ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL: The PGA Tour makes its annual stop at Bay Hill this week for an event that has become an homage to the King– the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Launched as the Florida Citrus Open some 50 years ago, Palmer has been personally involved since 1979 and under his guidance the tournament has evolved into one of the premier stops on the Florida Swing.

While Bay Hill itself has undergone some renovations over the past few years, it’s still a familiar track to most of the competitors and “course history” is critical this week– there are players with great records in this tournament and players with very poor records, and very few in-betweens. For instance, this event has produced a staggering SEVEN multiple-time champions in its history, with the latest being Florida native Matt Every, an otherwise unremarkable player who triumphed here in both 2014 and 2015. Last year’s performance was especially instructive in regards to Bay Hill’s “horses for courses” nature, as Every was really struggling heading into the week and was priced at better than 500/1 at BETDAQ despite being the defending champ. He breezed around in 19-under, hoisted the trophy once again, and then promptly missed the cut in 12 of his next 19 events, never finishing higher than 18th in that span. In other words, Every is living proof that at a place like Bay Hill, it’s wise to prioritize “course form” over “current form.”

We nearly struck gold last week with Steve Stricker, who was recommended at 160.0 and was tied for the lead (and trading at 11.5!) heading into Sunday. Stricker faded a bit, though, and both of our other selections finished outside the top-20. Let’s hope for a better result this week…

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Henrik Stenson (14.5)- The weather is warming up and Stenson seems to be finding his footing, as he followed a solid showing at the WGC-Cadillac Championship with an 11th-place finish at the Valspar last week. He’s now finished 28th or better in each of his last six worldwide starts and 11th or better in five of them, so there shouldn’t be any concern about the state of his game. And just one look at Stenson’s record at Bay Hill should tell us all we need to know about his expectations this week– 7-for-7 made cuts, T15-T8-T5-2 in his last four appearances. Outside of the red-hot Adam Scott, whose price isn’t quite as attractive, Stenson is the safest bet on the board this week. 

Zach Johnson (74.0)- Is Johnson slumping? He’s missed the cut twice in his last four events and hasn’t cracked the top-10 since January’s Sony Open, so most bettors are treating him with extreme caution this week. This has resulted in his price ballooning all the way to 74.0, which is ridiculously good value for a player like Johnson at a place like Bay Hill, where he’s had plenty of success (eleven made cuts and five top-11 finishes in 12 career appearances). Furthermore, any concerns about a stretch of poor form seem to be unfounded when you take a closer look at Johnson’s recent results– we last saw him at the WGC-Cadillac, where he played three beautiful rounds before blowing up on Sunday, and just three starts ago he finished 14th in Phoenix. He’s has a week to rest and Bay Hill has been very good to him in the past… don’t be surprised if Johnson silences his critics in a big way this week.

William McGirt (108.0)- McGirt is a definite longshot– at age 36 he’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, and his game is rather nondescript and ordinary. As longshots go, though, he’s a “live” one this week and shouldn’t be overlooked. Though he’s taken the last couple of weeks off, McGirt has been playing very well of late, finishing 8th in the Honda Classic (his last start) and 20th in February’s Northern Trust Open. He’s now posted top-30 finishes in 7 of his last 9 starts and most of his best golf comes on Bermuda-covered courses in the southeast United States– courses just like Bay Hill (this shouldn’t come as a surprise considering McGirt is a native Southerner who grew up on Bermuda grass). He’s made four cuts in five career appearances at this event, as a matter of fact, and he finished 8th in 2013. At better than 100/1, you could do a lot worse than McGirt.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Justin Rose (1.76) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.91)

Matsuyama is a class player who netted a top-25 in this tournament last year, but he’s been very inconsistent of late and he posted an ugly second-round 81 in his last event, the WGC-Cadillac (that was following a Withdrawal from his previous event, the Honda). Rose, meanwhile, has finished 17th or better is five of his last six starts and has contended at Bay Hill in the past, posting top-3 finishes here twice. Recommendation: Rose at 1.76

Ryan Moore (1.91) vs. Matt Kuchar (1.91)

Kuchar has really been trending in the right direction lately, finishing 11th-28th-8th in his last three starts. And while he hasn’t come to Bay Hill in over a decade, he’s never seemed to have a problem with the layout, making the cut in all four of his appearances, and the course sure seems like it would be a natural fit for his game. I think Moore may be a tad overvalued here after a strong showing at the Valspar last week. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.91