11-2 WINNER ON THE NEVER-NEVER: Daqman so arranged his bets yesterday that one winner at his 20-points target would cover all other stakes. That winner was Never To Be (WON 11-2 SP from 9.0 on BETDAQ). Break even!
‘The law of averages’ lets many a punter down. The idea that, after 10 times ‘heads’, the next throw is bound to come down ‘tails’ is one of the betting fallacies on which bookmakers profit. It’s still 50-50.
There was a horse the other day, 15 times in the frame without winning from 17 starts. ‘He’s got to win soon,’ opines Bill down the betting shop. No, he hasn’t (he doesn’t want to win or doesn’t have the pace, or both). And he won’t even be decent odds a place.
But there are occasions when a situation I will usually bet on is repeated, so that there are two of the same strong possibilities on the same day. In today’s case – at Wolverhampton tonight – they’re on the same card.
My cunning plan in these circumstances (hoping we don’t do a Baldrick) is to back the first one. If it wins, well and good. If it loses, back the second one to my usual win-20 stakes but adding in the loss on the first bet.
Theoretically, then, I profit by 20 whichever one wins. I usually add a small double, just in case I’ve been so cunning they’ve both won!
So tonight we’re backing You Look So Good (8.10), if lose Muthafar (9.10). Both are first time in a handicap for top trainers, both with high strike-rates in such a situation. I looked for 3.5 about each horse.
So then I can bet 8 points win You Look So Good, if lose 11.2 points win Muthafar, plus a point win double. I won’t ‘look so good’ if both go down. So I must add this gambit into my overall strategy which, like yesterday, is: not to lose!
At this time of year, when the Flat season is tailing off, and the jumps season proper is just starting, you have a double headache, particularly with both disciplines full of races for maidens and novices.
Unless, that is, you can spot a master trainer who exploits such races. But that’s another story. For tomorrow (so watch this space).
Meanwhile, when you spot those horses with a massive place sequence (like 20222220 Key To The West at Southwell today, 3.05 race) keep an eye open for any change of circumstance.
One change would be the wearing of aids of some kind (blinkers, cheekpieces etc). Another would be a drop in class. A third would be a change of stables, which can often freshen up a horse, even change his attitude.
So be warned that Key To The West, the official top rating, has changed yards, changed jockeys and dropped in class from Uttoxeter (level 3 handicap) and then Ascot. Yes, I know last time out was the same class, but I also count the difference in quality between tracks, in this case Ascot to Southwell, albeit from maiden to a race of winners.
Another factor today is the ground. The one-paced Key To The West is unlikely to get the rain he needs to equalize his chances with the more sprightly turn-of-foot types.
Deep Trouble will probably have him, and several others, well strung out, with his front-running style. He, too, has a sequence of seconds to his name (2222) but only two of those were over hurdles; the two others were in National Hunt Flat races (bumpers).
Man Of Steel has won only in bumpers, and he finished 20 lengths off the winner in his first hurdles race. Parsnip Pete’s back-to-back wins were in chases. We don’t know much about Comeback Colin but it’s a worry that they’re claiming off him first time back.
If there’s ever a place for a front-runner it’s the left-hand oval at Southwell and I reckon Deep Trouble (3.2 on BETDAQ as I write) is again likely to get a lead which one-paced placers and chasers will find hard to claw back.
A P McCoy has some eye-catching rides at Carlisle. Pendra (2.20) was Graded level over hurdles and trainer Charlie Longsdon has been in excellent form. Pendra would get him off the 13 mark in 14 days.
Upswing (2.55), one of four J P McManus mounts for McCoy, returns to the scene of his CD win, with his nearest rival in the morning BETDAQ market a 10-race maiden, Yorkist.
The if-lose system on the two McCoy mounts would cost big points here, and my margin would be too low, so my twist on it this time is to back Upswing at 3.4, and put the much-shorter Pendra in doubles with both You Look So Good and Muthafar at Wolverhampton.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Single stakes to win 20 points)
BET 12pts win (nap) UPSWING (2.55 Carlisle)
BET 9pts win DEEP TROUBLE (3.05 Southwell)
BET 8pts win YOU LOOK SO GOOD (8.10 Wolverhampton), if lose 11.2pts win MUTHAFAR (9.10 Wolverhampton).
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble PENDRA (2.20 Carlisle), YOU LOOK SO GOOD (8.10 Wolverhampton) and MUTHAFAR (9.10 Wolverhampton).
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