A slight delay on this week’s BETDAQ column as the first ATP 1000 event gets started on Thursday afternoon at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in California.
A brief update on last week’s events and it was to be another blank as Kevin Anderson bowed out to John Isner on his comeback match from shoulder surgery, Roger Federer suffered a surprising enough defeat to Tomas Berdych despite holding numerous match points, and David Ferrer demolished in the Acapulco final by a near-flawless Rafael Nadal. Tournament winners for the week were Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in Dubai and Acapulco respectively, both of whom were favourites, along with enigmatic (if a little bonkers!) Latvian Ernests Gulbis over at Delray Beach.
As mentioned previously, the biggest event of 2013 since the Australian Open commences in a little over 24 hours time and every member of the world’s top 32 take their places in the main draw, all of which are vying for the winner’s purse of $1,000,000.
ATP Indian Wells
Novak Djokovic has to be the bet this week. Since his defeat to Sam Querrey in Paris in October 2012, Djokovic has won 18 consecutive matches spanning four months and is playing some quite breathtaking tennis at present. Champion in 2008 and 2011, Djokovic has proven course form and looks to have been handed a plum draw. Nothing is a foregone conclusion at the highest level in this game but it’s difficult to foresee Djokovic struggling against the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic, or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, particularly given the quality of his play at present. His toughest test may well be a likely semi final match against either Andy Murray or Juan Martin Del Potro and I wouldn’t bet against him coming through that one either. 5/4 is a price I’ve heard bounded around and whilst on the short side, looks a most solid proposition over the next ten days.
I wouldn’t dream of patronising column readers with a 5/4 shot that anyone could pick out with their eyes closed so for those who look for something a little bigger in price, Rafael Nadal at something around 10/1 looks very interesting indeed. Having lost just the one match since his comeback to the tour, Nadal looked back to his imperious best at the weekend with a hammering of compatriot David Ferrer on his beloved red clay. Under normal circumstances, there’s not a chance Nadal would be a double figure price in an event of this nature but to an extent, Indian Wells will be more of a fact-finding mission for Nadal as he looks to test out his knees on the more unforgiving American hard courts. The 10/1 clearly comes with risks as Rafa could withdraw at the first sign of any problems with his knee, as surely Roland Garros is what Nadal’s 2013 season revolves around. I was encouraged by the way Nadal spoke about his troublesome knees after his victory in Mexico and if they don’t give him too many issues, he could very much continue in the same form that has seen him collect two titles already in 2013. I’m not suggesting for a second that he will win the event but if he doesn’t show any adverse effects when encountering the new surface, I think his price could contract quite substantially, leaving 10/1 a very distant memory.
Elsewhere, Andy Murray returns since his final defeat to Djokovic in Australia and he’ll be looking to go one better than his 2009 loss to Rafael Nadal. Roger Federer perhaps isn’t playing his best stuff currently but is always a threat and shouldn’t be ignored. Tomas Berdych will be looking to continue where he left off in Dubai , although he’s never made it past the last eight in California. Juan Martin Del Potro might be the final name for any shortlist, especially with conditions likely to suit. It’s difficult to say quite whether he’s 100% fit though and clearly comes with risks. Beyond these, someone would need to have the fortnight of their lives to trouble the top players this week and I’d be quite surprised if the eventual champion was someone unfancied.
Scanning the draw for some seeded players that could find themselves in a spot of bother early on, 14th seed Juan Monaco could be vulnerable. Other than a couple of Davis Cup wins on home soil, Monaco has played three, lost three competitive matches in 2013 and hasn’t even picked up a set. Perhaps the Argentinian has a few niggling problems but could be worth taking on, particularly if Australian Marinko Matosevic can beat Spanish wildcard Tommy Robredo in round one. Whilst it will be nice to see 32nd seed Mardy Fish back on a tennis court after his documented heart problems, he could also be worth taking on, given the lack of tennis he’s played of late. Another wildcard Tim Smyczek could cause 26th seed Martin Klizan a few problems, 27th seed Florian Mayer won’t look forward to taking on either David Goffin or Viktor Troicki, 24th seed Jerzy Janowicz could come unstuck against David Nalbandian or Marcel Granollers, and 20th seed Andreas Seppi could be dispatched by talented Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis.
In summary, my main bet this week will be on Novak Djokovic (and quite a sizeable one too) but I just cannot ignore Nadal at a rather tasty looking price so I’ll be on the pair of them, hoping Djokovic makes the kind of serene progress I’m anticipating he might, along with Nadal who may grind his way through to the last eight and possibly further.
SELECTIONS
Selection # 1 – Novak Djokovic
Selection # 2 – Rafael Nadal
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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