 10pts.
• Aug 23 PAVLOSK (2nd 6-4 favourite): ‘Pavlosk would prefer softer ground.’ Profit 10pts.
• Aug 24 PARBOLD (3rd 11-4 favourite): ‘Sire has had only one winner on soft.’ Profit 10pts.
• Aug 25 CIRRUS DES AIGLES (unplaced 2-1 favourite): ‘Third consecutive defeat as favourite’. Profit 10pts.
• Aug 25 ASTONISHING (2nd 9-4 favourite): ‘High draw.’ Profit 10pts.
TODAY: EIGHT BANK HOLIDAY MEETINGS: From Chepstow to Cartmel, Flat to jumps, come rain come shine, there are eight Bank Holiday meetings spread 238 miles apart from top to bottom of the map, Cumbria to Monmouthshire. BETDAQ has the value offers. Daqman checks them out.
BANGOR Though, percentage-wise, Richard Johnson is the leading rider on the track, Noel Fehily is currently jumping out of his skin, with six recent winners for a near-50% strike rate. They clash in the two handicap hurdles.
Yazdi (2.50 Fehily) needs to improve a ton but Piper Hill (6.4 on BETDAQ as I write) looks poised to get involved in this, his first handicap, with Johnson taking over from an apprentice.
Lookout Mountain may need mud and Polarbrook is the saver, by far the most consistent in the race but reverting to hurdles from chasing.
Johnson and Fehily meet a second time, with Johnson again getting my vote on Quinsman (4.35). Course-and-distance winner, back to his trip, back on a fair mark. Yet 6.0, with Marmas the stakes saver.
CARTMEL Soul Magic (3.30), six times a course-and-distance winner, goes for a hat-trick in the Win-A-Mini Chase.
You can almost get the entire field in one mini but there are two other last-time winners, Pete and The Paddy Premium, to make the market, thankyou.
Jamie Moore travels up for one chance, on Peter Bowen’s Ballybough Gorta (4.05), with Bowen riding high on 44 winners, second only to Jonjo O’Neill at the top of the NH-trainers’ table.
Front-runner Epee Celeste looks the danger in his attempt at back-to-back wins off 9lb lower than last year – and claimed off – since Royale Knight failed to catch Ballybough Gorta at the last meeting.
CHEPSTOW Here’s Richard Hughes with seven rides, starting off for Richard Hannon on Filosofo (2.05), who has form-franked Ghaawy to beat, and Manderley (2.40), a grey filly I expected to see in nurseries.
But, in fact, Landau (5.00) is the first-time handicapper for Hughes, and Deliberation (6.05) makes a solo 450-mile round trip from North Yorkshire.
Ron Harris goes for a hat-trick in this sprint. He’s booked Nunthorpe winning jockey Steve Drowne for CD-winner Lady Mango, who is on a good mark to return to form after a run back at Ffos Las.
The 16.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning were massive. Deliberation is clear at the front of the market, suggesting a must saver.
EPSOM Here’s Hughsie’s nemesis, Ryan Moore. He takes over a Hannon ride from Hughes in the opener but it’s his first-time mount on Jedward (3.05 at 6.0) for the Kevin Ryan yard that attracts my attention.
Ryan landed two sprint wins on Saturday at York, including the Gimcrack, and just missed another when Hamza was pipped at The Curragh on the same day.
Jedward, himself, narrowly missed out on two prizes in June, beaten less than a length overall, which cost him a 7lb rise but he’s shed a few pounds since and, a winner on soft ground, has an edge on the field for this Great Surrey Handicap.
Fair Value was second in this race last year on his local course but his turf wins have come on firm ground, as with one of the likely pacesetters, Swan Song.
Jiroft (offers of 4.7) is another who likes to lead and he’s got his ground today for the first time since a good run at this level at Newcastle in June.
I’m opposing Breaking The Bank (4.50) as a Windsor-only winner upped two grades, who has so far won only on firm ground, has been useless on a left-handed track (50% win-and-place going right-handed) and who is unlikely to get his own way up front this time.
The grey Persepolis also made the running under Ryan Moore at Sandown and the jockey knows all about him from Windsor in July.
HUNTINGDON Could New Year’s Eve (4.55) fall on August Bank Holiday? I won’t wish it on him. But I’ll have my Huntingdon pound on Heezagrey (5.30), going for back-to-back wins in in the Sleep Easy Handicap Hurdle off the same mark.
NEWCASTLE More softish ground at Newcastle, which features the Blaydon race nursery (4.00), with last-time winners for a Sea The Stars colt, Stars Over The Sea, and a Dylan Thomas, Braidley.
I can’t fancy the Richard Fahey pair, new Street and Imshivala, with the stable treading water at the moment, 0-28 in the last seven days.
RIPON Yorkshire steals the show in the North with the Ripon Rowels (4.10), still softish ground remember. Osteopathic Remedy (11.0 on BETDAQ this morning) tries for his third win in the race, with his success last year on good to soft but off a 5lb lower mark.
However, the remedy is Connor Beasley, boy rider of the moment, claiming the 5lb back and the partnership seem well drawn in gate 2.
Extremes of draw seem to win it, high or very low (three wins for stalls 1 and 2 in the five renewals with double-figure fields).
That man Kevin Ryan has bagged the 1 draw with CD-winner Ardmay but with Neil Callan riding another from the yard, Trail Blaze (stall 3).
Trail Blaze would win it on Ascot form in July, and Callan is on a high after winning the Gimcrack on Astaire for Ryan and following up in a Group 3 at Deauville yesterday on Fire Ship for William Knight.
Also claimed off are Captain Bertie, who has his ground – and the highest stall of all in 14 – and Robert The Painter, who doesn’t. Nor does The Rectifier.
Three-year-olds can win it (2003, 2004, 2009) and obviously Halfaguina (2-2 for Adam Kirby) is the one unexposed in this field, though I’m not convinced he rates as favourite.
WARWICK Frankie Dettori has two contrasting rides. He is on the enigma Es Que Love (3.55), having outing number 18 this year, placed in top-quality handicaps (holds Highland Colori and Set The Trend) yet with his only win on AW at Kempton.
I’m going for the three-year-old, Annunciation, who won a Shergar Cup race as if needing an extra furlong, and the ground looks right.
The contrasting ride for Dettori, with one-sixth of the runs all his life than Es Que Love in eight months, is Captain Bob (3.20).
Captain Bob, After The Goldrush, Barbary and Meteoroid are the only ones entered for quality juvenile races after this date. In the belief that Meteroid already needs further, I’m napping Captain Bob. They are the only pair seriously backed.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.7pts win PIPER HILL and 2pts win (stakes saver) POLARBROOK (2.50 Bangor)
BET 13pts win (nap) CAPTAIN BOB (3.20 Warwick)
BET 5.4pts win JIROFT and 4pts win JEDWARD (3.05 Epsom)
BET 10pts win SOUL MAGIC (3.30 Cartmel)
BET 5.4pts win ANNUNCIATION (3.55 Warwick)
BET 7.8pts win STARS OVER THE SEA and 5.4pts win BRAIDLEY (4.00 Newcastle)
BET 8pts win BALLYBOUGH GORTA and 3.5pts win EPEE CELESTE (4.05 Cartmel)
BET 2pts win OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY and 1pt win and polace CAPTAIN BERTIE, with 1pt win (stakes saver) HAAFAGUINEA (4.10 Ripon)
BET 3.3pts win QUINSMAN and 1pt win (stakes saver) MARMAS (4.35 Bangor)
LAY 10pts BREAKING THE BANK and BET 7.5pts win PERSEPOLIS (4.50 Epsom)
BET 7.8pts win HEEZAGREY (5.30 Huntingdon)
BET 1.3pts win and place LADY MANGO and 1pt win (stakes saver) DELIBERATION (6.05 Chepstow)
DAQ MULTIPLES COINCIDENCE DOUBLE: 1pt win Captain Bob (3.20 Warwick) with Captain Bertie (4.10 Ripon)
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