Two major storylines have emerged in the days since New England and Seattle won their respective conference championship games: the first, and perhaps the most relevant to bettors, was the line move. Las Vegas sportsbooks opened Super Bowl XLIX at Seattle -2, but an immediate wave of Patriots money shifted the line to Pick ’em, where it currently sits at sportsbooks around the world (including BETDAQ). This was an unsurprising development coming off a Championship Sunday that had seen New England roll to a 45-7 win over Indianapolis while Seattle nearly lost to Green Bay.
The second storyline that has dominated media discourse over the past few days has come to be known as “DeflateGate”, and if you’ve consumed any NFL news this week you’ve undoubtedly stumbled upon some analysis of the latest cheating-related scandal to hit Belichick’s Pats. Remember, this is the same team that was severely penalized by the NFL a few years ago for filming opposing teams’ practices in what is now known as “SpyGate”. This time around the charges are arguably more serious, as 11 of the 12 footballs that the Patriots provided for use in last week’s AFC Championship game were found to be 2 psi (pounds per square inch) deflated. A deflated football, of course, is easier to throw and catch, especially when the weather is nasty (as it was in Foxborough last Sunday night).
This has prompted a veritable firestorm of media coverage/backlash, with many essentially accusing both Bill Belichick and Tom Brady of cheating. The situation escalated to the point where Brady held a previously unscheduled press conference on Thursday afternoon to discuss the issue. Predictably, he denied all involvement, as did Belichick the previous day. Many current and former players have chimed in with their thoughts, and the general consensus seems to be that there’s just no way Tom Brady wouldn’t notice if the footballs were 2 pounds deflated. The implication, of course, is obvious, and the situation has all the makings of the dreaded “D” word: Distraction. In the minds of NFL coaches and front office types, nothing can derail a team quicker than an unwanted distraction.
Interestingly, though, DeflateGate has not dampened bettors’ enthusiasm for the New England side. The Pats are still a popular play at sportsbooks in Vegas and around the world, a fact that is being trumpeted by the bookmakers themselves. This week a spokesman for Pinnacle revealed that over 80% of the moneyline bets they’ve taken have been on New England, with DeflateGate having no obvious influence on betting patterns. Similar reports have come out of Vegas, where one popular book has supposedly taken 6 times more money on New England than they have on Seattle.
Everyone’s talking about New England. Everyone’s betting on New England. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have won 11 of their past 12 games and may have the greatest defense in NFL history. In last year’s Super Bowl they faced another heavily-hyped team with a future Hall of Fame quarterback: the Denver Broncos, who had set a new NFL record for most points scored in a single season. Much like this year, the Seahawks opened as favorites in that game before a wave of Denver money moved the line considerably. Public enthusiasm for the Denver side remained strong right up until kickoff, at which point it quickly became clear that Seattle was the superior team. The Seahawks embarrassed the Broncos 43-8, validating the old “defense wins championships” maxim, and they followed up that performance by leading the league in both yards allowed and points allowed again this season. Their offense isn’t too shabby either, as they led the NFL in rushing and scored 24 points or more eleven times.
In other words, bettors would be wise to remember that the Seahawks, though seemingly ignored over the past few days, will strive to steal the spotlight on Super Bowl Sunday, just as they did last year. They’re a championship team with a mean streak, and I’m sure they’d like nothing more than to embarrass “Golden Boy” Brady in front of the football-watching world. You don’t think they’ve heard about all the money on the New England side and the corresponding line move? You don’t think they’re sick of hearing about the Patriots every time they turn on a television? I assure you, they’re well aware of what’s been going on.
You often hear athletes play the ‘disrespect’ card– “we get no respect”, etc.– and I’m sure there’s been plenty of that circulating in the Seattle locker room. Will that make any difference when these teams meet on the field in nine days? This is the Super Bowl, after all, so I doubt there will be any motivation issues on either side. Still, the Seahawks seem like an especially prideful bunch and they’ve certainly proven their mettle in the toughest of situations over the past couple of years. All of these eager Patriots bettors who have flooded the market over the past few days may be well-intentioned, and they may come out on top in the end, but the same could’ve been said of Custer’s men, too. And I may join their ranks, but I won’t do so without great trepidation. Sleep on the Seahawks at your own peril.
