Vegas Line Moves: Week 5
Las Vegas is the epicenter of NFL betting, so examining line moves and betting patterns at the biggest Vegas sportsbooks can be instructive. Here are a few lines that have been on the move in Week 5:
* VegasInsider “consensus” data used
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas opening line: Pittsburgh -4 Vegas current line: Pittsburgh -6.5
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -6.5
The Jags have been far and away the worst team in the NFL to back over the past year and a half, covering just 6 times in their last 25 games despite being an underdog in every game. It’s no surprise, then, that bettors jumped all over Pittsburgh this week when the Steelers opened as just a 4-point road favorite. We must remember, though, that the Steelers just lost to a team that seemed to be every bit as bad as the Jags– Tampa entered last week’s game on the heels of a 42-point loss to Atlanta and they ranked last in the league in both total offense and points scored. Still, are you willing to bet your hard-earned money on Jacksonville, a team that just finished a historically bad 4-game stretch and will be starting 6 rookies on offense this Sunday?
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Vegas opening line: New York -1.5 Vegas current line: New York -4
BETDAQ Line: New York -4.5
Both of these teams have been extremely inconsistent this season but bettors clearly prefer the Giants in this matchup, and it’s easy to see why after watching Atlanta’s game in Minnesota last week. The Falcons have an excellent quarterback– Matt Ryan– and a wide receiving corps that may be the league’s best, but their “bright side” ends there. They have a terrible offensive line and only Jacksonville has been worse on defense this season, as the Falcons are surrendering a staggering 429.8 total yards per game. Of course, their opponent on Sunday– New York– has struggled mightily at times on offense this year, and the Falcons can most definitely put up some points (they lead the league in total offense and rank 2nd in points scored). The Giants may win this one in a rout, but if you’re feeling greedy I could certainly understand an Atlanta moneyline bet.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas opening line: Dallas -3.5 Vegas current line: Dallas -6
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -6
After three consecutive wins, including a nationally televised stomping of New Orleans on Monday night, the Cowboys are riding a wave of public adulation. The Texans have been surprisingly good this season, but they’ve yet to beat anyone that is truly respected by the betting public and their 14 losses last year still linger in the minds of many. So… does that mean this is a good “sell high” opportunity? Has the public gone a bit overboard in pushing this line all the way up to 6? I will say that I had a definite Dallas lean when the number was 3.5 (as did everyone else, apparently), but if it climbs all the way to 7 I’m backing the other side. The Texans have a good defense– they’ll be able to slow the suddenly run-dominated Dallas attack– and the Cowboys still can’t be trusted on the defensive side of the ball. However, Houston has a pedestrian offense that ranks in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every major statistical category. Dallas is favored here for a valid reason, but any more expansion of the line would make a Houston bet very tempting.
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos
Vegas opening line: Denver -8.5 Vegas current line: Denver -7
BETDAQ Line: Denver -7.5
The Broncos have been a bad bet so far this season, failing to cover in any of their three games. Their offense, which was historically great in 2013, just hasn’t been the same, and their defense surrendered 50 combined points in games against Indianapolis and Seattle. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are undefeated and one of the NFL’s surprise teams. They’ve done it despite playing a backup quarterback in their past two games, which has hampered the offense a bit, and despite facing three teams that are currently .500 or better. The Arizona defense is just so good that it hasn’t mattered– they’ve limited all three of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, trailing only Cincinnati in points allowed. That defense is why the betting public balked at the 8.5-point number in this situation, and a nearly double-digit line does seem like a bit much against a team as good as Arizona. Still, it’s worth noting that Denver is coming off a bye week and we still don’t know whether Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer will be healthy enough to play. The love for Arizona is certainly understandable, but I’d advise bettors to be careful with this one.
