BRAVO! DAQMAN BANKER WINS: Bravo Zolo (WON 4-6) landed Daqman’s maximum-stakes banker bet in the BETDAQ nursery at Kempton Park last night, giving him a narrow profit on the day. There’s another banker this afternoon.
HUGE BETDAQ ARC OFFERS: Betdaq layers have come together to provide amazing value in the ante-post list for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The orange added up to only 107% this morning. That compares with 123% SP Total in the trade return on last year’s race.
HORSE-BY-HORSE ABC GUIDE: Now here’s Daqman’s ABC check on the stats in a horse-by-horse guide which includes Tapestry, likely to be supplemented this morning. This is the last Arc on the Longchamp course before renovations.
‘A WAY’ TO GET DOUBLE THE ARC ODDS
A Aged three (9 out of 11 and 16 out of 20))
B Trained in France or Germany (8 out of 11)
C Won or placed Prix Niel or Prix Vermeille (8 out of 12)
D Group winner last time (7 out of 10)
E Filly (won 4 of the last 6)
It all hangs on the pace of the race. This year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe contains stayers who need a pace and 10-furlong horses whose connections are hoping for more of a sprint finish off slow early sections. The draw (later) is also vital on ground which is drying ahead of Sunday’s meeting.
The big offers if my ABC check is any guide are about Dolniya at 48.0 in the orange this morning, though as low as 25-1 with bookmakers. Just A Way, 11-2 in a place, is almost double that at 11.0 on BETDAQ.
Ivanhowe, 12-1 and 14-1 generally, is 18.0 in the orange. Ruler Of The World, Kingston Hill, Prince Of Gibraltar and Flintshire were also big on BETDAQ in a fantastic 107% punter-friendly total, when I checked out the offers.
ABCD Ectot
The choice of jockey Gregory Benoist over Avenue Certain, Ectot has had two long breaks before adding more to his four-timer of last summer and autumn.
To make it six he first beat the French 2,000 Guineas winner, Karakontie, in the Fointainebleau after nearly five months off, then skipped another five months before landing the Prix Niel trial over Grand Prix de Paris third, Teletext.
ABCE Dolniya
Hat-trick winner up to Group-2 level in June, the Aga Khan’s improving daughter of Azamour came back in the Prix Vermeille, late on the scene, third, just in front of Treve. Dam half-sister to Arc winner, Dalakhani.
ABDE Avenir Certain
Unbeaten run of six races inside a year, including French 1,000 Guineas and Prix Diane (French Oaks), a rare double last achieved by Zarkava, who went on to win the Arc in the same year (2008). Her trainer is convinced she’s in the same league but can she really step up the two furlongs more?
AB Montviron
From the same Arc-winning (1996) stable as Ectot, seems to be his pacemaker, having won only a maiden and finished last of five in a Listed last time out.
AB Prince Gibraltar
Had what Racing Post racereaders describe as a ‘horrible’ run behind The Grey Gatsby when third in the French Derby and took a long time to find his stride, second in the Grand Prix de Paris, with Teletext third, before that one ran up to Ectot in the Niel. Rain probably essential.
ABD Free Port Lux
A long way adrift in the French Derby and first-time blinkers didn’t help much when fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris.
ADE Harp Star
Japanese 1,000 Guineas winner, second in their Oaks. Needs further improvement and a good draw, since she is noted for exaggerated waiting tactics and a potent finish. The Japanese have been second in the Arc three times in four years.
AD Kingston Hill
Racing Post Trophy winner, he was Derby favourite over the winter but his reappearance eighth in the 2,000 Guineas suggested he needed a trip.
Sure enough, he matched strides with Australia at the finish of the Epsom Derby and really came into his own when taking the St leger. Leger winners have been second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth in the Arc but have lacked the finishing kick over this trip. The drying ground is against him.
AE Taghrooda
The wonder of the hour when winning the King George, backing up her Oaks success and completing a four-timer, but she could not fend of Tapestry, outstayed by her at York, though said to have been in season. Will need everything to drop right at Longchamp.
AE Tapestry
It was one of the upsets of the year when she turned over Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks and her last-day let-down when only ninth of 10 at Leopardstown can be excused for the way the race was run, her being hampered and the drop back to a mile. Unlucky loser of the Irish Oaks before that when saddle slipped back.
BD Ivanhowe
Though a four-year-old, has had just seven races in his life, culminating in shock defeat of odds-on Sea The Moon but Sea The Moon was under a cloud and that was his last race. Stays well and can sprint finish off a strong pace.
BE Siljan’s Saga
Narrowly lost out to Noble Mission in the Grand Prix de Saint-cloud (winner disqualified) but that’s her favourite track and she was down the field in the Vermeille.
BE Treve
After three odds-on defeats in a row, only fourth in the Vermeille, came an obvious admission that the 2013 winner wasn’t as good as last year. But gallops reports over the weekend suggest she may have turned the corner.
B Flintshire
Grand Prix de Paris winner but then only eighth in this last year. Coronation Cup runner-up at the Epsom Derby meeting, before being behind Siljan’s Saga in the Grand Prix de Saint-cloud and second in the once important trial, the Prix Foy.
B Spiritjim
Disqualified after winning the Grand Prix de Saint-cloud, then behind Ruler Of The World and Flintshire in the Prix Foy trial.
D Just A Way
A superb four-timer over the last year but no one win has been beyond 10 furlongs. Huge performance at Meydan in March, smashing the track record by nearly two-and-a-half seconds. Will the five-year-old entire stay the Arc trip? The Japanese have been second three times in four years.
D Ruler Of The World
The Epsom Derby hero of 2013, seventh behind Treve in this last year, won his first race since last June when beating Flintshire and Spiritjim in the Prix Foy trial last month.
E Chicquita
Won the 2013 Irish Oaks after running second to Treve in the French equivalent. Not seen again until second in the Blandford Stakes last month, the winner having been Epsom Oaks runner-up to Taghrooda.
– Al Kazeem
Sixth last year after a fabulous five-timer, which included the Eclipse, but did win over 1m 4f as a four-year-old.
– Gold Ship
Five times a Grade-1 winner but failed to fight off Harp Star over 10 furlongs in August, though has won twice at 15f.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) GERMANY CALLING (5.10 Southwell)
BET 8.5pts win THE STEWARD (7.15 Kempton Park)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 2pts win treble VAIHAU (2.10 Warwick), GERMANY CALLING (5.10 Southwell) and THE STEWARD (7.15 Kempton Park)
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