CHELTENHAM A WEEK AHEAD: WHAT THE STATS SAY: DAY 3: Venetia Williams has 15 entries in a race she’s won twice on the Thursday next week at Cheltenham. Daqman researches the Day 3 stats.
DAQMAN’S NAP WAS 8.8 ON BETDAQ THIS MORNING: Daqman says of today: ‘Racing remains tricky with the change of going but Tutchec will think he’s running free at Carlisle (2.40) on better ground and with a stone and a half off his back.’ He was 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Even the trainer’s hack might win at Cheltenham. BETDAQ is opening more and more races to offers at the festival, and some surprise packets are emerging, even among the fancied horses.
Rouge Et Blanc, at 18.0 for the opening day’s Rewards4Racing Novices’ handicap Chase, could be saddled by Oliver Sherwood in his racing colours, which must include red in the form of a faint blush of both cheeks.
The eight-year-old French-bred was retired by Sherwood and missed out a whole season, in which time he was the trainer’s hack.
In Oliver’s defence, Rouge Et Blanc had had three wind operations, all of them seeming failures, but one day his daughter was riding him out and reported that ‘he didn’t make a noise anymore.’
So it is that Rouge Et Blanc came in from the cold and is on a hat-trick of wins after scoring at Huntingdon and Exeter, with Cheltenham in mind for a daring third leg.
Rouge Et Blanc is 18.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing. Now here is my stats-based look at Day 3:
CHELTENHAM THURSDAY MARCH 14: World Hurdle: Since the inception of the race in its present form in 1972, only five horses aged nine have won, the last three of them being follow-up wins by established champions. Similarly only three eight-year-olds have won as new champions since 1976.
This year there must be a new kid on the block after Big Buck’s retirement: the record of 14 winning six-year-olds and 11 seven-year-olds suggests that it will be a younger horse.
The figure of 17 of the last 22 winners having run at the festival before is, of course, inflated by the sequence horses, like Big Buck’s, Baracouda and Inglis Drever who altogether took nine renewals from 2002 and 2012.
New champions this century (before any sequence of success) recently had ratings coming into the race of 170, 157, 157, 168 and 163.
Oscar Whisky will run off 167 next Thursday, Reve De Sivola off 166 and Peddlers Cross 165, with Bog Warrior on 159 and Monksland 158. Three of the four (not Bog Warrior) ran at the meeting last March.
Daqman’s ante-post bets: MONKSLAND at 11.0 and BOG WARRIOR at 16.0 on BETDAQ
Ryanair Chase: CD for course-and-distance winner appears against most past winners of this and C for course winner against all bar the 2012 hero, Riverside Theatre, but he’d finished fifth in the Arkle the previous year.
A narrow official-ratings parameter of 162 to 168 traps four of the last five winners. Albertas Run (168), First Lieutenant (167), Cue Card (165) and Menorah (163) have all won over the course and the distance.
Kim Muir Horses aged eight and nine have won in 12 of the last 15 seasons. In three of the last four seasons, the winner carried between 11st 6lb and 11st 12lb., the quartet winning off ratings of 142, 134, 140 and 139.
STATS PICK OF THE DAY Venetian Williams, currently enjoying a super-successful season, has won Thursday’s Byrne Group Plate twice.
Her two winners came off ratings of 136 and 139 and, in fact, seven out of nine winners of this have struck from the narrow band of 130 to 139.
Inside that parameter this year, Venetia has five of her 15 entries, including what the market says is her main hope, Kapga De Cerisy.
Generally available at 12-1 and 14-1, Kapga De Cerisy is as low as 10-1 with Ladbrokes, despite the strength of market leader Ballynagour who will race off 143.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.1pts win MITCHELL’S WAY (2.10 Carlisle)
BET 2.5pts win (nap) TUTCHEC (2.40 Carlisle)
BET 4pts win CHESIL BEACH BOY and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) IF IN DOUBT (3.00 Wincanton)
BET 1.5pts win BISHOPHILL JACK (3.45 Carlisle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Ruben Cotter (2.30 Wincanton), Tutchec (2.40 Carlisle) and Bishophill Jack (3.45 Carlisle)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated
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